MATTWOLVES 3
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Posts posted by MATTWOLVES 3
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They still flagging up potentially colder Conditions, and the Easterly still not being dropped. I really hope they are onto something here, just checked the cps model backend of month and that shows some potentially interesting cold shots, they would probably trust a weather cone more over that model, but you never no
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5 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:
Some heavy snow showing for the Brecon Beacons again this Thursday so perhaps not just for northern high ground like many forecasters are saying..... our sledges are waiting for round 2 on south Wales' high ground
Wrong thread and perhaps a bit of inyabackyardism!! But what I will say is winter certainly not done, very mixed signals emerging toward mid Feb, this ultra slow down welling could still prove a saviour a little further down the road, chances of a Premier beast from the east maybe remote, but a championship version is still Highley likely,
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OK let's put the topic to bed. Astronomical seasons are relative to the position of the earth's orbit around the sun, taking into account equinoxes and soltices. Meteorological seasons are instead based on the annual temperature cycles measuring the meteorological state and coinciding gregorian calender to determine a clear transition and equal length season's! So let's all agree to have a different view on this and move on folks!
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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Et voila: le petit stonkeur; le stonkeurette; le petit toppleur...Sacre bleu! Zut! Merde!
And for those of us who never did French at school!! There you go, the little stonker, the little toppler, damn it, heck, s--t,
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2 hours ago, East801 said:
I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many.
Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised.
Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November.
Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully.
A
Bar humbug! 14-15 degrees!! This is the hunt for cold thread, what we wanna see is - 14 to - 15 uppers! Plenty of time for them temps you seek...... Like let's say May or June
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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
I think there is something in this, actually. I sense two things neither with any statistical evidence to back them up, and they are these:
- I think that proper wintry outbreaks for the UK will become increasingly reliant on SSWs - how many major snow events in Southern England have occurred since Dec 2010 that hasn't had a SSW component? 1. Dec 10 2017.
- SSWs are likely to increase in likelihood given changes in Arctic sea ice and other indicators at or before the start of winter, as per Cohen's theory.
Could be talking out of my backside, it's happened before, but I don't think the changes that are undoubtably happening to our planet all point in the direction of warmer winters for the UK, could be quite the opposite, we just don't know yet.
Good point Mike, on the other hand massive amounts of artic ice melting into the Atlantic ocean could also serve to switch off the gulf stream, throwing western Europe into the freezer. Mother nature may have a little trick up her sleeve as regards to this warming! And Yeh SSW very likely to increase as global temps increase annually, a lot could happen, still think its only a matter of time before we end up with a winter of a generation
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28 minutes ago, MP-R said:
All eyes on a building UK high then! Could actually bring some very springlike weather being February. I know I'll probably be escorted to the gallows for admitting this in this thread but I'd take a Feb 1998 style 18C with sunshine as much as cold and snow - just hate the idea of a resumption of Nov/Dec wet blandness.
Careful what you wish for mpr, we start getting that type of weather in febuary and we will end up with a summer that resembles autumn
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3 minutes ago, booferking said:
Last year definitely not great Winter up here in Ireland delivered big time well before the Easterly, as for this winter pure dirt.
I see where your coming from, but there's still time surely! I mean if we end up with bad background signals for next winter, a good many will be throwing the towel in before it's started.
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9 minutes ago, booferking said:
See yea October lads.
Really, ya gonna throw in the towel on the 4th Feb! I'm pretty sure many were saying the same thing this time last year!
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21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...
And being as you love the heat froze, I would say the chances of a repeat of summer 18 was about equally as likely,
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Oh deary me, if things don't start to look up soon, the mods will be renaming this thread the hunt for Doom thread!! I'm quite surprised by the lack of cold this season especially as the jet as been meandering about so much, I suppose a positive for upcoming winters could be a weaker jet due to low solar activity. Still got til the final third for things to make a big uturn folk. And in the short term if you wanna cheer yourselfs up try visiting one of the Eastern seaboard forums across the pond, they even more depressed than us. Already lots of em stating winter is over and where is all the snow. Keep the faith folks, if things show no sign of change by 21st, then perhaps frosty could be right, let's look for spring warm, as much as that peevs me off.
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2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:
If you cant stand the heat keep out of the kitchen
See what I mean, youve lost me already!
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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
I'm not sure whether its because people rate it higher or whether its because it has much more data available.
If I could view the ECM ensembles as quickly as the GFS, it ran 4 times a day and was able to look 2 weeks ahead, I would focus much more on the ECM.
