MATTWOLVES 3
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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3
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So summing up this mornings data, we have hlb devoloping, westerly winds incoming, a bit of snow, no snow, red warning snow, from a foot of snow to a cm of slush! Its gonna be north, its gonna be south, its gonna be west, its gonna be east. Tell you what guys if all of this comes off, it's gonna be one hell of a weather event,
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One thing that really gets my goat up on here is the sheer amount of posters who see a bad run or 2, or there forecasts of snowmageddon not looking likely, simply say...... That's me finished, see you next year, that's winter over this year, told ya so, ec 46 going the wrong way, next it will be glosea, bla bla bla bla, last year it was beast coming to late, sun to high in sky, ice day impossible, for godsake its like watching repeat episodes of elderado,
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12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Where can one view the 18z ECM please?
News to me! Thought ecm only ran 0z and 12z daily
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1 minute ago, Don said:
As Summer Sun mentioned above, according to Fergie, the metoffice are going to wait for a few more runs before changing the outlook, so tomorrow’s update could well be great again. Can’t deny the long term trends are really not good atm. Think I may take a break from the models.,,,,,
Could you really say any senior forecaster as covered themselves in glory this winter Don, you could argue that a lot of the posts made by the so called knowledgeable are down right laughable, with all these great back ground signals bringing nothing to note, then perhaps the signals of nothing happening at all now may prove to be the catalyst!!! Trends Don can vary on a daily basis, what looks naff today could be sublime come the weekend, like I have always said to people, long range models are completely useless in this type of climate, and for me they have not improved inside the last 20 years, 30 years of following long range forecasts and I could probably count one 1 hand how many have been proved correct, stick with it Don, keep the faith,
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9 minutes ago, Don said:
What a sobering evening it’s been! Would be very surprised if there’s no change in the metoffice update tomorrow.
See you around 1 tomorrow Don just to remind you about another great met update!!
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7 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:
Why?
It’s used as general guidance for patterns. If our weather had turned out like the EC46 had suggested EXACTLY for the last 3 months we would all be buried and waiting for spring. We can’t even give reliable forecasts for weather systems 1 day in advance, let alone worry about month forecasts.
EC46 is one of many that are practically useless for macro forecasting. The way this winter has gone, the fact it’s moved away from a cold solution has probably just increased our chances!
Very true, any experienced forecaster worth his weight in gold will tell you that forecasting the weather behind 5 days is going some, so I fail to see how long range models can grasp it, like you say for 6 weeks we have been blocked, which just ain't been the case, now it's flipped just watch the blocking take a grip. Be interesting to see if met use it to influence tomorrow's update though!!!!!
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Seriously, I think the Brazilians have nailed this, they make great coffee, so why not, anyway probably just as likely to be correct as the gfs model
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44 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
Ecm!!!! Who needs it, ba ba booooooom, let's face it nasa live in space, so they gotter no more than anyone, even the met, lol
Ooops it's all gone a bit Pete tongue, never liked nasa anyway, all that money and they still can't produce a decent model,
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Ecm!!!! Who needs it, ba ba booooooom, let's face it nasa live in space, so they gotter no more than anyone, even the met, lol
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
At work today so just now gathering my thoughts. There's a lot going on, to be honest. Let's start with tomorrow, I think this will end up a damp squib for most. Latest HIRLAM cumulative snow charts to T38, more patchy than the earlier run, so screams marginality.
Much higher hopes for Thursday, latest ICON-EU snow depth T93:
Incidentally I don't like the snow depth charts on any model, they may work in totally frozen parts of the globe, but in the UK, with marginal set ups, rain- snow, snow-rain events where melting is crucial they are absolute rubbish. For that reason I prefer the cumulative snow charts, reasonably reliable, and you can make your own judgment about how much melts. Posting the snow depth for Thursday because the cumulative snow would partly be Tuesday. Hope that makes sense!
ECM op looks to make much more of the Thursday low for the south, so this system really needs watching, so I'd treat the ICON-EU chart above as a baseline, which could well be exceeded.
And the longer timeframe. I think next week could be quite settled, cool, higher pressure. ECM T240:
Beyond that, the big question is will the Russian high move west, or connect with a Scandi ridge. Seems plausible to me, and is probably the scenario behind the Met Office hints at very cold weather from the east or northeast. Deep cold is on he march, whether and when it reaches us is clouded by freezing fog at the moment. Optimistic though!
