ChannelThunder

Wow, GFS definitely upping the game now. Not sure on that timing though, it's got them first developing at 6am, so it must be seeing some elevated potential. If it could bring it forward by 6 hours so I can get some night time photos, I'd be delighted!

Doesn't look like a good one for us storm lovers. A slight chance in the east on Thurs

Looking at the models, I think I'm inclined to reluctantly join the 'no plumes this May' club.

Sounds....tasty! My version of that model only goes up to midnight Tuesday night, so guessing I'd need to be a sub to view any further

Huh?

So, is that twice in 24 hours that GFS has hit us with the same bullseye low pressure, only for it to disappear completely on the next respective run?

Latest GFS run looks nice and thundery late next week. It's overdone these cut off lows in the past though, so I'm off to grab a very large pinch of salt

Whatever it is, it needs to do one!

Aren't we all this season needs to deliver, especially for all those unable to go over to the Alley!

Not sure what's going on there, as we're right underneath HP during the weekend according to both GFS and ECM

Not expecting any storms today, however it's notable how unstable the skies look this morning. Currenty they're full of Ac Cas, pretty chunky too!

Hope somebody in Wales/the Midlands has some fun today! It's a shame this damn northerly is going to prevent would could have been a good plume opportunity coming up from the south. I can't stand northerlies in the winter, but this is the first time in a while I've really had to dislike one in BST!

I reckon the first plume will be around the 24th May. Really hoping for a thundery June, like in 2014 I think it was. Junes since then have generally been barren for storms IIRC.

Wow, seriously?? He should try Gambia in wet season, I managed to sleep in 100% humdity with mins of 28C at 4am. Worth it for the storms of course!

For storms? No chance in Kent, sorry.

It looks as if both ECM and GFS develop the same plume next weekend, although the former brings in that horrible northerly and helps keeps the plume squished down in France.

Glad you said it, because I was going to if not They're so rare in the UK, not even sure when we last had one.

Yep, by the seaside is the best place to be for a storm! Especially those plume MCSs, like in my profile picture, which was taken off the coast of Hampshire. A nice storm has just fired in the Gatwick area, I think that's the second one they've had there today. My area would now seem to be out of the game for any convective action, as pressure slowly increases through the afternoon from the west

No supercells over Sandown an hour or so ago on radar, just a thin but potent line of standard, albeit potent cells

Nice little storm going on in Bournemouth.

Just had a 30-second long hailstorm, while still in bright sunshine!

Yeah, 2 days ago the GFS (or Goofus as you called it earlier in the week Paul ) had a cracking plume coming in on Tuesday night, but it's caught up with the other models now, and even if the LP does make inroads to the South of the country, it's looking like giving some frontal rain at the most. There's always hope for some good imported storms at some point in May, I'm not getting too despondent at the models just yet, as I'd rather not see plumes on them 7+ days out when they rarely materialise in reality!

I will take that run, it still looks good for the plume...let's hope it's right against all the models that are not interested!

Still a way off, but the potential plume event next week is beginning to take a really nice shape on GFS, which hits us with two rounds of activity on both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Sadly, ECM is really not interested and keeps it firmly as a cut-off low near Portugal. A lot to play for.

Absolutely, you can see on the radar that it's already becoming standard frontal rainfall over there. If there had been a chance of storms over here, we would have been talking about it for days, and there would have been convective outlooks and the like issued.