Bradley in Kent
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Posts posted by Bradley in Kent
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22 minutes ago, wellington boot said:
Anyone on here around Cranbrook, or Staplehurst or Maidstone? Looks like they had hours of red echoes. Wondering if someone around there or maybe on the north downs is in the sweet spot and might have got up towards 6 inches?
We've been done for a while here. Unfortunately not the 6 hours of heavy snow forecasted by the MO, but we're past 3 inches so i cant really complain.
Maybe we'll all get a final bonus sprinkle as that last narrow band clears NW.
Yes we had about 15 cm in the space of an hour. I've never seen snow so heavy for so long. Normally heavy snow comes from a streamer rather than a mini low.
Certainly no bust, exceeded expectations!
I'll add (hoping not to annoy those who've been on the wrong side of marginal) warmer air is leaking in under the low, so I'm hoping we don't get too much melting overnight.
But a proper event for here ❄
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Seriously dumping it down now, street lights look like they're flickering! ❄❄❄
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Things are going well in Maidstone, about 2cm at the moment with no struggle at all to settle.
We are dangerously close to the marginal threshold with temps in the -0.5° to 1.0° range and rising with DPs doing the same. As some unlucky ones are experiencing warmer and humid air is being pulled in from the SSE. Selfishly I'm hoping we don't continue to warm and that the low starts to pivot bringing back drier air from the North of the Thames.
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I feel by tomorrow we'll know if we're in for a cold spell as apposed to a cold snap which we already have lined up in the reliable.
In all honesty if asked I'd say the mild will win out next week owing to the extra energy the tropical storm will give alongside the wobbly / shortwavey nature of northern heights. I don't mean this in a flippant way as I'm satisfied with what we're getting I'm the coming days. It's more than a pre-topple 36hr Northerly and we've got the rest of winter for further chances.
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1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:
Well, here it is. Wasn’t there yesterday.
Going to be fascinating how a tropical system interacts with this artic air.Never seen anything like this. It’ll be worth watching.
We had a real good cold spell modelled in back in Jan 2016 before a hurricane popped up out of nowhere and ruined it all. In the space of 48 hours we went from Scandi / Greenie heights, -8°c uppers and snow symbols in a 5 day forecast to Med heights, mobile Atlantic and 5 day forecasts showing 10°c and rain.
I'm not going to make a call just yet and say this'll happen again. I also agree it'll be interesting seeing how it evolves, however, it's probably a good idea to prepare for some very disappointing runs in the coming days. This will give life to the Atlantic, the next few days we'll see to what extent, but I am concerned.
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It's going to be a nervy few days watching the models, it's never straightforward is it!
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8 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:
I've just returned from a brief perusal of the crazy thread. I read things like " falling on sword" and " childish behaviour" What has happened? Has there been a squabble? Has someone realised its an algorithm?
Emotion very much comes into play, especially in Winter when coldies are led up a garden path!
Chasing Summer heat is a lot more relaxing and straightforward than snow, which is getting harder and harder by the year.
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An active / invigorated Atlantic is a friend and foe at same time.
A quiet Atlantic you've got the risk of sinking highs. A busy Atlantic propps up heights further North whilst offering slider and battleground opportunities.
HOWEVER, as the GFS 6z op is showing, it can quickly go wrong with too much energy pushing though with us completely crashing out of a cold spell.
Obviously it's only one run and as others say there's a lot to resolve around day 5 and after. At least we've got interest in the shorter term.
Because of thus I'm not going to worry too much for now. Word of warning though, every goose chase starts with one dodgy run...
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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
It's good to see these charts this time of year. Definitely agree about the ICON: less rounded edges to heights with a good push into Greenland. They all look 'good enough' though. Hopefully it's on to something!
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17 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:
Midnight and it's been crystal clear with no wind since dusk. And still it's not freezing at all, apart from on the cars (always the first place and an artificial surface). Ground still muddy, pavements still wet, bins still covered in dew water. It's late November. I would swear that even 10-15 years ago it would have been frozen everywhere by 7pm in these conditions.
Upper air temps as I understand don't matter when it comes to frost forming on clear nights in the colder part of the year, too much cloud or wind (used to need a strong wind from a warm direction) were the key factors.
This has been a pretty consistent feature here since 2013, clear calm nights in the coldest months failing to give frosts (or just dipping below zero at dawn, or falling below early and rising again). Unless there is snow cover, almost nonexistent since except for winters 2020-21 and 2017-18 . Or except for some reason towards the end of the frost season, late Feb/Mar/April when it still often happens even if the days have been much milder (late Feb 2019 and April 2021).
The standard clear frosty Nov/Dec/Jan night, often in between runs of rainy and/or mild days, with the frost forming after sunset and lasting till morning, with no snow cover or very cold airmasses; a regular occurrence even in mild winters before 2013- is becoming very hard to achieve.
