Bradley in Kent
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Posts posted by Bradley in Kent
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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Unremarkable mean driven by a massive spread on ensembles. Anything possible from record breaking heatwave to troughy mctrough with the high way out west.
Yes, too much scatter for my liking, many scenarios for the wheels to come off for heat lovers, namely lows over NE Canada and Iceland not playing ball (again, for heat lovers).
Personally, in Summer I tend to give more weight to the cooler ensembles, reverse it in Winter with the milder ensembles given our maritime climate.
Fingers crossed we get a decent prolonged warm spell
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Yes I'm sure if one is to compile the first 6 months it would be up there if not the sunniest.
On a completely different note for those who haven't look, the GFS has been going mad lately. Before last night's run dissappears, you can see 41c over East Anglia! Obviously it won't happen, but fascinating for weather chart watchers!
Back to the real world, looks like the sunnier theme to continue with a decent week of weather coming up. Nothing notable, but very pleasant
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Yes overall June has been warmer, drier and sunnier than average, so can't complain too much!
Mind you it really has been a drab week here, very 2011esque; cool, dry and windy. Thankfully it looks like things are settling down into next week where we'll lose this poxy wind.
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No photos but today I've never seen so much steam coming off the ground after a lunchtime shower.
The perfect conditions to create visible steam: strong sun, warm ground, short & sharp shower, strong sun back out, low DPs and low air pressure to allow vapour to condense.
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RE dewpoints the highest ever was in Saudi Arabia on the coast in 2003 around 35c, I can't imagine what that would've felt like! Like temperature records though these are only at official stations where other locales especially next to water for example could easily knock on the door of said record if not exceed.
I was in Cordoba, Spain in July 2017 where the air temp was 47c with DPs around 5c. We then walked past a shallow pond and suddenly you could feel the vapour in the air before walking away again back to dry air. Obviously it won't be recorded but I reckon it would've been high 20s maybe even low 30s.
The highest DP for the UK I believe is 23c (for reference tropical rainforests hover between 24c and 28c).
I'd say 10c to 14c range is most comfortable, not sweating but not dried out either. Today for example (DP 7c) coupled with this poxy wind and strong sun just drys the skin and the garden!
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It's looking like a block will be settling up over Scandi this weekend.
These can be high risk high reward; if the blocking high is more east, you just allow lows to come barrelling in shoving warm air away, but if the high is slightly more south and west, lows will still be around but scooping in more continental air from the south.
Of course, we'll need to look at the Atlantic, best case is a deep trough out in the middle allowing Scandi heights to build further west with lows stalling west of Ireland.
If we get Mid-atlantic heights, I'm afraid there's only one place those lows will go...
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Got to say we have done very well lately with weather. With the exception of February (although I wasn't in the country that month) we've been managing plenty of warm and dry days. January was sunny and frosty, March and April had some prolonged sunny spells with the odd blip in between, May was pleasant with some good thunderstorms and June has been mostly running above average. This week has been nice and warm where next week is now looking better than thought.
Put this way, we've washed the outdoor table cloth a couple of times now as we've eaten outside many times already.
A happy customer here
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4 hours ago, Beano said:
Wonder if anyone knows...I'd we had a high pressure over us throughout summer starting at 0° , what would be the highest temp the UK could get to at our latitude eventually? That is without any influence from the south or north?
I reckon with no imports and mixing with a static high pressure, we'd be maxxing around low thirties until the sun can do no more. I think temps above 34c you need to import some of it. Last year showed how we can make our own heat, especially nowadays!
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Evening all, I know it's the GFS max temp, plus an outlier run (12z) and that it hasn't actually happened yet, but wow seeing those unbelievable temps (mid 40s) on a chart so close to home, it's something I've never seen after years of chart watching!
White hot, so hot the colour scale is maxxed out!
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Evening all, been a while since my last post, hello.
Like others I'm holding back as a week is a long time, but by the weekend we'll start to have an idea especially on the West side of the Atlantic.
Low pressures can be a heat lovers friend especially when one reins the one in front back encouraging heights to build in front.
