East Lancs Rain

Yes I’m worried about it, therefore I hope we get the mildest winter on record!

Brrrrr! I admire your dedication for not giving in for so long! I put mine on in late September!

Gone very foggy here, often the case on bonfire night. Moon was out earlier, currently 6°C with 92% humidity.

Pity really as I'd like one last blast of warmth before winter arrives. October 2017, 2018 and 2021 had some very mild/warm days but October 2019 and 2020 were rubbish, just cold, miserable and wet. However some of the model output was hinting at a warmer period around St Martins Summer (third week of October) so hopefuly that comes off. Here are some time lapses from recent Octobers (not mine but from the Greater Manchester area). Hopefully we get plenty of days like this this coming winter to keep the bills down.

Still dry here. It's not been a bad weekend to be fair. It has stayed dry with plenty of sunshine on offer, and temperatures have been relatively mild for the time of year around 14C. It has clouded over now though. Defintely had far worse weekends in October, or even in Summer for that matter. It's not been too bad this October - quite mild, sunshine levels not too bad, been a bit wet but it's October so what else can you expect? We've definetely had worse Octobers - 2017, 2019 and 2020 come to mind. October 2017 did had that amazing storm though (ex-hurricane Ophelia) which brought a very strange days weather. I remember the day started off exceptionally mild but grey and then at lunchtime the sky turned a weird red colour. In the afternoon the sun came out and it turned exceptionally warm for the time of year with temps in the low 20's but also very windy. That day was five years ago, wow, time flies. There were a couple of seasonal cool sunny days with cold mornings but the rest of the month was just exceptionally cloudy, mild, wet and windy.

Not a bad weekend here. Stayed dry with plenty of sunshine and temperatures have been fairly mild for the time of year around 14 celcius. It's gone cloudy now though, with rain forecast tongiht.

Thanks for explaning. I think Winter 2018/19 would count as a bartlett winter then as that was dominated by high pressure to the south but also ridging over the UK, it was very mild, record breakingly so in February 2019 but also quite dry. It actually felt milder to me than Winter 2019/20 as although that winter was very mild temperature wise, the constant wind and rain made it feel colder. The only cold weather that winter was in the second half of January. I also remember one night in early February when the temperature dropped to about -7C. I would ideally like a repeat of Winter 2018/19. December was very mild but also wet at times, so would give some useful rainfall, and that February felt more like the middle of Spring. It felt quite surreal actually. But it would be awesome to get a February like that in the middle of an energy crisis. November 2018 was pleasant too, dry, mild and sunny. I suspect the coming winter will probably be mild because of the strong westerly QBO this year. We are well overdue a washout summer, last one was in 2012, it will only be a matter of time until the next one...

There will be far more deaths this winter whether it is a severe winter or not. The office for national statistics revealed that there were 28,300 excess deaths in winter 2019/20, and that was a very mild winter. 8,500 died in cold homes alone that winter. New ONS figures reveal cold homes death toll - National Energy Action (NEA) WWW.NEA.ORG.UK My point was that even in a mild winter you get far more deaths than you do in a hot summer. I know that may be hard for some of the coldies on here to accept, but it is true. Yes, in Summer 2018 the high pressure was much more prolonged but the wind was much more easterly rather than southerly like in a lot of recent summer, so the heat wasn't as intense, esspecially for eastern areas.

Turned into quite a nice day here. The morning was horrible - very heavy rain and only 11°C but the afternoon has been much better- plenty of sunshine and only a couple of showers. 🌤🌦 Gone out for a nice autumn walk, nice seeing the leaves on the ground. Amazing how many leaves have fallen over the last few days. Temp 12.5°C, ideal conditions for walking.

A lot more lives will be lost this coming winter, with the energy crisis. Whether it was the “worst summer“ is completely subjective as a lot of people enjoyed it. Summer 2018 was hotter anyway.

Worse than 2018? Summer 2018 was hotter, in June and July anyway. August 2018 was cooler though.

I’m surprised about that, as summer 2018 was hotter, at least here anyway. It was probably during the two extremely hot days in July that most of the death occurred. There will probably be a lot of excess deaths this winter too as people can’t afford to put the heating on.

And here in east lancs it’s been mostly cloudy and wet as usual. 🌧 I don’t take any notice of these forecasts anymore. There’s always people ramping up the prospect of cold every winter, but it very rarely happens. One of the worst offenders was Nathan Rao from the Daily Express or the infamous James Madden from Exacta Weather. This autumn has been incredibly boring for me, since I came back from holiday on the 11th Sep daytime temps have stayed pretty much in the 12-16°C range. A cool and mostly dry September followed by a mild wet first week of October. I liked last years autumn a lot better, although November was just very cloudy and mild but then it nearly always is. My favourite autumn is probably 2018 I would say. Autumn 2016 was quite nice too.

Hope not!!! That will not be good for either the drought or the energy situation. A mild, wet end to the year is what’s needed. Could do with another Nov and Dec 2015 combo.. Send it over here! What’s a Bartlett winter? A mild and wet winter would be ideal to refill the reservoirs and to ease the burden on our wallets. The ideal winter (for me anyway) this year would be to have a repeat of December 2015, January 2007 and February 2019! It would be record breakingly mild, and the excessive rain that the north would get during December would very quickly put an end to the drought situation! ️ Yes of course energy bills will be expensive no matter what happens, as we will still need to put the lights on at 4/5 pm, however the milder it is the less heating will be needed and therefore more money saved. Whether it’s damp or not won’t make a difference to indoor temperature (a bit of winter sun can warm up south facing rooms during the middle of the day though.) I seem to remember heavy snow just before Xmas eve that year. Traffic was so bad took me about 45 mins to get home on the bus for what would normally be a 5 minute trip.

