ChannelThunder

06z GFS still looking promising convection wise. And what's that sneaking into the SE corner from France late on Friday night?

Same here for when I visited Gambia in the wet season! It was forecasting them constantly. The reality was around half a dozen immense storms in the 14 days I was there. 98% of the time it was dry and sunny.

Agreed - this is why I prefer to watch the BBC/Met Office forecasts via TV/Youtube than view their location-based app forecasts. Their respective apps often don't even line up with the more detailed overview and thoughts of the meteorologists themselves! Interestingly, although I've 'mocked' the appearance of the lightning symbol for 7 hours in the post above, for the April 2018 plume event down here, the BBC's location forecast for Southampton was the only one (that I know of) showing storms a something like a week before the event. This shows that, albeit rarely, it can be onto something!

Right on cue, here's a classic BBC move since partnering with Meteogroup:

2019 gets a bad press, but down here in the south I don't remember much in the way of unsettled weather, so it seemed pretty decent to me. Not so in terms of storms though, that one disappointing plume in July left a lot to be desired.

Ha! What a load of nonsense!

From memory, I seem to recall a few low pressures taking this track down the years, so this one doesn't strike me as all that bizarre, but unusual, yes.

Some more very encouraging model runs today for us storm fans. Next weekend onward could be interesting. Everything crossed for a few days of humid, stormy fun.

Ah I see! Yeah that'd annoy me too. There's a video of a crazy strobing storm in Florida from around a week ago on YouTube. You'd have a field day in the comments section. 10% of the comments are sensible, but the rest consist of the storm being 'unnatural', created by 'HAARP', or religious nonsense, and a hell of a lot of comments calling it 'heat lightning'. Then, on top of all that, there's a tonne of people asking why there's no thunder (despite the storm clearly being many miles away), and others replying to them claiming it's normal to have no thunder with heat lightning. I despair!

Isn't that just a layman's term for IC lightning? Its use doesn't bother me.

Look for the post from 80sWeather from around 3 hours ago, I believe that's the link being referred to

You can't be telling me it's better than those storms in Florida!?

Fingers crossed for today Supacell. So far we've had about 3 raindrops over the last few days around here, so I'm sure the rain-shield will once again send everything to the west and east of here again, like with yesterday's showers Flicking through GFS and ECM this morning is interesting for potential going into next weekend. ECM does the unthinkable and sends an MCS directly westwards out of Benelux, taking it across most of southern England! So yeah, I doubt that'd ever happen in reality

Looking at the radar, it seems I'm too far west for the flow of showers to come over this way. The drought continues!

Those SPC outlooks would be filling me with excitement if, like last year, I was out there right now! There are some glorious northern plains chase opportunities there. Looking at this stuff only makes the itch to get back out there next year stronger! Fingers crossed.

Me too. Never trust a 6+ days out 'plume' on a model. It only ever lets you down.

The next hot spell, after the next 2 weeks of cooler and cloudier conditions have passed. Date wise, I'll go 24th June

There's a surprise! The ground here was barely dampened by the 'rain' yesterday. I'd be willing to bet that'll be the case for the foreseeable, despite the doom and gloom chat in the last 24 hours about the models!

I've heard Windows can be good for that too! I'll get my coat.

No chance I'm afraid. Those storms are miles away and the upper flow is from the north.

The radar returns aren't even reaching the ground here so far. Cloud base does look high.

RE flooding potential; I don't see that being an issue, as that rainfall accumulation chart clearly seems to be over-exaggerating things compared to the general model output. A week or two of spread-out rainfall events shouldn't lead to any problems, then summer can (and I'm sure will) resume

Good. It's so needed.

Good point, I hadn't spotted that. Cross-model agreement is always encouraging!

We've definitely earned ourselves a biscay low churning up multiple rounds of downpours and thunderstorm potential. I'm highly skeptical. It looks good on the GFS 6z, but GFS has a recent history of placing lows down to the SW, which rarely come off in reality. Still, fingers crossed.