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Everything posted by ChannelThunder
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
They'll probably hold off until tomorrow, I'd imagine. The track of the low isn't nailed-on enough yet, and I'm seeing hints in the models that it could actually end up diving a little further south and largely being a problem for France...but we'll see -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
What f/stop was that? Must have caught you out with its brightness/closeness? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ChannelThunder replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Storm Ciaran looks all but certain, then. Could be the strongest wind event for the south since Eunice in Feb of last year. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
ChannelThunder replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As a fan of turbulent weather, that looks quite something for the middle of the week. I wonder if ECM will fall in line with the others over the track? It tends to keep these systems further west (like on its previous runs for this one), and it tends to be correct in the end... -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That line west of Cherbourg looks pretty encouraging on radar for Sussex and eastwards, I'd say. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well, in the time I went to help the other half with the Indian she's knocking up for dinner, that died off pretty quickly! Probably just as well as I was starting to get the third degree about saying I might nip out just before dinner... -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The sferics are lost in this wet mess... Too wet for shooting other than setting up in the shelter of the car boot perhaps... -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A subtle eastward shift on the latest UKV. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Was the Lymington downpour at about 1pm or thereabouts? We were walking the dog up Broad Lane, which has a great view over Lymington etc. We watched as the town disappeared under an intense rain core that I couldn't believe wasn't popping out lightning. In other news, TORRO have issued a tornado watch for many of us for later!- 458 replies
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Controversial to some no doubt, but I do enjoy weather like this where we're pummeled with days of unstable autumnal conditions. Yes, they're not proper thunderstorms for the most part, but it's all good fun. Could be a named storm next Thurs to add to the interest, too. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ah, but this side's much nicer overall -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I was in a work call at the time, but plenty of cracks of thunder recently. East side of the island having the most fun though as per! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Well, I was right about that! An absolute procession of anvils over the channel for the last 24 hours. They're all lined up again this morning. -
Flood problems all around the island this morning it seems. Fantastic call with the rain warning from the MO.
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
ECM has looked fairly interesting for later this week and the weekend for its last few runs. Plenty of heavy showers in coastal areas particular, and it's that time of year where the warm seas can help generate a decent thermal gradient for those to become thundery. I suspect to see many an anvil out over the channel in the coming week. -
Purely speculating here, but I reckon 2022's extensive drought and heatwaves have messed with their rhythm.
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Certainly looks like an interesting week of weather, even if I don't personally agree with it warranting a name. Given a couple of weeks ago, much of October threatened a benign period of nothingness in the models, I'll take it happily.
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Very surprised to see this system named!
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While I do enjoy these dry & sunny days, the sun's lost enough of its power now to be of little use, so bring on the proper autumn deluge shown in the models!
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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There are some very late season plume storms showing for Weds night on ECM. One to watch. Last year showed what's still possible in October in that regard! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Some lovely Accas around today; if I didn't know we were under HP, I'd be hopeful of some late-season action later! -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just a few scattered showers, dry for many. -
Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023
ChannelThunder replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes, not the first time UKV has failed on the storm front this year.