Very well rounded post there and still plenty to be optimistic about
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1 hour ago, 78/79 said:
Do me a favour, If every 8 day chart had verified this winter ,I would have been buried in snow,and freezing my nuts off weeks ago.I know next to nothing about interpreting charts,but even I have sussed out that at that range, especially this winter you might as well put some seaweed outside of your back door.and get the same degree of accuracy.
LOL, or hang a cone, perhaps even check the tree bark and frog spawn, probably be a more accurate outcome
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1 minute ago, swfc said:
Who's us!!!
Worried in the fact its getting towards the commute, so I would expect areas north of London, especially high ground could be in for 10cm
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52 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me
Post of the day, well said
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5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:
....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!
It states very cold during February, and even if it is March, then great a repeat of last year, go stand outside and tell me if you feel a raging westerly wind and rain followed by showers!! The second beast is coming!!
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33 minutes ago, igloo said:
sure would but none have performed very well with the ecm 46 being the worst by miles
The ec 46 igloo has relentlessly showed blocking, and tbh there's still a good chance of it being proven correct. One thing it hasn't showed is complete zonal, and I would say in that respect its been proven correct, tonight's update should be very interesting. My hunch is it will hold firm
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That certainly is at loggerheads with weather online prediction of less cold conditions next week, I can see next week being crunch time regarding the rest of feb
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Yep - it’s glosea btw, not mogreps which is showing the reverse flows through Feb (moreso after the first third of the month I believe)
Good call Blue, when the met Office went astray with some previous mild winter predictions, which turned out cold, it was mentioned the input of taking global warming data into account was causing the problems with long range predictions, it was also noted that on the back of so many mild winters the long range models were struggling to sniff out a pattern change
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12 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:
Give it a day or so..
I've been hearing that quote since end of December now Lloyds, I'm pretty sure many on hear Consider the met ameteur, check the facts, they are looked up on globally as the best in business!!!
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If I recall they didn't back down in the run up to the beast, yet others organisations were skeptical, I actually recall the BBC 2 days prior to the snow event saying it would be a very cold but dry air mass!! There in house model is clearly at loggerheads with other models, which is quite surprising being as the designer of mogreps programmed the effect of global warming into it, but hey ho, they just ain't backing down!!!
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So much for an end to inyabackyardism!!!! Come on folks, if you bring this system any further south it will end up in Spain!! How's about just firming up on the snow potential and intensity so fourth, rather than its in my back yard. Folk on here are gonna go ballistic if they miss out this week, I'm now counting down for the, winter is over posts!!!!
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A very good summary from Jo this morning, no point in taking current yellow zones as gospel at the moment, pretty sure a few Amber warning could show in next 24 hours, Thursday looking the more problematic event, but perhaps Wales in to Midlands and North West getting quite bad, either watly folk for the first time this winter, something actually to take note and get excited by, where's frosty when ya need him, love that guys enthusiasm, enjoy
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here's hoping for a continuation of the 0z run tomorrow, just loving the dip in the jet stream,
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11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
So we have a mattstoke and now a mattwolves and who knows maybe even a mattsnow this week
lets just enjoy what this week has in store of course there will be some disappointments but also some very excited people around, let’s not worry about longer term just yet especially after the crap winter we have had so far
All we need now mark is a jack frost, I do hear you though, so far it's been a let down, but I feel similarities to last year, ie, it's all back loaded again, December milder than average, January could end up above average, even with late cold spell, so Feb really does need to deliver
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5 minutes ago, Mark88 said:
It looks like there are a lot of opportunities for snow this week or...I've read these forums for a long time but have only been a member for 2 years (and made a handful of posts.) I've just read the last 10 or so pages and to make a summary: We have a low pressure system on Tuesday that may give snow and or rain to most areas of England or Wales, but it may track too far North/South/into France, but don't worry there will be corrections upto t+0. Then we have another low pressure system on Thursday which may again give snow, rain, rain to snow or snow to rain for most of the country. After this, winter is officially over except for the reloads and potential easterly? I don't mean to sound facetious, I love the discussions and seeing the models but what must new people think? It's giving me a headache which I guess, ironically reflects the actual position of the models at the moment...Still opportunities abound. I'm quite excited for some more actual winter weather.
Good Post Mark, its not easy for a newbie, I to go to bed at night with a spinning head, read all the latest data from some of the great posters on here, check the latest met, net weather, weather online, and at the end of the day I'm still no wiser, gorra love it tho ay ayy
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here's hoping for a continuation of the 0z run tomorrow, just loving the dip in the jet stream,
Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Something worth baring in mind is weather apps are useless in this type of weather, met office included, have that drummed into me from Jon hammond updates regular