ChannelThunder

Wow, if AROME's not even interested, this could well indeed be a no-go!

Good to hear there is potentially a second stab at this during more favourable night time hours. I did spot something on the 00z GFS showing that but thought it must have been smoking something.

Wow, what a downer from the models this morning! Maybe I won't be chasing at all tomorrow

I'd take that one right now. I wouldn't even have to travel that far to see something

Yes, the GFS 12z continues with this theme. At this rate it's going to be a London-eastwards only affair. I mean, it always looked that way anyway going by how these things usually go, but now the models are backing up that idea

I was lucky enough to be living in Canterbury at the time that came in. It was a great evening. We'd been at Margate for the hot sunshine that day, and you could see the top of the storm from there while it was still over France it was that big. By the time we were home, that shelf cloud with its incredible winds came in. Not a sight you expect to see in the UK and an experience akin to many I had in the States last year while chasing! The only disappointing thing was that the storm split and the best lightning went toward both west Kent and the Dover Strait.

Supercells the size of the UK? The hail core alone would be the size of Scotland!

Same. Here's hoping a nighttime plume event is just around the corner regardless of what happens Thursday!

Well, that's Thursday booked as leave from work. Might be hitting the road early and home by mid-afternoon looking at the timings!

Good to know, thank you! Thinking I might end up further north than that, but that'll be dependent on the forecasts and outlooks by our experts! Also, my username did kind of look like it said Ian, so I've changed it...thanks for bringing that to my attention even though you didn't mean to! Haha

Very tempted to book Thursday off work and take a drive to the other side of London Only a couple of hours away with the current emptier roads. Is East England good for chasing? Nice and flat obviously, but where are the best vantage points?

Me too! Thursday morning is no good for anyone who has a 9-5 job! If this could all be delayed until Thursday night, that'd be ideal!

Yeah, really don't take percentages literally at all, especially 3 days out. Also, GFS is a low-res model.

Wow, GFS definitely upping the game now. Not sure on that timing though, it's got them first developing at 6am, so it must be seeing some elevated potential. If it could bring it forward by 6 hours so I can get some night time photos, I'd be delighted!

Doesn't look like a good one for us storm lovers. A slight chance in the east on Thurs

Looking at the models, I think I'm inclined to reluctantly join the 'no plumes this May' club.

Sounds....tasty! My version of that model only goes up to midnight Tuesday night, so guessing I'd need to be a sub to view any further

Huh?

So, is that twice in 24 hours that GFS has hit us with the same bullseye low pressure, only for it to disappear completely on the next respective run?

Latest GFS run looks nice and thundery late next week. It's overdone these cut off lows in the past though, so I'm off to grab a very large pinch of salt

Whatever it is, it needs to do one!

Aren't we all this season needs to deliver, especially for all those unable to go over to the Alley!

Not sure what's going on there, as we're right underneath HP during the weekend according to both GFS and ECM

Not expecting any storms today, however it's notable how unstable the skies look this morning. Currenty they're full of Ac Cas, pretty chunky too!

Hope somebody in Wales/the Midlands has some fun today! It's a shame this damn northerly is going to prevent would could have been a good plume opportunity coming up from the south. I can't stand northerlies in the winter, but this is the first time in a while I've really had to dislike one in BST!