MATTWOLVES 3
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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3
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21 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
Who's to say the SSW causes very mild temps instead of cold. Maybe we are in the wrong place this time around but whow seriously wants -40 wind chill like in the U.S. By the way the gfs does look very mild this morning. Not to say it will verify of course.
Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month.
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6 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:
Temperatures back into double digits by the middle of the month. The route to cold looks a long way off.
Nahhh, mid month onwards when things start to become interesting, you must be reading the tea leafs again!
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36 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:
The heat is on its way winter is over!!
If I had a quid for everytime I've heard that I would now have had enough money to spend some time in a country where winter is not over!
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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I'm going to give this model-watching malarkey a wee rest and do something a little less stressful...I might just follow the England-Windies test match instead...? Rugby?
Either way Ed, Britain's chance of hitting the jackpot still gonna be about the same, one minute it's all gonna be looking good, the next........ Oh well
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
True, but the problem is, it will be sod's law that when the models show mild in FI, they will verify. Not giving up on February, just don't like the current charts.
I'll drink to that Don, and like bluearmy is pointing out, there is still potentially another shot lining up
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Just now, bluearmy said:
Exeter still see cold later in feb
Yes I agree blue, just pointing out how quite a few seem to think once the met downgrade a bit, then it's all over, Yeh they still keeping with that signal backend of month
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31 minutes ago, Don said:
I think the first few days of February 1998 started on a cold note? I'm horrified to see the charts perhaps showing a similar pattern for around mid-month. Although, I gave up on the prospects of a notably cold February, I hoped it would be similar to the second half of January, with cold shots and the potential for short lived snow events. However, even that looks way too optimistic at the moment!
Bit premature to be pinning hopes on charts 2 weeks away, then even if these charts were showing cold nirvana most folk would be saying its in FI, no chance of it verifying!! Amazing when they show mild dross, most folk take it as set in stone. Personally I would give it till last 3rd of Feb, even the met still seeing a signal for that backend of month, if we are all gonna give on the 2nd of Feb, we may as well call it a day and stop posting till next December, and even then if it starts mild quite a few will be saying..... Here we go again.. WINTER IS Over!
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
GEFS out to Feb 18th says make the most of what's left of this cold snap
Thanks Summer Sun, now I'm really depressed
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5 minutes ago, Don said:
Trends are as bad as they get if you want it cold! Also expect to see the metoffice outlooks trend milder.
Going buy some of the gloom on here I would say, if the met office downgrade cold, then surely that's the pattern that will take HOLD!!
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5 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:
Are these the same SSW impacts that we've all been waiting on since xmas/new year?
I can't help but think that we have seen the last of the snowy weather for this winter.
It simply wasn't 'our turn' this time.
Its been one hell of a slow downwelling, Europe got the starter course, USA have just had the main course, and wiat for it blighty is about to get there just deserts!! The fat lady may be in rehearsals, but I ain't heard her sing yet!
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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it! I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest. I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5. Fits with the SSW impacts too.
Goto to agree Mike, straight from winter to summer suits me just fine. And Yeh there are still signals for a back end winter, not sure it will be as severe as last year, but perhaps more extended! 2013 springs to mind.
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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Been hearing that all winter. We may have to face facts that this winter will go against all the signals. Yes there is still time but the chances of getting another beast at the end of Feb for the second year running is remote.
What would be interesting is if Feb turned our to be the complete opposite of what the signals suggested. I for one would never believe them again.
Good point, but perhaps no more remote than the fact we had 2 large scale SSW events I side a year!
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Ridiculous output, the same old gfs garbage spewed out week after week, 2 weeks ago literally all the models showed mega cold and easterlies and snow from every angle! With in 24 hours after icon latched on to something all the models backtracked. Now 2 weeks on we have bloody bartlett scenarios showing up, what's stopping another drastic flip back in the next few days, absolutely nothing, you can go on all night about what the extended EPS are showing, or not showing, all the positive signs of the other week were undone in 24 hours. Anyway rant over, I've noticed my girlfriends horses are eating more hay and drinking much more water, they did this last year prior to the beast!! And like she said to me they no more than the models, so there you have it, strait from the horses mouth. All of those who had snow send me a pic, I'm snow starved I need cheering up.
