Bradley in Kent
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Posts posted by Bradley in Kent
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Next week onwards is looking very risky, if the wheels come off they'll all come off at once!
However before then it's best to focus on the near term. The UK high will split this weekend with heights being pulled into Greenland and back to the Med. This low feature near Norway is really irritating as it's preventing northern height builds and encouraging more seeping south as well as west. If it wasn't there we'd get a cleaner Easterly.
The outcome of this low will be critical going forward, and there's little point worrying about Christmas until after this weekend plays out.
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On 17/12/2021 at 12:50, Eagle Eye said:
ECM member time again, you know the drill
Obviously being in Kent I'll have No. 1 or No. 3 please, with a extra portion of sea ice in Thames Estuary! (good old pixels there)
If these were a day out I think Netweather would literally melt down... We've got a very, very long way to go!
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On 17/12/2021 at 10:54, Met4Cast said:
I agree with @snowking, in these situations the GFS deterministic run should be viewed as just another ensemble, you probably wouldn't worry about the detail being shown on a random ensemble member so treat the GFS det the same way.
There's a clear split within the ensembles, those with stronger blocking remain cold, those with stronger Atlantic lows go milder. We're probably several days away from knowing which way it'll go, and I suspect, several more shifts between the two outcomes.
Deep down I think we know which set of the two is more likely to happen. In winter I'll say the top 3 mildest options are way more likely than top (or bottom) 3 coldest options then flip that round for summer.
As many have mentioned, the next few days will be very up and down both model forecast and emotion what with the strings of Christmas attached! Best to take small piggy steps and not worry too much about what happens at day 5 which seems to be the cross roads or where those two ensembles sets diverge. Lets cross that bridge when we come to it.
(also thanks for posting and highlighting, that ensemble chart really sums up where we are!)
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I'm calling it a day at day 5, there's always uncertainty but this next fortnight will be all over the place, not to mention the stakes of Christmas as well.
For my own sanity, I'm taking small steps as the evolution plays out. A Christmas goose chase is not what I need or want! (although eating one wouldn't go amiss)
This coming weekend it's eyes of that Atlantic low and how it behaves with the Northwestern edges of our current HP. If it backs west or stalls it'll allow heights to establish towards Iceland where we'll then look at what that Norwegian Sea low does and how it interacts with any heights pushing into Scandi. And of course always keeping an eye on the Med hoping heights remain lower there.
All the best (y)
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Good evening all,
I have not been participating in the Netweather forums for that long, especially compared to many others. However, like all forums it's okay to make comments about comments.
Something I find odd are the occasional comments about models not being as good as others or people being disappointed with a model when it doesn't show what (I think) most of us want: hot summer weather / cold winter weather. Surely a good model or even model run are one's which stick with reality and don't overplay unusual features.
Yes, if I see runs showing BTFE galore with -20c 850s, I enjoy it as much as others, but it doesn't make it a good model / model run especially past day 3. IMO (and it is opinion of course), a true good model would be one which sticks as much with mobility and +NAO as possible, since that's what our weather is constantly trying to default to. Or in other words, a model which doesn't lead us up the garden path!
(open to replies if you disagree of course)
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At least, looking at cross model agreement, we'll be seeing heights build in this part of the world. That I feel is a start and a push in the right direction.
Of course any seasonal conditions are never guaranteed this far out, but we need to get heights around here where we can then look to see where such domes of air end up pushing.
Let's face it, a far better outlook compared to raging zonality!
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If heights stay lower over the Med, anything can happen
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Evening all,
As others have said we've now hit the earliest sunset marking the beginning of the 'darkest period' from today to the latest sunrise on the 30th.
I must say I am looking forward to late February when the daylight really lengthens out! And even more so a warm sultry afternoon, 25c, sun still up past 9pm
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I think it'll, like this year, be a cooler year compared to recent years as we seem to have entered a relatively cool phase. For info I'll base this on my locale, obviously things could be very different elsewhere.
January - mix of high pressure and polar maritime airmass, with one or two snow events (like 2015)
February - a mild zonal month as La Nina kicks in (like 2011)
March - a cooler than average (biggest cool anomaly) and again zonal (like 2016)
April - dryish, but nothing like 2020 or 2021, with some warmth (like 2015 or 2009)
May - a warm and sunny month, (like 2020 or 2009)
June - a wet month with one Spanish Plume (like 2011 or 2019)
July - a cool and dryish month (like 2015)
August - another naff month breaking the longest 'Hot August Drought' since reliable records began (like most Augusts since 2003)
September - starting warm but transitioning to wet and humid (biggest warm anomaly) (like 2013)
October - a cool and wet month (like 2012)
November - a mild and dank month (like 2011 or 2014)
December - a quiet, average temperature month with Euro High at play (like 2006 or 2007)
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Here in Kent we benefit most from BFTEs and when sea effect snow kicks in we're in the money. Even this year we managed 8 days of snow cover peaking at 15cm. This was very localised which is my main point: no matter what the overall bsckground winter is (mild or cold) whether or not it delivers can be down to near exact location.
