[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

7 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

A steadier evolution from tonight's ecm but still heading for cold.

The thing is currently, things always look promising at day 10. But once we get closer, Greenland heights don't don't look as good etc etc.

We need to see a clear path soon, before it's too late into March. But that's just my opinion of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

At this rate we might get some excitement by April. At this time of year if we're going to get cold, it needs to come sooner rather than later.

Each day that passes is huge as we enter March, and the synoptics have to be more and more incredible for anything to truly pay off.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

It's actually looking quite cold in terms of 850s in the SE this weekend/beginning of next week. 

Winter wonderland no, but definitely the possibility of seeing a snow flurry or two. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Just when you want to see some consistency, the GFS throws out a few runs with a west based -NAO.

Leaving us in no mans land, typical

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

While nothing is obviously nailed yet in terms of any cold, the boring crap the models were churning out earlier in the week looks to be fading thankfully.

Who knows if things will fall right for the UK and if we'll be able to tap into deep enough cold. But the game does seem to be on now, just no guarantees of anything.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Doesn't quite land perfectly for us in the UK on this run, but this is what we need to keep our eyes on as we enter march.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

The charts currently don't look like anything you'd expect from a SSW. And I'm talking about the whole northern hemisphere, not just the UK.

Over the next week or so I'd expect the charts to begin to look very, very different to what they are currently showing as we head into the end of February/beginning of March.

Bit of a waiting game currently.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Maybe, just maybe we're now starting to see a way to cold in just over a weeks time. 

High finally starts to get sucked north west as the vortex begins to drain away from Greenland. Let's hope it's something that gains momentum as the SSW gets under way.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Really is just a waiting game currently, just to see if this SSW can bring us into the cold game.

Probably still a good few days/weeks before we see any real hints of anything in the output. But if and when the models do pick up on something, the fireworks could well and truly begin.... or it could just be a damp squib and the fuse never really ignites for us in the UK.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

This winter has just felt very quiet overall, especially here in EA at least. 

There was the excitement of the early December cold spell, with which I was lucky enough to see a little snowfall from. But outside of that it's just felt very quiet, although plenty of frosts here must be said.

But in terms of exciting weather, whether that be cold, snow, storms or any extremes. Just feels like nothing has really happened. And looking at the charts it doesn't look like much is going to change throughout February, unless this potential SSW can provide some excitement towards months end. But I won't be holding my breath on that!

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

If the other models begin to take steps towards the GFS, you just know the GFS will lose all interest in any cold spell now 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

You just know as soon as the GFS backs down, the other models will flip and suddenly show what the GFS was previously showing.

Then the GFS will slowly come back on board, only with everything a little watered down across the board. We've seen it so, so many times.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

If you only followed the GFS, you'd be preparing for a proper freeze up next week from it's consistency.

If only it was that simple hey

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Not gonna lie I'd kinda lost interest in the outlook and models over the past few weeks, but this mornings GFS run has certainly spiked the interest.

Let's hope it's onto something and we all get a snow fix, hell even surface cold would be nice after the recent dire looking output heading into February.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

I know uppers aren't everything. But compared to the past few runs, this morning they look more diluted across the board, overall very uninspiring runs this morning it has to be said.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

I know it's only the 2nd of January, but let's hope the strat forecasts are onto something and we see a warming or a full on SSW.

Because the model viewing is quite simply turgid at the moment, let's hope for some interest in the second half of Jan and into February.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Overall a bit more optimism from the 12z runs so far this afternoon, a bit of interest at the end of next week. And then instead of those euro heights just sitting there, they push northwards through the UK. Certainly opens up possibilities if that trend can continue.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

LOL massive Block Iceland / Greenland and we get wind and rain.

 

Those euro heights are absolutely killing us here, so frustrating. These heights around Greenland won't last forever, so it all adds to the frustration. Not that anything currently modelled is correct of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

If you are in Scotland in particular, it's looking quite promising to say the least for a cold Christmas. Same for Northern England, just with less confidence.

But overall things look more promising on the whole this morning for a cold spell of sorts over the Christmas period for most of the country. Nothing nailed as of yet though, lots of runs and hurdles to get through.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hasn't the ECM been really poor recently, always playing catchup to the GFS? And UKMO doesn't really fill you with confidence whatever it shows of late.

I could be completely wrong, but my faith in the ECM has gone down a lot recently. And not just because it's not showing what we want to see in cold. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

4 minutes ago, Jan 87 said:

control is better. no point looking beyond xmas at this stage

 

 

1 minute ago, Jan 87 said:

something like pert 14 is what we need to see longer term. 

As long as charts like above are still in the mix, anything could still happen over the Christmas period as of yet. At least there's some hope, unlike most years.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

If we can pull at least a few days of festive feeling weather over the Xmas period, I think a lot of us would just settle for that.

Then we'll just see where we go into the new year, at least we're not still searching for our first cold spell unlike most winters. Although I appreciate the past week or so has been frustrating for people who haven't seen anything snow wise.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Temps tonight seem to be absolutely dropping like a stone, much lower than was forecast.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Like I said earlier, probably a good time to take a few days break from model watching. Who am I to talk still here

Enjoy the remaining few days of this cold spell, forget the models and come back next week to see if anything has changed for the better cold wise.

If not, at least we've already had a cold spell this winter. Now enjoy your Christmas!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Might be a time for a little break from the models, enjoy the last few days of this cold spell and then see how things look in the model world come the start of next week.