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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there...and your claims about climate go against what 97% of the scientific community think... I know who I'd rather trust. However maybe the moon and earthquakes will make our winters great again!
Not sure about earthquakes but a good point about volcanic eruptions, whenmt krakatoa erupted in 1883, Northern hemisphere temperatures fell by over 1 degree and weather patterns were chaotic for years!!
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16 minutes ago, Newberryone said:
What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!!
Care to elaborate? It delivered in 2010, and 2013 not to me tion last year also, so I fail to see how it scuppers our hopes all the time
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Who needs the Wednesday 10 day met office trend when we have the vastly improved netweather 7 days a week 247 10 day trend! Much better value, keep them great posts coming, things may look bleak at present, but as we saw the other week, trends can flip suddenly, this time next week the beast 2 maybe incoming
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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:
I think most of it comes from frustration and disappointment.
Its not just that though is it?? The same people who constantly belittle charts at 10 days plus are usually the same ones that keep posting them! If everyone has little faith in FI charts then what is the point in posting them! They ain't ever gonna verify, so why bother, what next? A new model that can post Day 100 charts, then we can all have a good laugh about how crap summer is goona be!
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2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:
Wow. I think Sweep himself could manage better grammar and punctuation!
Edd stones wasnt much better, but he escaped the backlash!!!
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37 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies:
These are all cold or very cold charts for the UK. This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here! The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today.... Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018? Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....
Good call, I've been following the CFS myself, some interesting signs, even though some folk think reading the tea bags gives you a more accurate prediction!!
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For only about the 2nd time this winter everything is glazed over, oh the joys. Probably best to keep a firm eye on the radar regarding the snow
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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
I hear what your saying, the current output is dire. But as you will be aware it can flip on its head overnight. Still think there well be a late response this year, a bit like 2013, not everybody's cup of tea I no, then there's the worry that everything back up in the trop and strat is reverting back to normal now, so no chance! Personally I wouldn't rule out further warmings, we can still get it even during March things can become severe, even though the sun at this point is higher!
And I would mention the strat folk on here have been amazing this winter, don't need to name names, they no who they are. I and many others have learnt so much from them, and just to think you could spend a fortune on a course to learn these types of things, and net weather have supplied them to us for free!! So any criticism they may well receive as things stand will be unduly unfair, sometimes things just don't work out, the met Office are testiment to that fact. Either way I hope they just continue to share there undoubted knowledge with us on the way forward.
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13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
I doubt anybody here wants an extreme event like that. Just a decent cold spell with snow that isn’t marginal. It’s harder to take for many this year because they were led up the garden path by various proclamations of the signals promising cold.
Another uninspiring chart!
I hear what your saying, the current output is dire. But as you will be aware it can flip on its head overnight. Still think there well be a late response this year, a bit like 2013, not everybody's cup of tea I no, then there's the worry that everything back up in the trop and strat is reverting back to normal now, so no chance! Personally I wouldn't rule out further warmings, we can still get it even during March things can become severe, even though the sun at this point is higher!
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Have we missed the jackpot with this year's SSW! Viewing pics of USA and temperatures of - 30, even lower, I realise this what some of you crave. But speaking from experience of harsh conditions, it really ain't much fun. Granted at first its like heaven, but after several days it really does effect your life, not to mention the vast loss of life to the elderly and vulnerable. The fact the vortex seems to have delivered to the states, does that mean it's a done deal for us? I wouldn't bet against it with still the best part of 7 weeks of winter still to go. Worth noting this is our second warming event Inside a year, maybe that's coincidence, maybe not, we enter a low solar minimum, and currently the planet continues to warm. I think this could be the beginning of a run of many intense SSW events, and scenes that you see in America could be soon something you will be seeing at first hand. So the hunt for cold thread may soon become the hunt for extreme cold thread. Something I feel strongly about, you may not all agree, but onwards and upwards for the rest of this winter, our time may be sooner than some of you think!!
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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Spring????
Check the sourcing...
That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!
My point being as spring approaches just watch the pattern change
9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:Spring????
Check the sourcing...
That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!
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Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Mattwolves
Yeh February may still go out with a raw. The potential for higher heights devoloping to the north and the jet taking a more southerly direction, so I would have thought any systems would be bringing a snow risk to South of UK. Far from a done deal this month, let's just see if subsequent model runs over the next 48-72hrs can start latching onto it