We have a gas fire which I presume will work in a power cut but the boiler won’t so no central heating for me if we lose power.

Quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon here and it has stayed dry. Mild too with a high of 16°C. It has been quite windy though. ️

Having had a look on United utilities website yes Pennine sources are very low around 35% but it varies a lot from area to area, some of the other reservoirs aren’t too bad, in fact West Cumbria reservoirs are at 98% capacity. However after all the rain we’ve had recently, all the reservoirs are now slowly filling up again, especially Carlisle with a 15% increase in one week! As long as this more unsettled pattern continues (which at the moment it appears to be) there is nowt to worry about. If you want a wet winter than fair enough. Just don’t complain about the mild temperatures that will come with it. I hope we don’t!!! Our energy bills this winter will be expensive enough thank you very much. Yeah, not great. It’s a shame the U.K. is so exposed to the Atlantic and we have endure weeks (or even months sometimes) of cloud, wind and rain while most of Europe gets lots of dry, warm, sunny weather. It would be nice to get at least a couple of days of Indian summer (hi teens/low 20’s and sunny) but that is increasingly unlikely now. Once an Atlantic pattern is established it can take a long time for it to shift (winter 2019/20 being a good example). Was hoping to be able to wear shorts one last time this year but it looks like I won’t be doing now. If only the U.K. was a few hundred miles south west the weather would be so much better. Still, things could be worse, at least we didn’t get this pattern during the summer, and the rain will help replenish the reservoirs. That will be a bit shock after low-mid 20’s temps. Amazing how quick it changes over there. Meanwhile here the temps have been very consistent, since mid-September temps have been 12-16°C, since I’ve come back from holiday on the 11th Sep I’ve not had a single day reach 20°C or in single digits. Zzzzzzzzzz Not surprised. Very warm autumn, exceptionally mild January (CET of over 7°C), warmest April on record. Yes, October is often a boring month, too late for summer warmth, but too early for anything wintery. It is closest to long term averages. At least in April you can anything from snow to 25°C sunshine. Make up your mind! Last month you were complaining it was too cold. Hopefully not. Energy bills are now expensive enough as it is!

7-10 degree maxes is average winter temps for the south these days. So more like 10-13°C in the South during an exceptionally mild winter. Which may well be enough to keep a modern, well insulated house around 18 degrees. A mild winter will definitely help out anyway. The last thing we need is a cold winter this year!

Still dry here (I think), I will probably get it in a bit, you’re just down the road from me. Doesn’t look too bad here, still plenty of dry weather between weather systems. Had a look at the precipitation predictions, wetter than average for Scotland, drier than average for the south and the midlands, near average rainfall for north west England. All areas milder than average. The temperatures have been very consistent recently in the mild 13 to 16° range. October is the most boring month of the year. Too late for some summer warmth but still too early for anything wintry. It is closest to Long term averages.

Meh, 30-40 mph wind gusts is hardly noteworthy for October. Yeah we are in a proper zonal pattern now, high-pressure to the south low-pressure to the north. Wetter than average in the north and dryer than average in the south and all areas milder than average. We’ll soon be hearing that familiar phrase on the tv weather forecasts “at least it will be mild”

Typical overcast, damp and breezy October day. It has been mild though, max 16.3, min 12.8, still 15.1 now with 96% humidity. A very mild night.

Someone is going to have a very big heating bill this winter... Maybe so but unfortunately a lot of people simply wont be able to afford to heat their house to 18 degrees this winter. Sadly I think we’ll see a big increase in cases/deaths from flu, hypothermia and leukaemia this winter. Which is why I’m hoping we get an exceptionally mild winter this year.

Not sure I’d describe yesterday as “fantastic” but yes we had some useful rain yesterday. Just checked bbc weather app for my area and after tomorrow it’s rain or showers pretty much every single day. It might be a desert in Sheffield but here in damp east Lancs the grass is sopping wet, I’ve had plenty of rain in September and I certainly don’t want a repeat of October 2019 - February 2020 when it rained and rained and rained for months on end and caused a lot of problems with flooding and damage from strong winds. Give it a few months and we’ll be having floods up and down the country and the drought will become a distant memory I bet you. That said, a mild and wet winter would be ideal to relieve not only the drought but to ease the struggle of the high energy prices. Id like at least a few days of 15-20°C and sunny in October first though, it’s a long wait until next spring. As long as we don’t get low pressure stuck under us for months on end like what happened between October 2019 and February 2020. A good five months of wet and windy weather, and temps in that chilly but not freezing cold 7-13°C range. Can they? February 2019 had a lot of tropical continental air, and we had lots of exceptionally warm, sunny weather. More like a stinker of an autumn day here, max of 14°C with lots of heavy showers and gusty winds. 🌦 Not much sunshine between the showers either. Amazing how much warmer and drier the south can be in a zonal setup at this time of year. Max of just 14.5°C here, with lots of rain and some gusty winds at times.

The worrying thing is that we don’t know how much they are going to go up. If these huge price increases happen every year (or worse twice a year) then gas and electric could soon become unfordable for most, plunging us back into the Victorian era. I cannot imagine a life without electricity, lighting, kitchen appliances and the internet. That must suck. Even when I go on holiday most b&b’s/hotels have en-suites now. You could always just put on a jacket when you go to the bathroom I guess.

Typical autumnal wet and windy day here, currently 11.3°C with 99% humidity. 🌧 Like a typical mild winter day.