As for this winter, I don't think it'll be super mild but can't see any Scandi or Greenie high developing. Probably as mentioned a winter similar to 2014/15, cooler Polar Maritime spells with high pressure nosing in from time to time.
My gut is really saying 'average', the sort of winter nobody talks about 10 years down the line.
We'll probably get a slider or two in January but it won't be long before people look to spring!
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Good evening all,
I like the idea of this new thread and I'll be a frequent visitor!
There seems to be a lot more going on than usual and the model inconsistency rather illustrates that. It's all eyes on Tuesday now and there's little point trying to work out evolution past that. It really feels like a crossroads in the evolution of our winter if not this month.
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On 02/12/2021 at 23:17, cheeky_monkey said:
according to the time and date website the date of time changes in the UK in 1961 for example was Sunday March 26 and Sunday October 29 so the same as today.
I'll take your word for it, perhaps in 1961 people have had enough of dark evenings for 7 months of the year!
I'll have to also look into the 2nd World War and the 70s experiment where we went an hour forward or even 2 hours forward.
I'd say out of the big political decisions governments can make, time zone and using daylight is definitely up there!
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We'll have to keep an eye on that one; I don't mind a bit of storm but I don't want a tree toppler or roof ruiner.
It's a bit annoying that the Atlantic has revved up as soon as we enter Winter, but like many I suspected it would!
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Apparently the times we have now were established sometime in the 70's. Before then the clocks used to go back first weekend of October and didn't go forward until the last weekend of April. My word that would've been grim, no wonder some old folk above 80 tell you winters used to last forever! (even if memory has filtered out mild winters)
I suppose end of February would work and I certainly won't be against it. I will say though, that week end of March to start of April always feels like the true end of Winter. We always seem to get our first burst of warmth which seems fitting when the clocks go forward. The atmosphere changes, both literally and socially!
Overall, I'm very happy with our daylight and times. Further north and things start to get a bit too extreme with summer and winter, but further south that sun starts to get too harsh.
50 - 60 degrees north with GMT / BST is, in my opinion, the goldilocks zone
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Anything to stop that Azores High migrating eastwards towards the Med. If that happens you can kiss goodbye to anything seasonal for a good few weeks. As others have mentioned, we now know a lively low will be in this part of the world middle of next week with weak heights to the east. IMO this'll be one of those month deciders: if it goes south we'll continue the cooler conditions seen of late with possible heights nosing in from the east while heights remain in the Mid-Atlantic. If the low goes and joins its friend east of Iceland allowing heights to slip east into the Med, (not to mention a strong Canadian PV) then we might as well call the rest of December off!
It's not happened yet of course, so all eye on that low!
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Good afternoon all,
The onset of darkness is slowing and from next week will almost come to a stop. Not much changes in December.
Depending on your latitude, the earliest sunset and latest sunrise dates are away from the solstice (21st December) which is of course the shortest day overall.
Here the earliest sunset is 12th December and latest sunrise is 30th December. The closer to the pole you go the nearer those dates get to the solstice and vice versa. (say Tropic of Cancer those dates are a good month either side of the solstice). Here it's quite noticeable how in January the evenings are off and away in getting lighter, but the mornings don't get going until much later in the month.
This is the time of year weather makes all the difference, if you get a clear day and great sunrise/ sunset it's quite bearable, but when it's a cloud fest it really is depressing especially if the cloud doesn't go away for days.
To be honest this is my least favourite time of year and I look forward to end of February at this point!
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This is the time of year when one can get FOMO living in the far South East! With the exception of those 1 in 5 year NE'ly snow streamers, Winters down here aren't really that interesting compared to further North and/or West.
Maybe I could get a job and some sort of house swap where I can live up North in Winter, and in Kent in Summer. However I cannot see someone wanting to do that the other way round! (make your Winters even milder and Summers even cooler / less stormy? No thanks, our climate is bland enough as it is!)
