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ChannelThunder

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Everything posted by ChannelThunder

  1. ChannelThunder
    The storms have made a nice line for me already, I just extended it.
  2. ChannelThunder
    Direction of travel on the imports would seem to put them between here and Weymouth, but you can see them wanting to veer a little more eastwards with time. Beggars can't be choosers, but if they could arrive just after sunset, that'd be ideal!
  3. ChannelThunder
    These storms are getting more organised, and they're not even modelled from what I can see. I'm going to plump for some positivity based on this and say I think it's a case of 'anything can happen' later on today:
  4. ChannelThunder
    Time to keep an eye on the Brest area (...stop it!) for the afternoon for this evening's potential storms for the SE Edit: sorry, I seem to have liked the word 'for' a lot in that sentence
  5. ChannelThunder
    Riveting stuff. Eat your heart out, Weed Strimmer.
  6. ChannelThunder
    Well, technically that was a storm, so I've had at least one at home this year! Through the sheer amount of low cloud it was mostly just a pink flash and boom affair. I don't know why I do it to myself, but waiting for UKV 9z to roll out as to whether tonight has much hope here. EDIT: and like that, it comes out, and it's pants
  7. ChannelThunder
    Lots of thunder now, time to go to the back window to have a little watch.
  8. ChannelThunder
    As a side note, if you compare that to Arome, the model is showing absolutely nothing in that area of France right now!
  9. ChannelThunder
    If these are this evening's storms, then it's already game over for anywhere west of Kent after this first band.
  10. ChannelThunder
    Yep, lightning and rain actually increasing slightly on approach, for once!
  11. ChannelThunder
    Glad it's not just me RE the low cloud all over the shop. Looks anything but convective out there!
  12. ChannelThunder
    It's almost like we woke up knowing exactly what the models would show, from past experience! It's definitely pessimism, but not unjustified or detached from reality.
  13. ChannelThunder
    Absolute troll of a model. It's completely removed any chance for us tonight, so I'm back to feeling justified in throwing in the towel on Friday!
  14. ChannelThunder
    I'm not even sure anymore! But if UKV's still showing something similar for the evening through tomorrow, I'll at least be confident enough to put some charge in the old DSLR batteries for the first time in this country this year.
  15. ChannelThunder
    18z out now and actually, it is fairly similar!
  16. ChannelThunder
    Very much a Kent Clipper on the Arome. It'll be interesting to see if UKV is onboard with that on the 15z, because on the previous runs it's far from a KC!
  17. ChannelThunder
    I see you guys have factored in the 2023 Isle of Wight storm shield there, fair play!
  18. ChannelThunder
    Pinch of salt time. UKV tomorrow 8pm: This lot turns into quite the organised band of storms as it pushes northwards later in the night.
  19. ChannelThunder
    I find old Tony G's outlooks a bit hit and miss. For example, he didn't even have Peterborough & The Wash in his risk area last weekend...and look what happened there. Not a dig or anything, as his efforts are appreciated of course and spot on sometimes! Let's hope he's right with his orange box for tomorrow
  20. ChannelThunder
    Yep, nearest lightning strike to the UK mainland was a good 60 miles offshore. Tomorrow's 'thundery rain' band has now been delayed even further, with models seemingly having picked up a slowing of the low pressure system coming north. While this keeps more of us in the unstable air for longer into the evening (see scattered storms on UKV), I find myself unable to trust these models as far as I could throw them right now!
  21. ChannelThunder
    I've already thrown in the towel for this weekend. Once again it looked good 2 days ago on the models for tomorrow night, but now we're seemingly down to a band of rain at 9am on Sunday which will likely contain lightning in the channel, but die off as it comes in here.
  22. ChannelThunder
    Can confirm Paul is doing good; I went chasing with him in Arizona last month! From spending time with him I think he's just given up with storms in his area, so that'll probably explain why he's not posted in a while. We saw some crackers over the pond though of course! While I'm on the subject, I made a thread about that trip, including photos and a blog I wrote, over in the Storm Chase USA forum on here, if you or anyone else is interested! Such a great holiday
  23. ChannelThunder
    Think of it like the model's version of how it 'thinks' the rain radar will look at a certain point in the future, i.e. blues as light rain, up to reds as torrential. That's probably the simplest way of explaining it.
  24. ChannelThunder
    Morning is quite possibly the worst time for storms It's free on a few sites, yeah. My go-to for ease-of-use is WXCharts - that link should take you straight to the 'Radar Reflectivity' chart for England & Wales.
  25. ChannelThunder
    I believe this is the area to watch on Satellite and eventually radar this evening: It's going to take until the early hours for that to crawl its way to the UK mainland. New Arome rolling out now...
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