[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Things have become much messier today compared to the much cleaner evolutions of a few days ago, just don’t want things to get any messier. Otherwise the real cold will struggle to make it to the UK

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, Garthvader said:

Surely not abysmal!

Compared to recent runs it is, I’d have no faith in the cold ever reaching us if things played out the way the ECM went this morning.

Seemed more by luck than anything that the run ended somewhat cold.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

No matter how you dress it up, compare what the ECM has just churned out this morning to a few days ago. It’s abysmal!

But much more in line with how cold spells usually play out for the UK. Let’s just hope it’s very wrong this morning!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

Day after day there were a few people here posting the Ensembles with much delight, but again as I said before they can go just as wrong the next day, and so they have! An almost complete u-turn! 

The ensembles are so fickle, they can have almost complete agreement and tight clustering for cold run after run. And just like that they flip.

We’ve seen it with so many potential cold spells!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Watch the Greeks freeze while we’re left in no mans land with high pressure around the UK.

Not that that’s a bad outcome, as we don’t need anymore rain. But it’s something that’s happened far too frequently in recent years.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

People will never learn, this is the UK and we can never celebrate until the cold spell is in our backyards. Something always goes wrong, especially looking at charts 10+ days away.

Let’s hope the models are just having a bit of a wobble, but we’ve seen this so many times before. Solid agreement run after run, then it slowly starts to unravel.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, TSNWK said:

its trending wrong on 06Z at day 8 heights less north and that pesky low to our south-west is closer....

Yes, that low to the SW is starting to become a nuisance 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is a very fine balance, I think.  From a southern UK point of view (particularly the SW), the sweet spot regarding disruptive snow can be very close to the disaster you describe, in as much as you want the cold air in place and lows from the Atlantic passing just to the south, which inevitably pushes the cold air back north.  

For once let’s just have a damn cold spell without any marginality, let’s get the entire UK with sufficient enough cold uppers, with troughs etc in the flow and no signs of lows approaching from the south.

We all know how that tends to end recently whenever the Atlantic gets a sniff of a look in!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Don’t really post on here much anymore, especially the mad thread as I can already see posts over there of this January could rival 47,63 with record breaking cold etc etc. How many times have we seen that before?

But one thing is for sure, it’s going to turn much drier which I’m sure we’re all very relieved about. We’ll just have to wait and see what depth of cold we can eventually tap into, if any of course.

But I genuinely hope we do see a good easterly set up, as the SE and EA deserve it. We’ve all waited so long and nothing beats the buzz in this thread watching those snow showers pile in off of the North Sea.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Watching this mornings GFS 00z run, you just have to laugh. The UK basically manages to avoid every real cold plunge by a matter of miles as it keeps dropping into Europe.

I guess Brexit really does mean Brexit

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Same old story yet again, signs of promise and it’s disappearing with every run.

Late December we said, then early Jan, now likely mid Jan at the earliest. 
 

Same old story as every winter, doesn’t matter what the background signals are.

Fully expect the met office to back away from anything cold soon too.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Feel like it’s time to just forget the weather models for the Christmas period, then see how things look come the New Year.

Because if you’re a coldie the runs are just so poor currently and I don’t see a quick way out of this. I don’t think anyone thought things would look quite this poor to end the year

There will always be the next chase, let’s just hope it’s one we can finally land in 2024!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

You just know at some point to really put the nail in the coffin, the US will eventually see the cold return and lock us into more wind and rain as the jet fires up.

This month has been a huge opportunity to hit something in terms of cold, and we still can’t get things to fall for us. Let’s hope something happens come the new year, and we’re not still saying the same come February yet again!

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Different patterns, but this December feels like it’s playing out a lot like last year.

All that early promise, we said it won’t be long for the next cold spell etc etc. Yet once the Atlantic broke through, we were chasing nothingness for the rest of the winter.

Our last real chase came in March, which also ended in a whimper for cold.

Feel like that late Nov/ early December cold snap is very common recently, just to get nothing else of real note all winter.

As sad as it is, in the UK nowadays we seem to be relying on a SSW every winter to shake things up and at least give us a chance at cold.

Because no matter how the northern hemisphere looks or what the background signals are, getting cold into this country is becoming harder than ever.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think this GFS run shows why as long as the overall pattern is for this high to build to our W/NW, we’re always in the game.

Some runs have obviously been better than others, but the overall pattern keeps giving us the opportunity to open the door to cold.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I know people are looking for long cold spells etc etc.

But this is the UK and we all know how rarely these actually happen. I’d genuinely take this GFS 06z run for the Christmas period. No it’s not winter nirvana, but it offers chances of cold and snow over Christmas. It’s a hell of a lot better than things could look!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I keep saying it, but the overall pattern is all that matters currently. Don’t look for specific details regarding the UK.

Every GFS run that high wants to gradually build W/NW allowing colder Arctic outbreaks. The ECM shows hints of the high wanting to do this in the latter frames too. Obviously every run is not going to be identical, but for that far out the consistency in the overall pattern is very good.

In the meantime the next 2 weeks are not going to be exciting, let’s just hope the high can get far enough north over the UK to at least see some frosty nights and chilly days while we wait to see how this plays out.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I don’t get some of the posts in here tonight, the next 2 weeks are not going to look pretty. That’s a given. Dry, but very average temps.

Nothing real interesting is going to show on the ECM timeframe, just have to look for signs of the high getting sucked W/NW in the very last frames. And there are signs of that.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The overall pattern is still very much the same, that’s all that matters.

There’s obviously going to be slight differences run to run, and those slight differences make a huge difference to the UK.

But in the grand scheme of things, everything is going in the right direction. Whether we hit the jackpot or miss out, who knows. But this far out the pattern is all that matters.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

If the GFS does nail this, you have to say the overall consistency run to run has been incredible. Slight variations of course, but the overall pattern and result is always the same!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Whether it’s right or wrong, you have to say the consistency of these GFS runs in the later stages is very impressive. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Let’s get through the next week of Atlantic wind and rain, then get this high in control, dry out and see where we go.

At least it’s looking dry for a while either way, I’d rather it be calm and dry while the jigsaw pieces move around than endure more wind and rain.

Will it all work out, who knows as this is the UK. But once this high gets in, we’re in with a chance.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

You’d genuinely take either GFS run today, 00z or 06z.

Both singing very much from the same hymn sheet, opening up the possibility of real cold just in time for Christmas.

Such a long, long way to go though. Purely fantasy right now, but good to see the option seems to be on the table.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think we’d all take the GFS this morning. End the Atlantic muck and dry out for a week or so.

Nothing overly mild and hopefully feeling seasonal with time under that high, with the potential opening to something much colder later in December.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

As always, once the Atlantic gets in it’s always a long road back to anything cold or dry. We’ve seen it countless times, weak PV, strong PV, good or bad background signals.

Every year we hear this year is different, Atlantic won’t be as present, background signals are more favourable etc etc.

The Atlantic always rules in winter (especially the past 20-30 years) and it takes something special to get out of this rut once it gets going.