Bradley in Kent
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Posts posted by Bradley in Kent
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So there we have it Summer 2022 draws to a close from a meteorological point of view although as we all know we've still got 3 weeks of Astronomical Summer which can produce some very pleasant weather.
My verdict: a belter of a Summer
I wasn't actually in the UK in Summer 2018 but those who remember tell me that North Kent was prone to NE winds which took the edge off. Locally it seems this Summer has beaten 2018 and could be up with 1995 or 1976. We'll have to wait for the stats of course.
I'd go for an 8.5/10 obviously not truly knowing what a 10/10 really looks like.
What made it good:
- all three months warmer and sunnier than average
- all three months hitting 30c
- new record
- hitting 40c
- lots of consistent >25c days
- peak of heat in High Summer
Things that held it back:
- lack of thunderstorms
- drought
- although still warmer than average, June did have two cool and blustery spells.
The Met Office will definitely have a busy one and I am looking forward to results day (climate summaries release) early next week.
One more thing, because we've had such a good Summer, I'm ready for Autumn!
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I've got to say I do enjoy this thread and look forward to another cycle!
We've still got some melting to go, but it won't be long before we start the ascent.
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Yes if summer were a long weekend (and what a weekend it's been) we're now in the Monday equivalent. Still some time to enjoy but the main peak (Saturday) is behind us.
The heavy rain of yesterday (in my location) plus a chilly night seems to have removed the last of the residual warmth in the ground.
I'm selfishly happy with how this summer has been and am now looking forward to Autumn
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For the sake of the vulnerable and farmers, I'd happily take a mild and wet winter which previously I've wished against.
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The rating for this Summer is now hanging on the last half of August, historically not a reliable time of year.
If we can manage one more warm spell >25c after this hot spell and before the 31st, Summer 2022 will surely be a top 10 at least for SE England.
Nationally I don't think it'll go down as historic, the North and West have been closer to average.
The true belter needs the whole UK to have 'hottest Summer'. Just shows local vs national stats!
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...and looking at posts from up Merseyside, it's clear how every locale can have big variations in temperature especially during these hot spells. I enjoy watching the weather forecasts but know that the temperatures given as way too broad brush to take literally. To an extent, even weather apps don't factor everything in!
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4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Could really feel the difference driving from the outskirts of SE London back to Gravesend a good 2-3c hotter in the former that bit more inland my thermometer says it briefly touched 31c in Gravesend though cant have been for long my car thermometer was 3c less as I drove between Greenhithe and my place only 3.5-4 miles away!
Yeah North Kent has seen more of a NE wind past few days knocking off several degrees. Less so south of the Downs
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RE GFS temps, the 'UK Max Temperature' on this site isn't the maximum temperature of that day but rather of that frame. It's good to look at the 'UK Min Temperature' of the same frame (normally 2c or 3c lower) and take the average from the two.
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In central southern France in Summer you tend to get maxima in the high 20s / low 30s and minima low teens sometimes single digits. It means early evening (16:00 - 18:00) it's hot >28c mid evening (18:00 - 20:00) when having dinner it's a perfect 24c and late evening it's plummeting. Come bedtime you're below 20c and it's nice and cool for sleeping.
Warm for relaxing outside, but cool enough for sleeping.
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Spotted a 40c in the latest GFS, pffft, yeah right...
...isn't it crazy how as little as 3 weeks ago, most would've thought the same. I can't help feel (even though it's of course FI) we've entered a new era of weather and climate.
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Although I haven't looked, we must be entering hurricane season now. Ex-tropical storms really throw a spanner in the works and scupper any previously agreed outputs. FI draws in to more like 6 days rather than 10.
It does seem to me the Atlantic is picking up some momentum again now and typical La Nina background state takes over.
All in all, a very normal pattern is set to establish; the NW starting the slow descent into Autumn (summers peak earlier there) with an Azores high perhaps giving warmer conditions further SE but nothing especially hot. I'm expecting other ensembles to join in soon with the mean backing away from hot conditions.
This is my take on things anyway!