Got to say though, despite little going on here, it's good to see nice photos and reports in the UK. It is better than the whole country missing out after all
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On 29/11/2021 at 13:00, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:
After this Thursday / Friday's brief cold incursion the models all seem to be in agreement in the medium term of a much more familiar winter pattern for the UK, Azores high firmly ensconced to our SW, any high pressure to E / NE locked away over Russia, large low pressure systems being spun up to our NW, and being driven eastwards by a strong flat jet. In my experience once this pattern takes hold (as the models are currently suggesting that it will) then it can take quite a while to break free from it, and whilst I don't want to be Mr Gloomy (from a cold perspective) it wouldn't surprise me at all if we're soon in the 'lets see what the New Year brings' mode of model watching...........
Azores High is a winter ruiner, shortly followed by Labrador based PV. Together they're like a whirlpool; as soon as you start to drift towards it, it gets harder and harder to get away from it, and once you cross a certain threshold, you're falling in and nothing will rescue you from it's dark and whirly depths! (like 2013/14 or 2019/20)
When models hint at this, it's the equivalent to seeing the whirlpool but still safe. That's where we are now, with lower heights currently over the Med with opportunity to avoid said whirlpool. However, if models continue to hint at the Azores High / Labrador PV, we'll get nearer and nearer until we're helplessly falling into the pattern writing off the remainder of the year and possibly the first half of winter...
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On 28/11/2021 at 11:08, Bradley in Kent said:
Good morning all,
Not wanting to be the party pooper, the famed 'in 10 days' will be an even longer 10 days than usual. The Atlantic has livened up, so many skipping rope wiggles to come. All it'll take is one small extra disturbance and the whole thing is called off even if models do predict a cold spell in the next few days. Plus, if heights are looking weak now at 10 days, that doesn't bode well at all!
...to follow my previous post with something more positive from a coldie perspective, the cool NW'ly winds have a will continue to take heat from the seas, and heights remain lower in Europe. For the end of November, things could be a lot worse!
(Negative / positive balance complete.)
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Good morning all,
Not wanting to be the party pooper, the famed 'in 10 days' will be an even longer 10 days than usual. The Atlantic has livened up, so many skipping rope wiggles to come. All it'll take is one small extra disturbance and the whole thing is called off even if models do predict a cold spell in the next few days. Plus, if heights are looking weak now at 10 days, that doesn't bode well at all!
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On 26/11/2021 at 13:20, Seasonal Trim said:
I'm actually cheesed off that we're not even in a yellow warning area for anything. The extremes are what I'm in this for. Never get them in the SE!
Good afternoon, I wouldn't think too much into it or spend emotion! The warning areas are always very broad where fuzzy edges would be more accurate in reality! Today and tomorrow is a nowcast situation where anywhere might be lucky to see a few flakes.
Also, yes, winter isn't the season of interest generally in SE/E England (except North Sea Streamers) but in Summer extremes do happen this way and what with CC, will continue to increase. I am of course thinking of heat and humidity which I appreciate seems either in the distant past or distant future on a day like today!
All in all, don't despair!
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On 23/11/2021 at 16:50, shawty1984 said:
Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing.
I'll say balanced at the moment: not as overly excited as last week when models were showing height builds to our north which in my view will always be premature more than a week away. Many, including myself, are confident we'll have an interesting weekend, but most, if not all, know details can only be nailed down hours beforehand. I'd love to see settling snow end of November, which, if the 850s, DPs, precipitation intensity and mixing go the right way, is a real possibility! It's that possibility and uncertainty which is why most on NW even log on in the first place!
Besides, nothing wrong with a little, rationally restraint excitement So long as one doesn't get attached to something in the future (like I did in Jan 2016 before a rogue hurricane ruined it all), looking at charts is always interesting!
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On 23/11/2021 at 10:46, TSNWK said:
Bump of heights going eastward towards norway? At 258 Nice development that we can work on
Not liking the location of the PV, but heights remain lower in Central Europe / Med. Lower heights over E Canada would probably keep pushing and shunting the high well into Russia / SE Europe like 2019/2020.
However, that's a way off yet, and not worth worrying about since we've an interesting weekend coming up!
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Evening all, happy to be corrected; Atlantic highs are good, Greenland highs are very good, but if you want excellent it's the Scandi heights you really need for an intense and/or prolonged cold spell. Best option is to have all 3, which is rarely on the cards.
Looking ahead, I'll be looking over the Ural region since we're ready for a scandi, come on, come this way and join your friend in the Atlantic before it slides away to the South!
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
There's a good 20c scatter which says to me that considering conditions past day 5 is a waste of time and energy. It's all high risk at the moment and one small disturbance in the wrong place will see the whole thing dissappear in a puff of smoke (or mild tropical maritime cloud!)