[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Unfortunately as soon as the Atlantic was shown to get involved a few days ago, it was curtains for this cold spell before it could even really get going.

Sure Atlantic involvement can deliver big snowfalls if everything falls perfect, but more often than not the mild just pushes through.

For a real cold spell, you need the Atlantic completely blocked off and out of the game. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

The northerly is looking more and more pathetic on each run, 18z Icon even worse with it.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Just now, Jacob Gamer said:

I wish the SE could get snow

Ideally the SE needs something from the East, far better than any northerly. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

That one ECM run a few days ago really did set the wheels in motion the wrong way, you just knew it would be the case.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM and only Scotland clinging onto any cold by friday. ECM is just horrible!

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I can’t see much in the way of snow showers running down in the northerly on runs this afternoon? Perhaps a few flakes here and there but not amounting to anything?  Only glimmer of hope is the GEM this afternoon 

Yep, and that's my point. Initially the northerly was shown as being very convective with features running down the country. But that's been shortened and downgraded over the past few days, the flow gets cut off far too quickly now for anything to really get going.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

7 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The last 12 months have been slack meteorologicaly, so it should come as no surprise that anything dynamic has been watered down.

I just feel a lot of people have been  distracted by the bigger carrot with the so called chance of bigger snow events from the Atlantic.

The initial northerly was key to getting showers and features running down the country and giving lots of snow opportunities before even needing to look to the Atlantic. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Been saying it for days now but the initial northerly that was shown a few days ago was a very convective one with showers and features coming down the UK all over the place.

That has gradually been shortened and downgraded over the past few days, as we just don't maintain the flow long enough anymore before it goes all slack.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

31 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Agree, as of my original post...it doesnt look now like anything abnormal for early March..may swing back tho, but the trend is in the opposite direction.

100%

This is for London, the mean next week barely drops to -5 now. Where just a day or so ago we were looking closer to -10

I know some will say 850 temps aren't everything, and fair enough because they aren't. But those ensembles are a huge step in the wrong direction, the real cold just never really gets south now.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I honestly don't get the current excitement for this upcoming cold spell, as in my view it's just downgrading with each run for next week.

Initially we were looking at a true northerly, clearing the south coast and reaching well into France with convention galore by Tuesday/Wednesday. Now the northerly barely reaches the south coast before being pushed back north by the milder Atlantic.

Hills in North and Scotland will obviously do fine, feel like a lot of others are going to be very disappointed.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

For the south, next week is beginning to look more and more like a wet fart with each run.

Further north looks promising, Scotland in particular look set for a prolonged cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

-8 ain’t enough at this time of the year to produce anything worthy 

The real deep cold is just to the north of Scotland, shame we couldn't keep the northerly going long enough to tap into that.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Rather meh ECM in terms of snow, convective showers window is very short and the low doesn't really deliver. So we lose out both ways in snow terms.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Feels like the opportunity for any convection or features coming down in the northerly flow is getting shorter and shorter, as we just don't maintain the flow long enough in recent runs.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Too much Atlantic influence to make this cold spell a true cold spell, was genuinely hoping for something better due to the SSWs that we've had.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Massive improvement on mogreps even for london!!!ecm is once again at top end day 6 and 7!!!gona be some happy chappys this evening hopefully!!!!gona get a friday night treat from ecm!!

We kinda need mogreps to be leading the way here, which you'd hope they would be.

Just far too much mild scatter amongst the gfs and ECM ens to be confident with them. Mogreps looks so much better with a tighter clustering of cold.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Much stronger flow on the 18z which is good to see, showers should be piling in 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, irish1 said:

ECM for Southeast Ireland certainly the mildest outcome.

Good to see the ECM looks to have gone off on one, still plenty of colder runs in there.

Hopefully just a blip and not a trend, slightly more tense gfs 18z coming up

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I think we've all been scarred far too many times to just discount this ECM run, definitely don't want to see it repeated on the 00z run or the UKMO or gfs. As we know how quickly things can go wrong once we hit that road.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just one run, but this is the UK and just goes to show we can never celebrate until the snow is falling outside of our windows.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

Have to say it has nothing on 2018 or even march 2013

Some places will do very well next week, no doubt about that.

But we just haven't been able to draw the depth of cold to take marginality out of the question further south and make it work for everyone. But then I guess that very rarely happens in the UK, unfortunately.

Having said that, the whole UK is well and truly in the game next week. Can't grumble at that.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Much prefer the UKMO compared to the gfs on this run.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

9 minutes ago, Stav said:

Yes, it could be very disappointing after all the expectation, We need those surface temps down a couple of degrees by day and night.

I've mentioned before, but last weekend uppers were around -8 in the SE and daytime temps easily reached between 7c to 8c.

For the best outcome next week, we need to see as little of the sun as possible and hope for organised bands of snow with limited sun during the day to suppress temperatures.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Johnp said:

I remember the days when people wouldn’t give the time of day to the UKMO day 6 chart - and now we’re having kittens over what it shows at day 7.

The old adage always applies - get the cold in first and then see what happens. 

To be fair the UKMO was solid as a rock in the lead up to this upcoming spell, whatever it holds.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Willsy said:

some very interesting output from the models the last few days. i really hope we don’t get led up the garden path again tho as has happened more than enough this winter. praying we can get these tasty charts within t24 

If nothing comes of next week, the chase will be over for me. Just can't get excited from the middle of March onwards. So here's hoping next week gives us all cold and snow fix!