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Autumn feels a long way away at the moment, but I think this year I'll be ready for it. After a good summer (even if August is drab) I'll be looking forward to it.
In all honesty I've already had my summer fix and August will be bonus now!
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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
28C in Biggin Hill at 6am!
Maybe higher elevation keeps temps up overnight as cooler air tends to sink into low lying areas, plus, the uppers are hot so you're nearer to them. I reckon in about two hours the low lying areas will have overtaken.
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Afternoon all,
So the swinging pendulum that is model output is swinging less and less as we come within 48hrs. The last few runs on most models have slowed things down a touch (including the front on Tuesday) which has given us that wiggle room. We (as in people who want new records) needed that as there's less way for it to go further East now.
My main point however is how we will be entering unchartered territory from tomorrow. The models simply don't have the experience of these temperatures in this part of the world. We are talking a couple of degree differences which I don't feel even the best models can nail on in this unusual scenario.
Lots of variables; cloud, wildfire smoke, humidity, ground moisture, wind etc etc which can alter heating affects of the sun.Personally, especially after the 12z GFS, I'm going to give the chart watching a rest now and take my seat with a cold drink and popcorn.
The show is about to begin. Stay cool, stay safe and enjoy. Lets go!
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As always with UK weather events, we're talking tens of miles for the positioning of the low and associated cloud. 50 miles either way will be difference between hitting the 40c or 36c with high cloud. It's going to be knife edge just like snow!
At the moment we've got slight wiggle room over Oxfordshire. If that low corrects just a few more miles west (literally) we're talking absolute belter
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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Aye, saw GFS was showing -1 dew points and 38 degrees!, just hoping it won't feel all that hot
In those conditions if you put ice cubes on the ground they'll sublimate straight to a gas, no melting between!
Not wishing to discount warnings but I think we'll be pleasantly surprised how manageable the heat will be. Standard precautions should suffice, being more mindful when working outdoors of course.
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19 minutes ago, Earthshine said:
The equation describing dew point is rather non trivial and there's a few state variables which determine it. With dry bulb temperature, air temperature and relative humidity we can use the Magnus approximation, where relative humidity is just the ratio of the true vapour pressure of water and the saturation vapour pressure expressed as a percentage (although sometimes between 0 and 1). The saturation vapour pressure is only a function of air temperature using the Arden Buck equations.
Interestingly, despite the models showing very low humidities the air would in fact contain similar amounts of water vapour as much colder air with higher relative humidity. Around 4 times more water vapour can exist in air at 35°C than air at 10°C, with air at -30°C containing practically none.
Here's something I found online with more detail: https://ambientweather.com/faqs/question/view/id/1869/
Thank you @Earthshine that's very useful. In hot spells it's fascinating the impact of DPs, both for how hot it feels along with convection.
At times like this or marginal snow events, I look at DPs immediately after looking at temperature forecasts.
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To add to the topic of dew points and interpreting figures in charts, DP is what the temperature needs to get down to for water vapour to condense onto surfaces. Put the DP figure against the air temp you have your relative humidity. 100% and you have fog. However, I'd love to know the calculation: DP of 20c against temp 30c = 66% assuming baseline 0c. However what is DP -10c against temp -2c? What's the baseline?
Relative humidity aside, DPs in the single digits make extreme heat very manageable. There's drama in the news (MO warnings, Cobra), but if DPs are what charts are showing I think sensible precautions would do us just fine even in upper 30s.
My take:
Below 0c: dry as, you don't even build up sweat it evaporates so quickly. Any temp is fine as long as one hydrates.
1c - 7c: very standard most of the year in the UK. Body stays cool enough in heat apart from exercise.
8c - 14c: air starts to feel moist, but any heat is still okay although exercise is rather hot and sweaty.
15c - 19c: getting clammy and exercise is a slog. Any heat starts to show its hand and people who aren't good with heat struggle.
20c - 24c: just walking around is sweaty, things start to get difficult for everyone.
25c or above, your body can't cool off because sweat doesn't evaporate much. A sit down day.