Yeh, understood, if ecm made the data that gfs does available, and regards to more runs per day like you say, then I'm pretty sure it would be most people's main port of call
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Just now, JeffC said:
To be fair if you want a More purist model thread it exists here
Yeh that's true Jeff, but ya need a bloody PhD just to understand that thread!!
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1 minute ago, snowbob said:
Gfs is like an old grand national horse
it needs to be put out of it misery
and laid to pasture
bless
Yeh, good point, after spending quite a bit of time on American forums, it's blatantly obvious they hate it to. Literally everyone says it over blows everything, from dartboard lows to massive amounts of snow, to non at all. ECM has far more credentials, which is why I'm so bemused as to why so many seem to rate it on here, especially as the 18 and 6z have far less data input into it
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5 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:
That’s true but this forum is been ruined with statements like the one I’ve quoted. Some of you may not like me for what I’m saying BUT I’m only stating what all of the more experienced members are thinking. It’s a model thread and we having to sift through hundreds of statements like this just to get an idea of what the weather going to be like. I’m only stating THE TRUTSh. Enough is enough now. This thread has gone downhill big time recently
Well if you call some of the most knowledgeable and best posters in the business as going downhill, I'm somewhat bemused! Personally I think we have the best of both worlds, namely some astute weather and climate experts, and with a bit of light hearted banter threw in for good measure. Hell I would say netweather forum is amongst the best out there, certainly nothing else as good in this country
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It may be good it may be bad, but at least it's consistent!
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25 minutes ago, Ydoj said:
Just been reading pages 10-20 thinking they were the latest updates
Probably best you keep reading from there, things were looking much more promising!! Made me laugh though
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11 minutes ago, Danielvn said:
Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”?
The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather?
Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!?
i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not.
We in the UK are probably more passionate about the weather than anybody in the world. Having seen some great winters during the 80s, just think it would be nice to see some of the younger members get something of that potency!! People been asking me all winter how's it looking for cold and snow this winter, and I've pointed out on numerous occasions background signals looking good, but folk seem to hold you to it, others just say he ain't got a clue. The missus for instance has horses, so everytime I tell her, I will get nahhhh, the horses ain't having any of it, she is convinced they sense these things long before we or computers do!! And I don't think it's wrong so say we deserve best roll of the dice, apart from 5 days end of last Feb, and a cold December 2010, we ain't had that much to get excited about!
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5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:
Mate from the start of the winter Iv been telling family members about the really good looking background signals for a cold winter and possibly quite a bit of snow and so far that hasn’t happened and I look like a complete muppet. This winter so far has been a very long chase from the start and I’m pretty much ready to give up and start chasing thunderstorms again.
I've been doing likewise since backend of December, to the point the local authorities are asking why there is such a short fall of bread and salt in the shops! And guess who there pointing the finger at! I'm praying we see a big shift this month otherwise my credentials are shot already, which would be a shame as I'm only just starting out
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OK so far this winter has been milder than most of the background signals suggested. While blocking has occurred, the positioning seems to have been unfavourable. The SSW that occurred late December which became a split vortex early January now seems to have recovered. The weak westerly winds though are still in evidence through the atmosphere and will probably Continue for quite some time, so in that respect we still have hope. So basically as long as this continues across the Nh, blocking will still be prone to set up shop. Also worth mentioning is that the tropical waters of the Pacific continue to be warm, this can also lead to blocking. So the USA which as recently been subject to insane cold conditions will occasionally push stronger pulses of jet stream activity towards us. So wet conditions will be in evidence at times, so I would assume as long as we keep these signals, further snow events will remain possible in association with any blocking that sets up shop. We have had a distinct lack of easterlies this winter, but perhaps going on the evidence still a little Ray of hope for later this month!
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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:
The one rascals revenge posted, states from 17th Feb. The one summer sun posted, states from 18th Feb!
Although granted, its word for word exactly the same,
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Its todays update.
The one rascals revenge posted, states from 17th Feb. The one summer sun posted, states from 18th Feb!
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28 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:
UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:
Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.
Think the fat lady is clearing her throat!!!!
That's yesterday's update, the met are very uncertain, and the fact they still keep mentioning wintry hazards and ENE winds means they still have signals emerging, an interesting last 3rd of the month me thinks
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
And when summer fails to deliver, do we say just bring on winter! It's a never ending circle all of this, just because ukmo didn't build on its earlier run. Who's to say ecm won't deliver and tomorrow's runs are a big upgrade, when we reach rock bottom my friend, THE ONLY WAY IS UP @):-