Yes I've noticed this, it was very obvious Friday night into Saturday morning; clear all night no wind yet it didn't go below 5c all night and that's late November!
When doing paper rounds and walking to school even in the milder winters of the early to mid 00s, there were plenty of frosty mornings and as you say, frost in between fronts during unsettled westerly spells.
Something not often talked about is the long term increase in dewpoints. It's a chicken or egg scenario in that higher temperatures increase dewpoint but also higher dewpoints trap heat better in the atmosphere. Dewpoints have been increasing just as temperatures have as a consequence of Climate Change. Perhaps compared to 15 years ago our atmosphere is more humid both at ground level to mid-altitude.
Dewpoints are higher in early winter compared to early spring anyway but perhaps this increase in humidity is more pronounced this time of year compared to Spring which is still seeing frosts.
Got to say, it's a shame how we're seeing yet another Autumn with no air frosts to speak of here in Kent.
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Morning all,
Some interesting model watching to be had as we head into December.
Since Netweather added the slider bar to model pages, it's become a lot easier to see and understand evolutions when sliding it right and left.
It looks like the first thing we need to look at is the nosing of heights between lows mid week. This is the first addition of heights to our north and east where the extent of this will determine what happens next weekend. One hopes that this gives decent additional to the Scandi high. A fatter well fed Scandi high will have an easier time linking up with heights further west behind the 'second' low next weekend hence be further west.
IMHO there's still too much erosion up there for a true block to establish especially where coldies want it most; Greenland / Norwegian Sea. There is of course plenty to happen before then though.
Basically this week is all about the transfer of heights from the mid latitudes to higher latitudes. Let's get the heights in first then we can worry about uppers.
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Well if things are to cool down there's a long way to go. Last night around 1am it was clear and still and yet it wasn't remotely cold (8c then eventually going down to 5c). You'd think late November it'll be at least a ground frost.
As has been the case all year, warmth is ingrained in our environment at the moment be it the ground, watercourses or atmosphere.
Snow is going to be a tall order even with the right synoptic!
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8 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
I believe that's the closest we've seen that severe cold pool get to the UK on an operational thus far.
Why do I call it severe well you've got to take into consideration just how early those dates we see it modelled are in the season but mostly even in our most memorable cold snowy setups we rarely have seen the 510 dam or below get into the UK.
Even when we had the TPV lobe pay us a visit in December 2010 we were within 528 dam air
The snow that cut London off in 2009 again 528 dam
The peak of the most recent beast in February 2021... 528 dam
January 2013 ... 528 dam
March 2013 was 528 dam
December 1981 also 528 dam
December 1962 also 528 dam
Similar for Jan 1962 with the 510 close to our east
So how extreme would 510 and below dam air be?
Dates we've seen that reach the UK
February 1991(small circular area)
2018 Beast
December 1978
February 1979
If there are other dates that anyone would like me to get for reference ..please let me know,
as I'm only 26 obviously I don't know the dates of all the snowiest synoptics we've had.
Good morning @Kirkcaldy Weather,
A fascinating post especially useful when comparing to current outputs I.e., what do those uppers actually translate to.
I wasn't alive, but the one spell I'd love to see charts for has to be January 1987 between the 8th and 15th. It was, according to many, one of the coldest weeks ever with some serious sea affect snow.
Thank you for sharing the above
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Evening all, hope everyone is well.
Like many in the past couple of days I've started to tentatively look out for the building blocks.
Obviously way, WAY too early to anticipate but put it this way, I'd rather have cold members in the mix rather than complete mild full house. At least there are avenues to go down where there's a chance of something seasonal.
We all know it can and in all likelihood will go wrong, but if it's full house mild there's no route at all where it's a no show for at least another fortnight.
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1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Bradley...
Yep I tend to agree with you.
However, some of the coldest winters we have experienced in the UK,, came when Svalbard was warm.
How can that happen?....... well,, it happens when we have massive northern Russian/European heights.
That pulls the Atlantic into passing to the north of Scandy into the arctic, whilst sweeping Russian air along the southern boundary towards the UK, and western Europe.
It is believed that this happened on a fairly regular basis in the 17th and 18th centuries. When we know it produced horrendous easterly winds for days and days.
.....................
PS THIS IS NOT A RAMP ,
MIA
On a historical note, I wonder what the sea ice was like back in the Little Ice Age. Historical accounts point at Iceland being entirely engulfed with pack ice at the Faroes. If it wasn't BTFEs, Northerlies and Northwesterlies would've packed a punch in their own right!
Back to the here and now, it is encouraging also to see some early snow in Scandi with temp charts showing below zero 2m temps over parts of the Baltic.
I'll be keeping an eye on this thread as ever
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Evening all,
The Alaskan coast is also looking warm but it's good to see at least a good portion of the NH experiencing colder than normal temps.
UK coldies could do with that Kara and Barents to freeze up soon!
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Snow cover makes a winter feel less gloomy, which makes sense really given its reflective qualities.