For that though you need a really deep trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Too far North you just end up with heights in the mid-Atlantic with lows bumbling over the top, worse still, ridges towards greenland.
So, all in all, time to watch what happens over there
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1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:
I know its the summer thread but dont know where else to post.
Juat some musings making up my winter forecast up to now based on predicted oceanic states come fall.
The opinion of the Australians and some other experts feel this La Nina will slowly weaken come the winter and the majority of models do as well.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength over the western hemisphere, and is expected to strengthen over the next 1-3 weeks. The MJO is enhancing westerly wind anomalies currently in the western Pacific which will weaken the La Niña.
October i feel will come in at -0.6 and continue to weaken come january/february.
Weak to neutral la nina conditions are very favourable for winter.
Also favourable will be the strongly negative IOD come winter.
There is also some thought behind 3 year la ninas ending in cold conditions.
1976 being case in point
Strongly positive IOD correlates strongly with a +NAO in northern hemisphere winter and Strongly negative IOD correlates with a -NAO. The two rossby wave pathways of indian ocean/pacific/atlantic via the troposphere and the stratospheric pathway via an aleutian ridge work the same way as the atmosphere would in a strong la nino in a positive setting and the pathways in a weak la nina the same way as a strongly negative IOD dipole.
The IOD should reinforce the weak la nina and in my view give good grounding for a cold first half of winter.
Arctic ice melt patterns and october snow cover are still to come and these may either help or be destructive to the background state in regards to the boundary lines of cold and warm air via the jet stream but up to now im happy where were heading for this upcoming winter.
An informative post and well detailed, thank you!
I must admit though, I am not ready for dark nights and chasing cold spells which 19/20 don't materialise. Last winter just showed how you can have everything in place but as soon as that PV revs up you can forget everything else!
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Wow some cracking photos from last night, I'll have to give it a go myself!
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It's great to have this warm slightly humid weather in May but I don't see anything spectacular lightning wise making it past the Sourh Coast at least for tonight.
Dew points are just about okay (>13c) but temperature gradients don't seem steep enough, both by location and by elevation.
Happy to be proved wrong as I love a good storm!
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The latest GFS op really went off on one there, could you imagine the chatter getting those temps so early in the season!
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On light observation it seems North America has had a cool and mostly quiet Spring. Probably why this side of the pond has seen so much blocking; not much to livern up the jetstream.
From a selfish point of view, I prefer a quiet and average North America because it seems when there's extremes in such part of the world, the UK just ends up under The Atlantic Train of Drabity.
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Afternoon all,
RE outlook cloud cover is crucial this time of year for temperatures. It seems more cloud is coming into the forecast, but it means the evenings would be warmer with some much needed rain possible.
Just like cold spells in winter, any upcoming hot spell hasn't happened yet and is a mere product of algorithms.
Trend is our friend and it's looking good enough for the foreseeable
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On 01/05/2022 at 12:20, reef said:
Yes, its the same here with 11.1C on 1st January. There hasn't been a min in double figures here since then.
Same here as well no minimum has been above 12c since NYD. I will say though that the upper quartile edge is the same in early January as it is in early April.
In early winter the colder nights are colder but warm nights (under cloudy tropical maritime) are warmer.
December 2015 in many places had a higher overall minima than June 2016!
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I'm going for the following:
June: wet but with a plume at the end like 2019
July: uneventful like 2011
August: better than July with usable weather but no heatwaves, like 2013.
I'll also go for a max 33c at Heathrow on 28th June.
Just gut feeling of course!
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It seems often temps get to 24c but not 25c. 2020 for example we had a late(ish) first 25c but many, many days in the low 20cs in April. Even for this year, it's been warm and pleasant but no 25c breach as of yet.
I don't have exact records but these are what I think in recent years:
2021 - early May
2020 - early May
2019 - mid April
2018 - mid April
2017 - early April
2016 - early May
2015 - mid June
2014 - mid May
2013 - late June
2012 - late May
2011 - mid April
2010 - late May
To conclude, it's very variable and doesn't indicate what the overall spring was like alone. I think 2017 was the earliest after a warm end to the preceding March.
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The only snow I've seen in here at home this winter was in November and April! Funny old thing weather...
