[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

35 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Copied from tweets

 

What do we know about tjis geezer people?

Never really heard of him, but based on what he is saying, I love the guy already

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

What you say is valid enough in theory - but in practice I think it misses the point. The forecast by all of those who saw the winter as particularly cold was based on vortex disruption allied with a pattern of pacific forcing that, going into winter, looked favourable. However the downwell has not managed to produce an easterly surge on the trop, and so we have quite a meriodional pattern globally (see the significant current US trough) but without blocking transpiring for any length of time at high latitude. Given that the peak of this SSW signal will be in the next week to 10 days the fact that NWP is now resolving to a pattern that is not taking the bait in terms of blocking makes it rather counter intuitive to assume that the pattern will peak once the forcing starts to subside later in the month. I'm not saying that this cannot happen - anything in weather is possible in theory - but the odds swing against it.

Add to that the reality that we are entering the most beneficial section of the current MJO cycle, and still no major signal for a cold high lat block. Later in Feb that is also likely to move back towards less favourable phases and therefore hard to see an initiation of blocking in that context.

Is it possible that a Siberian high might establish and retrogress given some indications of this for mid Feb? Yes - of course. It is possible. The Met's text makes that very clear in the wording that this is possible....but note that they make it clear that their models are suggesting this possibility is fading. 

What I'm trying to say is that we had a definite window of opportunity around mid Jan and into early Feb to see a pattern establish that could then SUSTAIN through February and maybe beyond....but if it doesnt establish before mid Feb then it gets harder to see how it initiates a deep cold pattern after that. Dont get me wrong - your statement is correct in so far as I could end up talking utter rubbish here and be proved wrong - and i'll happily wipe that egg off my face and celebrate with the best of coldies....but I dont see it.

And the gradually downgrading Met forecast - which is exactly how you play it if your models suddenly about face but you dont want to look daft - reinforces it for me. And given the SSW progression and MJO cycle as we have it, I dont see a sudden reversal back to a better pattern. Once again it is counter intuitive.

I'll be posting less from now on unless an unexpected major change occurs - but I'll certainly be producing an analysis at the end of things in around 4/5 weeks's time (assuming no sudden Beast arrival!!) which will look back but also look forward to the next winter season. I'm interested in the fact that we have had 2 extreme SSWs within 10 months of each other and wondering whether this is luck or a reflection of signals that are aligning at the moment to produce a run of years where our chances of SSWs increases. Where does low solar fit....and how does the pacific profile this season suggest things may develop next year? What is the likely QBO setup?

Lots of winter left: 4 - 6 weeks is a long time in weather terms. Hoping things may change, but my mindset as definitely altered from expectation to hope. 

Great points as usual, and the thinking of your SSW prognosis is a valid point, low solar activity for one. It could also be a naturally occurring situation of several coming together all at once, on the other hand, the extra heat being generated around the globe, be it man made or naturally occurring climate change could also be a big factor. Like you say, 2 inside a year! Especially has they say several inside a decade is common, but if you were to achieve 3 inside a couple  of years, wow!! 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Bang on cue - 48 hours later another watering down in the text. Best enjoy whatever comes this week as much as possible - February now set to be unremarkable as a whole given failed signals plus MetO models. A real shame - this winter had so much promise.

Thing is catacol how much faith can we put in these updates! How many times have they made a complete pigs ear of it? People still bring up the infamous bbq summer prediction, I also recall the heatwave of June 2017 which lasted 5days, at that stage a met office spokes person pointed out it would be a summer of long dry hot spells!! Wrong!! Didn't there predictions for 09/10 state a milder than average winter, some of the background signals you have been pointing out for so long could still deliver!! The big freeze in USA 2017 December, I remember a lot of the met guys were saying, only a matter of time before it returns, but it never did with that kind of intensity!! Proof that LRF is still very much an infancy, anything can and will still happen, keep the faith catacol love Reading your informative posts 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Yeh, bizarre!! They state greater chance of much colder later in the period, then play it down a bit in the extended, blatantly obvious they ain't got a clue, on a positive note though, colder shots a plenty, so gonna be a continued risk of snow at times 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

43 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

Post of the day deep snow, you hear that netweather folk, cancel summer this year, the hunt for cold continues till June at the earliest, love it.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I love how you leave out southern counties and S/E and parts of E/A also ..

