MATTWOLVES 3
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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3
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The only slight concern here is the lack of cold uppers to our east, especially as the uppers to our northwest look much colder!
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1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
Its so up and down in here its unreal. Get a grip people. Count to 10 and start again. The models are only just getting to grips with evolutions after the cold onslaught in the us(raging mild shown on gfs as all but gone) as I have said numerous times in the last week. I would trust ecm 100% more than the gfs or ukmo. Its verification stats are miles better. If the ecm shows and easterly trying to develope again tonight. I'm sure the others will follow shortly. PS ukmo could easily follow the 00z ecm after 144hrs we just can't see the charts. This winter is gonna end with something good. Biggest ecm of winter coming up I'm in my opinion. good look coldies.
Good call, ecm a big improvement on earlier model runs, don't no where you got ya crystal ball, but giz a lend!! Thrilling commentary on that ecm 12z run chaps, I was almost as excited as Kathy bates in misery when she was waiting for pual to finish the book, not as that turned out to well, not for him anyway, here's hoping for further upgrades, over to you gfs 18z
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Perhaps he will go over too the other site, Brian Gaze and Gavin Partridge etc, there site is brilliant to,
I've split my sides laughing here, they been saying on that side winter was over in October, anyway this is netweather so let's have less of the bigging up of other sites please
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8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
With the way this winter has gone mate it’s hard to see a good outcome, we’ve had much better potential than this all winter so far and achieved pretty much nothing in terms of a proper cold spell, not writing anything off I think March could be the month again if we get anything, but based on current output I can’t see a viable way of us getting a prolonged cold spell any time soon.
Pivoting, unrelenting azores heights and a strong polar vortex in a terrible position have been prominent all winter and show no sign of packing up.
I see where your coming from, but with high pressure building next week it ain't gonna need much adjustment to bring in a much colder continental feed,, you maybe right with March, I personally think devoloments could get interesting in the final 3rd of this month, let's just wait and see
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Writing is on the wall mate, dreadful 12z runs... GFS looks absolute awful even at day 10 or so look at that PV, ominous signs IMO, love cold/snow as much as anyway but must be realistic, the prognosis is poor.
Sometimes Weathizard when the prognosis is poor it pays to get a second or 3rd opinion and await a better outcome. You can't put paid to the next 4 weeks on the back of several afternoon runs, especially as non of the for mentioned models have covered themselves in much glory this winter
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14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
UKMO - 0.5/10
GFS - 2/10
ICON - 4/10
GEM - 0/10
And cfs 10/10
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Just now, kold weather said:
Man that low is severe on 12z icon. Really do need that tracking into the channel. I know it reduces snow opportunity but you really don't want yo be on the south side of the low...you'd basically be looking at a one in 10-20 year wind event in that setup.
How's about a 10-20 year snow event kold, this could end up a similar event to last Thursday but with much more wind, bets are on for the exact track of this feature
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12 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:
Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?
I would say he is probably as correct as the ones on here pointing to an early spring
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Cfs is consistent with this. COld pool out east, perhaps this is the model that takes up residence at express headquarters!! Who knows but its like squirrel with a nut, it just won't give it up
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As the song goes, what's that coming over the hill is it a cold blob or a mild damp squib, my god here we go again, it's the 6th of Feb and the coroners reports are already coming out on winter!! Met say one thing, beeb say another, in truth we are no closer to the truth than we were 2 months ago. I will say one thing though, it's the longest period of blocking and Easterly winds never to happened I've come across. Perhaps it's better we take a little step back and see how things devolop this month before we consign it to the garbage bins. As for talking up next winters chances, I would say just a little premature, being as we are struggling at 5 days out, perhaps we leave that little luxery to the daily express
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Looking at the london graph its trending up again at the end, hardly any GEFS members go below -10c now and no sooner had i been laughed at for my comment, SS posted the BBC monthly and guess what, no signs of cold and computers suggest mild until March 5th.