I've been in 48c with DPs around 5c, and 28c with DPs at 25c, easy to say which one was worse!
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38.1c, Gravesend, on the 18th
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39c for Monday, massive downgrade
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Morning all, some cloud this way which kept temps up overnight.
If one is to liken Summer to a long weekend celebration or festival, we're now at the peak. Everything is rocking and the main stage is buzzing.
May is like Friday, a sense of build up and anticipation as people arrive and settle in. No big party yet but spirits are high.
June is like Saturday, the first main day and the party is setting in.
July is the Sunday, the other main day and often with the main acts. There's still a day off tomorrow so the drinks flow and everyone is in the swing of it.
Then August, the wind down day. Everyone is a bit jaded and the prospect of going back to work (or the Autumn) starts to loom. Sometimes, especially for those who've booked off another day, the good vibes continue albeit more feet up affair.
September for many is back to work day although some have this day off and can have a last chance to enjoy oneself.
Like celebrations or festivals, they can vary just like Summer. Sometimes, especially in more recent years it's peaked early before tailing off in August. Sometimes like 2016, the main bit was late! Also, they can really hit the mark like 2018, or can be a bit underwhelming like 2011.
So far this Summer it's been going well (for the SE anyway) with Autumn a long long way away. I've got a suspicion that August will disappoint as it often has in recent years, but let's enjoy now!
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Yes a surprising amount of agreement, but let's face it that means nothing at day 8+.
We're looking at a decent few days which I'm loving, but for a true hot spell I'm mindful about a pool of relatively cold uppers over Hudson and East Canada tomorrow and Friday. This looks set to create disturbances and give some energy to jetstream. Just like winter, a stronger jetstream ruins anything seasonal.
All I'm saying, there's still a good chance this'll go wrong from a heat lovers POV.
By the weekend we'll have a good idea what's going on and how our beloved HP will fare as lows moved around. Will lows keep HP in perfect shape whist pumping that 20c line our way? Or will they just erode the top putting the UK back I'm square one?
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9 hours ago, danm said:
There was a lot of sunny weather right through the summer. Not all the time ofcourse, but it's never all of the time in the UK. 20+ days of temperatures above 30°c across two consecutive summers is excellent in my book. That's approaching 1/6th of both of those summers with temperatures that high.
If we think about it another way - how many days across both summers did temperatures exceed 24°c (which is our average daily maxima in July).
In 2019, it was 46. In 2020 in was 36 - and that isn't including the exceptional Spring we had, just the three summer months. 82 days in total out of 182 across June, July and August of both years. That's temperatures exceeding 24°c 45% of the time across two consecutive summers.
If we look at the temperature and sunshine anomalies, both stack up pretty well.
2019 had above average sunshine for our part of the world and above average temperatures for most of the UK:
2020 also had just above average sunshine for the SE and above average temperatures for central, southern and SE England:
I like the 'days >24c' count as a measure of a pleasant summer. 24c, if slightly on the warm side at lunchtime, you're talking temps around 19c - 22c late afternoon / evening, a perfectly comfortable temperature at a time of day when most people spend their down time.
Actual tallies would work way better than averages.
WEEK A:
22c; 25c; 23c; 27c; 24c; 25c; 22c;
WEEK B:
20c; 37c; 39c; 21c; 18c; 16c; 17c.
Both weeks have average high of 24c, I know which one I'd take!
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My takes on recent Summers in North Kent (including May and September) as someone who wants warmth and sun:
2022 so far: running to script
2021: role reversal
2020: a proper stay at home summer (locally excellent)
2019: spikey
2018: belter
2017: good start, poor finish
2016: poor start, good finish
2015: one day wonder
2014: steady, but played it safe
2013: hot in the middle
2012: indoor clothes horse / tumble dryer job
2011: dry and drab
2010: short and sweet
2009: bog standard
2008: boring
2007: season skipped
2006: belter
2005: not old enough to properly remember
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Can't see an SSW happening either. What we could do with is a very mild winter, but with a 1 week BTFE somewhere in the middle. Less strain on heating overall but a snow fix for the coldies!