I don't mind having a cool and wet spell for April as the plants will need some moisture as we head through spring. If we want a lovely lush landscape later on, we need a bit of rain first.
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A glorious day here too
I liken Spring to the build up of an event; Christmas, a party, perhaps a holiday or even just a weekend. I like the overall upward trend both in temperature and daylight with that 'summer's coming' feel.
Luckily for me I'm happy with anything above 20c so am satisfied most of the time in Summer. Yes, sometimes (like the examples above) the build up is better than the actual thing, but it's out of our control so one might as well enjoy it!
Unlike that drab early Autumn feeling where you sense the darkness coming, Spring gives that nice hopeful feeling that the best part of the year (IMO) is on it's way
Spring is probably the seasonal season for the UK (and NW Europe). Summer we do miss out on the best of heat and T-storms, Autumn we miss out on the vivid colours seen in America & Eurasia and winter, well, I don't need to tell you!
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To balance opinions out, I'm reasonably satisfied with this Winter so far. Here in Kent snow is always hard to come by without an SSW which was never really on the cards this winter. I did get my hopes up mid-December for that possible trop-led cold spell, but previous experience told me it was always on thin ice, or in reality, no ice at all...
To be honest, given the choice, I'd go for a drier and sunnier than average winter with no snow, rather than a few days of snow surrounded by dark dross. The dream winter (IMO) is a sunny one with the odd snowfall like Central Asia or Northern China (without the smog).
January this year really has felt bearable with many frosty mornings and warm 'eat lunch outside' afternoons. Moreover the sun has kept the house warm without the need for much heating, only a couple of hours needed mid-evening which given gas prices is ideal. I'm aware though, that sun has varied across the UK and we all live in different types of building.
Looking ahead, if we can avoid the worst of the Atlantic before entering Spring, things won't be too bad at all. Weather is weather, and we can only make the best of it, or move abroad!
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6 hours ago, claret047 said:
I wasn't sure whether to post the following here or on the model thread.
Being a novice the current rather boring weather with no WAA going up into the arctic around a Greenland High, should we be grateful looking at the wider picture that the set up we have been enjoying of mostly benign weather has helped the arctic to have one of the best build ups of ice looking back over several years and if this pattern continues could help to an extent nullify the impact of climate change
. Also, does anyone know how things are looking as far as the Antarctic is concerned with summer melt. Are things as good down there as far as climate change is concerned? Is it still having a considerable impact?.
Kind Regards
Dave
Good evening,
I don't know whether overall interest in the Northern Hemisphere is higher because the Southern Hemisphere is less variable, or because Antarctica is a distant continent the other side of the world!
According to NSIDC it's been running below average, but nearly all the ice melts away every summer anyway. Depending on winds, some winters can be more extensive as was the record high year of 2014. However like the Arctic some areas are losing a lot of ice particularly the Antarctic Peninsula.
I haven't researched this but I don't think weather or events in Antarctica have much (if any) impact on our neck of the woods. The NSIDC website is a good place for Antarctic updates (via blue button pop up on the right):
I'm not just saying this to be polite; The NSIDC is good for its monthly round ups and inclusion of Antarctica, but I prefer here for the supply of stats and insight as well as more detailed charts.
One could start a Southern Hemisphere snow and ice thread, but I think it'll soon slip back to older pages!
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2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:
BBC TV long range forecast by Louise Lear suggesting another week of High Pressure before becoming mobile, wet and windy from west in ‘invigorated jetstream’. Maybe some wintry opportunities once this high as gone
It all comes down to where the high goes as it goes. If heights slip out westwards into the Atlantic with lows towards the Med we'll end up with Northerly blasts before a best case scenario of heights migrating towards Scandi.
However if too much energy comes off North America lows will instead push heights southwards towards the Azores / Med and that'll be the rest of Jan down the pan.
For the here and now at least it'll be settled.
Summer 2022 Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The Med SSTs are red hot currently which is why I think models are showing sky high temps from plumes; air staying hot for longer with less reasons to cool off as it travels north.
I don't know you but good luck with the flights and enjoy your hols!