NewEra21
-
Posts
701 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by NewEra21
-
-
The past few runs the UKMO has been the worst for any longevity to this potential cold spell.
-
1
-
-
For that all important 5th - 10th ish period, in the south you've got to hope the op and control are leading the way.
Further north, more room to play with as you'd expect.
-
4
-
1
-
-
-
-
It really is a pretty meh gfs op run, we just never really manage to bring in the depth of cold needed. We need to see a cleaner draw of cold.
Pretty marginal to say the least for the most of the UK.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, danm said:
I’ve no doubts snow will fall, however if it’s in the form of showers the snow will quickly melt in any sunshine.
If people are hoping for thick, lying snow that stays on the ground then you’ll need to be under a convergence line of showers or we’d need a battleground/frontal snowfall with persistent cloud cover.
100%
I know it will have been said a thousand times, but it really is a shame this wasn't happening a month earlier. Just gives you that bit more wiggle room with a weaker sun etc.
-
1
-
-
-8 uppers in a slack flow with a strengthening March sun, that really isn't going to feel all that cold at all during the day.
We still need a bigger injection of cold imo.
-
2
-
-
Just now, Matt Jones said:
About 100 miles further north on the east coast it wasn't great, had a few cm's. Way it goes I suppose.
And that just shows why snow is always so hit and miss in the UK, never no guarantees wherever you are.
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
No they weren’t. 2018 non event in the north west
Depends on your location I suppose, but here in the east nothing will beat the 2018 BFTE.
-
1
-
-
Just for fun, by next Wednesday
-
5
-
-
8 minutes ago, Quantock said:
I’m five miles from the coast in Somerset (100m ASL) and had snow in December that lasted a week so if the charts are similar to then, that’s perfect!!
I feel like we really do need to temper expectations slightly. It's much easier to maintain snow on the ground in December.
If we do get snow cover next week, cloud cover will be key during daylight hours to preserve any snow.
-
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Exactly my point IDO missing the UK again...if people want to get excited about -6/8 uppers that's fine
This has been my point for days now, despite the odd op run we're just not seeing the depth of cold to make anything worthwhile.
We've had -8 uppers in the SE this weekend just gone, which resulted in 8c.
I'd love for this potential cold spell to happen, but personally I'm just not seeing the depth of cold that we'll need in March.
A few slushy deposits at best from current output.
-
1
-
-
It has to be said it's not a great set of ensembles once again. Although most members do dip around the 4th of March, so maybe something to build from there.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
ok on that basis somthing like -10 uppers would probably guarantee us snow?
In March you would definitely prefer-10 uppers to counter the growing strength of the sun etc.
It can obviously still snow without -10 uppers, but -10 and below will make it easier for snow to stick around.
-
1
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
so you think -8 uppers would give us temps of 5/6c?
I mean -8 uppers have given us 7-8c in the SE this weekend.
-
3
-
1
-
-
I'm a cold lover but personally I've lost any hope of us getting anything meaningful now. Over the past few days the writing has been on the wall with everything trending the wrong way. And despite the odd nice op run, the ensembles have never really looked very promising overall.
Time is ticking and it's not our friend now.
-
3
-
1
-
-
Just now, LRD said:
GFS 'leading the way'
New trend, will count down seamlessly to 00
-
1
-
-
No real shock with the 18z GFS, as the 12z was amongst the very coldest options available with lots of milder runs amongst the ens.
Until we see the ensembles absolutely diving, there's just far too many mild members to have any trust in cold runs currently.
-
1
-
-
The ECM isn't great to say the least, and despite how nice the GFS op looked. The ensembles don't really look anything as promising. Personally still not really seeing anything spectacular happening.
This weekend in the SE is currently colder than the majority of ensemble members in a few weeks time, which says everything really.
-
1
-
-
I feel it's been fairly obvious that the trend hasn't been our friend for some days now.
Greenland heights never really become as strong as initially shown a week or so ago, and the cold goes too far to the east of us while we're stuck in no mans land.
And any prospect of real cold keeps getting pushed back and back, which you just can't afford in March.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, winterof79 said:
Err you cherry picked one event.
Shropshire in May distorts your theory that cold needs to be in place and i wont bother to post charts where it snowed in March or April with no cold in situ as i feel you know it happens.
I'm talking about the exact event you posted in early March 2018. You showed the end of the event once the 850 had warmed up, I was merely showing why that event happened as we had such low 850s in the previous days.
Everyone knows we can see snowflakes and a brief covering with uppers nowhere near -10 in spring. But if we're looking for a cold spell with real bite in March, you're not getting it without an initial deep cold plunge.
-
1
-
-
28 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
2018 3rd March
early March, widely, 20-30cm, drifting snow; "Beast from the East"; 4th Mar Little Rissington, Gloucestershire 60cm lying snow
That's all well and good, but those events would never have happened without charts like this in days prior. You need that cold in place beforehand, as we can see here from the 1st of March 2018.
-
3
-
-
10 minutes ago, LRD said:
GFS 6z op and control have had a lovers tiff and gone their separate ways
We can probably disregard both for the time being
Even with some dramatic synoptics amongst ensemble members, there are still hardly any runs reaching -10 850s and below. Those 850s will hopefully stay away until Nov/Dec now
That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.
And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850s threshold.
I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018 BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.
Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.
-
3
-
1
-
-
Feels like we've had a carrot dangled in front of our noses, and no doubt we will eventually get a bite of that carrot throughout March at some point.
But the longer we go into March still chasing that carrot, it's just not going to be as juicy as it could have been.
Just my view from the past few days of output. Nothing technical or in depth, just how I see and feel about the output currently.
-
3
-
.jpg.4faa0e43304417de7356363b65280c7d.jpg)
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Definitely don't want to see too much of this amongst the ensembles of the GFS or ECM. Could go downhill quickly otherwise.