A few years ago I was on a trip in Scandinavia and days were short. However the place looked lovely in the snow and the skies were colourful with dawn and dusk feeling drawn out. Even the nights you could still see landscape around.
Then I came back to the UK, and instead of a soft pinkish hue, you had grey skies and evenings which felt darker with a snowless wet ground.
We I'm afraid (alongside other NW Europe locations) are probably the least desirable place in the world during winter in terms of overall geography. Go level or North you get snow or at least plentiful cold spells, go South you tend to get brighter and/or frostier conditions
Oh well, thankfully life ain't all about weather and climate!
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On 05/11/2022 at 11:02, Frigid said:
I wonder if we will ever get a winter month as extraordinary as December 2010. -0.1C away from the all time record of -0.8 in 1890, that's crazy. 2015 was impressive but on the other end of the spectrum
I wish to relive 2010 again, some amazing weather for coldies that year.
Obviously one can never say never but I feel we have maxxed out on December at least for the rest of this century. Interesting how in the space of 5 years we've experienced both how cold a December can get and how warm it can get. I'm not yet 30 but I reckon even for people like me Decembers will never beat those two months for their extreme nature, they'll always be 'nah not like 2010' or 'nah not like 2015'.
I'll definitely return to this thread again soon once I've looked at some stats. A very interesting thread!
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Did a test run on Friday for an hour to check it's in working order but in all am still holding off. This is when we can truly save on the bills if the weather stays mild this month and hopefully with a mild March where heating wont be required with temps in the mid to high teens.
I don't quite know the maths of usage and outdoor temperature. Take a 10 day period where it's 'average' in Winter where most days are mid to high single digits with maybe one or two frosts. Compare that to a 10 day cold spell where temps hover around freezing by day with hard frosts each night. How much more would one have to spend to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature? I suppose a lot of it comes down to how quickly a building loses heat where cold weather increases the rate of heat loss. I wasn't responsible for heating and bills back in 2010!
There's a part of me that thinks, once it's on it's on where I hope it'll either be super mild or snowy cold. I don't want a cold autumn, average winter then cold spring which would result in mid single digits for months on end where heating would have to go on anyway!
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I'm going for a milder than average winter.
Seems to be right 9 times out of 10...
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I get the idea that early cold means estabshed pools the UK can tap into into winter. However over the years October snow cover in thr NH has apparently increased as per attached graph.
It's fair to say early snows do not guarantee anything especially for the UK, in fact, you could even argue the opposite!
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10 hours ago, Snowy L said:
It really has been shocking and I don't buy the climate change argument either. Yes on average our winters should be getting milder but this should mean an easterly now is a couple of degrees milder than it would be 50 years ago for e.g. so some snow events that were just on the right side of marginal in the past may be on the wrong side of marginal now. What it shouldn't mean is Easterlies simply don't happen anymore unless we get lucky with a well positioned vortex following an SSW.
It's an interesting thought and I'd like to know how wind patterns have changed. Some time ago I read something saying that the occurance of Easterly winds in winter has halved since 1950, however I can't remember where so unable to verify.
What I do know for sure is that the stratosphere has been cooling due to greenhouse gases trapping heat in the troposphere especially at higher latitudes, much like how a thicker duvet will be cooler to touch because the warmth below doesn't make its way through. At lower latitudes the cooling is less pronounced meaning there's a bigger temperature difference in the stratosphere which is where our driving mechanisms take place. We do hear a lot about Arctic warming and smaller temperature differences because of, but that's at troposphere level where our weather drivers aren't determined.
This does explain why the stormy and zonal type winter has massively increased in frequency with your deep vortex and strong jetstream. Needless to say, we don't get proper cold spells in those type winters as Scandi or Greeny highs which bring the Northerly and Easterly winds can't establish.
This all brings me back to my first line; is climate change changing weather as well as temperature? Personally, I think it is.
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17 hours ago, TheOgre said:
The harvest moon is looking bright in a clear sky tonight but why does it seem the sky is clear at night but then clogs up with cloud by daytime? So annoying.
The Sun warms the air causing it to rise during the day. As a consequence local pressure falls encouraging water vapour to condense into cloud.
This ties in with wind where the day can start calm before a breeze develops in the afternoon only to die down again at sunset.
Annoying yes but not sods law thankfully!
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...And yes, the disaster of the cold spell that never was last Christmas felt like the last ever opportunity for a trop led, longer term cold spell.
Without wanting to go on too much about CC, we've left the days of chilly winters with different snow producing scenarios from November to April, and now enter territory of reaching 40c in summer, with 16c NYE and 20c in February. Yes, these are the highest end of our records, but here in Kent it's silly to expect or hope for a cool winter let alone cold, although as muted in my previous post, SSWs are still on the cards.
In more ways than one, we've entered a new chapter.
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Radar and precipitation type illustrating what's going on