I certainly wasn't one laughing, but I would put much more faith in the guys who post on here than any of there predictions Feb.
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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Meanwhile the ext ens are not great on both suites, cannot see any signs of an Easterly.
Expect another 16-30 downgrade.
Nope, steady as she goes with the update. Still the same colder Easterly prognosis still showing
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So from going through just 3 pages this morning I've gone from the euphoric state of snow and force 9 gales to 16day blow torch heat predictions from gfs, now its don't worry about it, winter next year looking much more promising, perhaps we have some early background signals emerging to show this. God my nerves are frayed, please don't do this to me, not again
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10 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:
Happy Valentines Day. Here's a stinky smelly looking GFS+210 for my missus. Ughh.. less of these charts are needed!
The horribly famous Big piece of pizza slice wedge. One for the bins...... Next
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13 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:
I know this isn’t the correct thread but how the heck can the express get away posting front page headlines like that?? There’s no modelling suggesting snow Armageddon via a polar vortex arrival anywhere! Gripes me they can get away with it
Think that was me gerrin a bit excited after viewing the latest cps run, but give em chance, as soon as we have the next slight frost armaggeddon vortex destruction will probably be the next headline, hey, it works for me, I buy the paper everyday, probably why I'm one of the worst amateur weather predictors on here,
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6 minutes ago, Highland Blizzard said:
Well the cold continues up here in the Highlands this being our 21st continuous day of snow cover so plenty of old air still about. Looking through the latest charts I don't think it would take much of a swing for cold to return further south too.
That's really cheered me up, and just to think I nearly took a winter break there, but decided to wait for the fun and games to start down in the midlands
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22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Just for everyone’s info Gavs videos is @Summer Sun here on netweather and we all know what weather he likes . Only joking Gav
Well I be damned, I never actually new that. I think he also posts on weather outlook, I dont think anybody is putting him down, just making a statement on how difficult it's been for all the met guys this year, to be fair I think his historical weather reviews are 1st class.
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18 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*
If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....
Do you think they maybe on to something, its certainly lurking!
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6 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
Thats cause Yamkin messaged them on twitter and told then the CFS was showing a BFTE in 2 weeks time *rolleyes*
If You think im lying, go look at his twitter feed.....
Oh, I thought it was James madden and piers corbyn, love them 2, they been forecasting a 3 month freeze now since 1998, tell you what one of these days they gonna get it right, its sod law ain't it
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Anyway the daily express talking up a vortex armaggeddon so that's me on board
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32 minutes ago, Don said:
Latest Gavs Weather Vids outlook paints a pretty bleak picture for the rest of February with very little evidence of any cold. The long range models have flipped to mild also, so another straw gone. I said yesterday I would wait until mid month before throwing in the towel, but I'm really on the verge of chucking it in now!!
Because gav said so! He was also projecting a very cold blocked winter. There are still signs from the met we could go colder, it's not out of the question. The way I see it now Don is the more the big guns start to play it down, the more chance we have of getting something, such is the disaster its been for most meteorological agencies.
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30 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:
great innit.. Darren Bett on the beeb forecast - 50 to 70mph winds on Friday, but at least it'll be mild.
Smile at the end... and then Fiona says 'thanks very much'
Yeah, thanks very much.. probably going to have to get the roof repair guy out again
Yeh, happiest I've seen him for ages, he looked bloody furious when predicting the snow and cold the other week!
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2 minutes ago, Drifter said:
That looks more like Donald Trump's lie detector test.
When questioned about global warming not happening,
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1 minute ago, Stephen W said:
After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now. It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up. Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term. Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter. It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps. As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive. Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we'd never have noticed..
That's just my pure layman's assessment..Meanwhile, i've struggled to see a snowflake, let alone any lying snow and the chances of this winter passing without a decent snowfall in my locale seems to be increasing as we march on through Feb. Still time I know, but signs are weak at present.
If you lived on the eastern seaboard then you wouldn't agree with that, they to have not been dealt a very favourable hand.
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Dohhhh, that's more like it