Seems wales and parts of the midlands could see a nice dumping

Yeh them to UW, just noticed how the system seems to be grinding to a halt around the areas I mentioned, little features bound to crop up in next 48 hrs, so hopefully we all end up with a bit of fun

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Can see a few more chops and changes over the next 24  hrs regarding Thursdays snow, perhaps central, Eastern Wales in the line of 10-20cms, maybe nudging west and south west midlands, and thoughs of you in the southwest worrying a little bit, maybe another little troff moving into your area on Friday, one to watch for sure. And hopefully most of us can get on to some of the action

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, DCee said:

All a bit pah....

Another chase for an elusive Easterly...after one run...still we have 30 days of winter left so who knows? The SSW just hasn’t produced this side of the Atlantic, I can’t see anything changing that.

Nothing like a bit of glass half empty to bring the forum back down, I would actually say there are indeed 50 days of winter left, if you go by the book. And dcee, last year delivered very late! So to rule it out at this stage is, premature to say the least!!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Great to see everyone's enthusiasm going through the roof this morning on the back of some positive runs, especially the 6z runs, it's put a spring back in my step, as Mike Poole said last night, let's get the chase back on, so I will finish with one of my main models and say, I told ya so, the Indian model ain't tobe sniffed at, just look at that cold pool knocking on the doorstep!!!!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

A bit of from  China with love, its on, its on, the chase is back on, 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z illustrating perfectly what I think is now the direction of travel, as the northern blocking starts to come closer to the UK, so also does a slug of extremely cold air, now I've seen it on the models I get a feel for the possibility that the Met Office have been alluding to. Pub run T138:

White finger, does it have our name on it?  Watch this thread, come on guys, one last ride on the roller coaster, one more shot at the Jackpot?

With you all the way, and for a change I'm gonna say the met will be upgrading there forecast in the next couple of day, rather than the usual downgrading it! 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Please let us no where you guys are getting ya crystal ball from, I want one, over analizing every run is a sure way to send you round the bend, it will end up where it ends up, I still fancy a more correction north than currently showing, I said earlier today, southern central Wales and into Central Western Midlands, its pretty much still game on 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just a thought regarding the failed easterly of late, and the lack of cold coming out of Europe, could it be to do with brexit perhaps!! I means let's face it Europe won't give us anything right now

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Do I see height rises over scandy! And a march westwards of that Eastern cold! Anything is possible, perhaps even a link up of the azores high into Greenland 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Just what is the point of making any kind of weather observations in this forum, when if the mett downgrade, folk start saying game over!!!!!! 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

  so where do we go from here now the background signals didn’t work out as many hoped it would what do you think of the ECMWF 46 outlook from today 

These background signals were barely mentioned 20 or so years ago, Yeh perhaps they was less understood, but many a great cold snap back in the day wasnt always a result of ssw and other background signals, sometimes things just settle into place like the perfect roll of dice, and even takes many by surprise!! 87 springs to mind 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

And even the boys from Brazil seem to be singing from the same hym sheet, it ain't over till the fat lady sings, but she deffo clearing her throat I hear some of you say!!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Far to much importance placed on gfs in this forum, all models deserve a little respect, think the boys in space could be onto something here!!

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m here and it has downgraded....  somewhat watered down!

That's a revised update, I'm starting to see that perhaps they don't really have a clue themselves, perhaps still favourable away from the NW, I wouldn't give up just yet though Don, tbh I don't think any meteorological services are covering themselves in much glory currently! 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

15 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

Hope so Matt. 

I bloody hope so to Jason, ive got an extraction booked at the dentist on Thursday, and I'm hoping the dentist gets snowed in.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Just wandering where Don was, pretty sure he stated last night met office would be downgrading, well they stand firm. 

[Midlands Regional Discussion]

Thursday looking very interesting, with this system basically grinding to a halt, many parts of midlands especially south and west could see a right dumping!! Expect Amber warnings to be issued inside next 24hrs 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Things looking really interesting for Thursday as the next system pushes ne, how far north and east is the question! But it looks at this stage some quite serious conditions could devolop away from the sw, central southern Wales, the Midlands, got a feeling this system ain't gonna be in any hurry to move, 10-20cm for favoured locations easily on the cards 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its really confusing but i am sure Gavin (Summer Sun) posts it around 12 Oclock, i don't know how he knows but he generally does get it spot on, i think it might be a problem with caching, as people get the EPS London graph before me as well, then i tried using E as opposed to Google Chrome and it works now.

Yeh Feb, I've noticed summer sun gets the updated version posted a good hour before I get access to it through my own Google search, so credit to him for that, think perhaps he as a little inside knowledge with the met boys myself!!