Bradley in Kent
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Posts posted by Bradley in Kent
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Good morning all, understandably a lot of run to run discussion especially with this mornings output and the 1976 record.
Something I do wish to add though, we'll need to look at the possible development of a very early tropical storm. Should this happen, there's lot of energy ready to be unleashed in the Atlantic.
If nothing happens, we can continue looking at the usual cards on the table. If however a storm does develop, we'll be dealing with a wildcard which will override the others!
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On the subject of previous hot spells, August 2020 seems to have faded in many peoples memories. Here at least though it was a proper hot spell; 6 days of >32c, a string of Tropical Nights, consistently high DPs, no wind and a thundery breakdown. I think for the whole of the UK it was the longest run of >35c days as well. A top tier hot spell it was!
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59 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
The thing is, there's very little forcing on that low from the jet. So, if the intensity of the low has been overdone, then it may not make it through the country at all and the east stays warm/hot throughout to T240.
True, it could develop more but I can't see where that's going to come from - a new chasing low is more likely to peg our low back than fling it forward.
Could go either way but I'm 60/40 in favour of the low losing even more intensity as T0 approaches, because Atlantic lows are so often overdone at T120 especially by the GFS.
This very well summarises where we are in the mid term. How many times have we seen delayed breakdowns and extensions to warm/hot spells!
Like yourself I think the SE is in for some surprise heat Sunday and Monday
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Maidstone looking like a hotspot with informal stations widely in low 30s (31c to 34c). I'm getting about 32c in the shade and any high cloud is drifting more East Sussex direction. As others have said, an unbelievable switch from mid-teens with constant wind to this!
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Off to a good start here; clear blue skies and many stations currently between 22c - 25c. Plenty of warming to go so 30c is well on the cards!
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Same here in Kent. 2021 was a strange Summer in that it all stayed green through the entire season. 2012 the also a Summer it stayed green. Even drab Summers like 2011 and 2015 for example had straw-like grass at times. Last year was exceptional as it was dry for over 3 months and as others on here have mentioned, the heat did kill off some areas which literally turned to dust!
To the here and now, lawn edges have now gone yellow. If it doesn't rain this weekend we'll be in full straw mode in 10 days time. Unbelievable really considering where we were only 1 month ago!
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Must say this is my least favourite synoptic regardless of time of year from an IMBY perspective. For those further west imagine a constant NE wind (the sort which blows small debris around with gusts strong enough to move empty watering cans) with mostly cloudy skies but no showers.
I'll accept that the sun does come out but believe me, when you get a constant wind with no change in the forecast, one does yearn for the more varied weather you get from other directions.
Got to say I couldn't live in places like Canary Islands or West coasts of the Americas where they have relentless trade winds!
However despite the moan do enjoy the weather to those living further North and West!
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I must admit I was one of those who didn't have good feelings around a year ago to early June last year. The weather was drab and the models were showing very 2011-like conditions well into FI.
Somebody (cannot remember who unfortunately) in the MOD thread rightfully mentioned how 1995 had a slow start.
June 2022 had a spike mid month before going back to a NW'ly regime; Summer 2022 wasn't looking great, dry yes, but cool and windy again like 2011. Then around the second week of July when things began to look interesting, indeed 40c was predicted a good 10 days out!
Looking at this year, I don't mind having a wetter Summer as long as there are some thunderstorms and humid days with some warmth. It'll be very lush in the foreseeable and if we continue to get rain who know we might have a tropical feeling Summer this year.
Cop out comment I know but; we'll just have to wait and see!
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When it comes down to averages it's good to think of upper and lower percentile along with range Mean, median and mode differ of course.
Spring and Summer in particular have skewed percentiles and range. The range sits around (for SE England) between 18c and 30c but average around 22c, closer to the lower percentiles. This is because over 50% of days are 22c or lower where warm days happen less frequently but push the upper range higher further away from the mean than the cooler, more common days do.
Climate Change is exhasibating this further with 'Hottest days' with SE'ly winds becoming hotter but cooler, more NW'ly based days remaining the same.
Australia is even more extreme (I've stayed there for over a month) where you can't say what an average summers day is in Melbourne. The mean max in Summer is 25c, but my does it vary! On cool Antarctic winds you'll fail to hit 20c with overcast skies, but if you get a northerly you'll blast through 40c before midday!
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Looking like the western North Downs was the sweet spot last night (North Surrey & parts of Kent)
Had around 3cm here near Maidstone but it is already melting both seemingly from above but also from relatively warm ground underneath. This'll be gone by lunchtime but always good to see snow
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Temps have settled out around -0.5c will DPs around -1c. At least for now this'll lower the ground temperature for when the precipitation arrives in the small hours. So far so good
As always it will warm up when the cloud arrives but hopefully intensity and cold ground will give some settling.
It wouldn't be a UK snow event with 'Marginal Anxiety'!
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Doesn't look like it's worth pondering anything beyond a week. Next weekend we could either be on the cusp of an early burst of spring with high teens or a frigid snap with minus double digits overnight!
The SSWs clearly wreaking havoc with models illustrated by the spaghetti chart.
It's going to be a messy fortnight coming up!
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I'll split this into two parts, my memory (which will all be post millennium as I can't remember prior) and a year which stood out when looking at MO historic station data.
First, my memory:
January 2008
February 2020
March 2016
April 2012
May 2021
June 2015
July 2011
August 2008
September 2008
October 2012
November 2011
December 2015
All either Atlantic dominated or dull featuring a mild winter and cool summer.
So when looking at historic years, 1974 (plus the first half of 1975 looked awful on paper. Kicked off with a mild winter with a teasing warm March before what looked like a chilly April. The summer looked very cool and never got going. Then in September the temps fell well away, stayed cool through October but stayed the same through November and December where December ended up being above average. January and February the following year stayed mild, before an average March then a cold April. This resulted in 8 consecutive months with temps around 10c. What, a, borefest!
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Like many I do feel this year will be much cooler and wetter compared to last year. My knowledge on global mechanics is limited but I can't help wonder if the dice are freshly rolled each season. You'll unlikely roll a pair of 6s twice in a row but it's not impossible. Nowadays the atmosphere responds pretty quick to solar input especially over mainland Europe so it'll come down to how much of that we feed off that.
I am still going for an average summer but with more rain and humidity, perhaps a 2016 / 2014 combo.
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January 2010 (cold & snowy with the odd less cold interlude)
February 2018 (cold start, average middle before a BTFE to round off the wintet)
March 2012 (frosty start and a warm end)
April 2020 (beautiful)
May 2018
(beautiful with a humid thundery end)
June 2017 (good heat spikes)
July 2006 (consistently warm)
August 2022 (hot days and cool nights)
September 2016 (extension of summer before a drop late month)
October 2016 (dry and still giving really good autumn colours)
November 2005 (frosty with a dusting end of month)
December 2010 (the Holy grail for Winter coldies!)
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This has got sleet written all over it with perhaps a bit of slush on top of cars on the highest ground of the Downs.
Uppers are looking okay but DPs, wind and ground temps are looking less favourable.
It feels like the Met Office are approaching this with caution after all the flack they took in December!
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Problem for coldies is that this current pattern is self perpetuating and sustaining. A zonal pattern creates a zonal pattern which, without a major disruption such as SSW, will only continue until the Spring when things settle down as was the case in 2019/2020.
It's all eyes on the strat, but time is ticking and it won't be long before we've left prime cold season (Sun starts getting too strong and days too long mid Feb onwards)
Echoing some others I do have a feeling we've already had our winter serving which I will say has been decent locally; all day frosts followed by a week of lying snow 15cm thick.
Still, you never know and I'd take snow over no snow any day even if the sun is 45° above the horizon!
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Well, I'm not going to bemoan too much as a coldie we've had a decent 1 week cold spell which exceeded expectations and occurred at a good time of year.
Nevertheless it's disappointing to see a mild and wet outlook with strong Euro heights as once we're in such pattern it takes weeks to get out of the rut.
Let's face it extreme cold in the US rarely spells good news for European snow lovers.
For that reason I'm going to give the weather watching a break for now whilst we go through a boring spell. Still, at least we'll be using less heating fuel!
Merry Christmas all
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Morning all,
So here the dreaded drip has begun. It's always a sad time when snow melts however it is of course a natural comedown after a very enjoyable period of weather.
It's been a decent cold spell, a few hard frosts primed the ground before a surprisingly heavy fall of snow (15cm) which has survived the week no problem bar south facing roofs. Calm water bodies are frozen and even the river has ice albeit patchy.
As of now we're at 0° for December so far which is good going.
The last third of December is looking very uncertain but it does look like the Atlantic will be calling the shots. Perhaps a couple of northerly blasts the the years out!
(Images courtesy of Weather Underground)
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Definitely agree with the impacts of sun. This week, despite the snow cover and sub-zero temperatures, hasn't felt oppressivly dark. (I've found this in Scandinavia).
Rest of the month won't be pretty, cloud, mild, dank and very dark.
I'm grateful though we've had a decent 10 day cold spell (or 7 days if you only count snow cover).
It's been beautiful out there this week!
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A good day today for the cold spell. Last night I expressed concerns that we'll have a night of thick cloud and 0°c followed by a partly sunny day which would ruin the snow. Thankfully it cleared and temps plummeted down to -7°c before cloud rolled in shortly after sunrise with a max of 0°c. Yesterday saw a slight melt but today nothing melted, including snow stuck on walls or car windows. So Thankfully I was wrong!
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I do prefer wetter snow rather than dry powdery snow like the last event in February 2021. Wet snow clings to things making it look prettier and so long as it freezes takes longer to melt owing to higher density. And what's more, it's better for snowballs!
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Cloud cover is everything in very cold or very hot conditions. (Just vice versa between day / night and Summer / Winter.
BBC are going for a clear night plummeting down to -6° before cloud comes in tomorrow keeping temperatures near freezing. The Met Office however are going for a mostly cloudy night only going down to -1° before the sun comes out tomorrow which would really bump up the temperatures.
BBC would mean a well protected snow cover, Met Office would result in a big thaw. All because the timings of cloud cover!
Sadly, the Met Office seem to be on the mark with thick cloud and the sound of dripping. Temperatures are actually rising again after a brief dip when skies cleared around 15:30.
However I'm keeping things in context, at least there's snow cover!
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One last post from me, the undisturbed table top.
As with all events, some win and some lose. All in all, given the unexpected nature, a good evening in this location.
Hoping the snow cover will last at least this week
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I've got a feeling as is often the case around the solstice, that next weekend will be the crossroads for this summer's base state. As someone who likes 'continental' conditions I'm rather hoping for the scenario you've described above.
Let's see!