[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Let’s just hope we can get a meaningful cold spell in the heart of winter for a change this year, late December - mid January.

This period has been horrible in terms of seeing any meaningful cold for a long time now.

Come February things always need to be that bit more extreme as the days begin to lengthen.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

This really does remind me of last December, a very promising start with plenty of very cold frosty weather with snow for a lucky few.

Then when it broke down we all thought the Atlantic wouldn’t be in control for long, but it took an age for the next real cold chase that ended in a whimper in March.

Once the Atlantic gets in, it can take an age to get back to something cold for the UK even without a strong PV as we’re seeing now. Background signals look somewhat promising, but we’ve all fallen into that trap before chasing the never ending carrot

Let’s just hope this winter is a little different!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

You can’t help but feel that this has been a huge missed opportunity for the UK, especially with the cold available in Europe currently.

These patterns don’t come along very often, so to see this spell come to nothing really is a bit disappointing.

But at least it’s cold and we get to see a few sunny days and frosty nights, then onto the next chase.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I think we’re seeing why it’s so vital to get that low to stay as far south as possible on Thursday now, it brings in deeper cold and then let’s see where we go from next weekend onwards.

I know some were hoping for snow from it, and I understand that as we’re all so snow starved in this country. But I feel that would have been sacrificing any potential longevity of this spell.

Things can still go very wrong of course, but this low going south and missing the UK gives us the best chance going forward imo.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while.

So imo the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That about as wintery as it gets late this week on the ECM, very disappointing!! 

I’ll take it over more rain

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There is no model showing milder air coming in after the low on Thursday regardless of what happens with the low.

The further south the better it is for cold though, and it sets the scene for next weekend onwards 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

I’d rather sacrifice the possible snow of Thursday and see these lows much further south, so we stay on the much colder side.

We saw last December that once the Atlantic gets in, it’s not always an easy route back to anything cold.

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

18 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Just watched the week ahead forecast on BBC and they were very bullish about any snow only being on the 'highest ground in the north' (not exactly sure whats meant by that), with daytime temps around 4-6c for most after tomorrow. Whilst it wasn't an in depth forecast I did expect them to mention Thursday's LP, the track of which could well deliver a decent amount of snow away from the highest ground in the north, at least according to several of the models.  Poor forecast or access to more in-depth info? Time I guess will tell.

In terms of temps, the BBC are always well off the mark. Usually come the day it’s at least a few degrees colder, they always overplay the temps.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

The danger with a relaxation phase is that it tends to last for 3 months.

Pretty much like we saw last year, December started so promising and then it was March before the next real cold we were chasing.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

That’s why it’s always vital in the UK to get the real cold in and the Atlantic completely shut off before getting excited, we’ve seen so many potential cold spells go this way.

Still time for things to change though of course!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

The Atlantic getting involved is never good news for proper good UK cold spells. Sure once the cold is embedded, it gives the chance of good snowfalls.

But more often than not it ends the fun and games before they ever get truly started.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Start of next week just looks wet and unsettled once more from tonight’s GFS 12z, was hoping for some dry frosty weather tbh.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Love this forum but also hate it at the same time, what a mess it is in here this morning.

Models can predict whatever they want, but at the end of the day there’s only ever one winner. And that’s the weather, as it does whatever it wants and fools us constantly!

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

It’s still not a bad set of ensembles from the 06z, despite how fickle they can be. The OP amongst the mildest members throughout the period of interest.

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Starting to look more interesting for a weeks time, but how often have we seen charts like this gradually slip eastwards leaving us in no man’s land.

Signs of promise, but we need to keep our feet on the ground!

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

1 minute ago, seb said:

No one is claiming the "cold plunge" isn't there. The result is however nothing cold for the majority of the country. It'll be cooler and a bit more seasonal but the details, even as close as Saturday, are not clear at this point. Anything from temps never dropping below October average to 3-4 days of daytime highs around 10 degrees is on the cards. But above all, it's nothing extraordinary as some seem to want to portray it. 

Of course it isn’t going to be incredibly cold, it’s still early October. But I’d say many places will be below average this weekend, which is pretty significant in itself from what we’ve seen so far this month.

Seasonal with the potential of frosts is something we rarely see in October of late, so that excites me and I’m sure it does others too.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

I think it’s fair to say this screams of uncertainty after the initial warm up!m

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Lovely end to the GFS 12z, if you like it cold. Won’t look anything like that next run, but that’s what gets me excited as we head deeper into autumn and into winter.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Pretty much tells you everything you need to know 

[Summer 2023 chat]

Not posted for months, as summer doesn’t really interest me in terms of charts. But the current rut is why the UK is one of the most frustrating places to live for any weather enthusiast. Be that summer or winter!

There’s always heat or cold within touching distance, but more often than not we’ll just continue seeing the same old bland weather all year round, as it just never makes it to these shores.

Not that I’d want the heat currently in Europe, as it would frankly be unbearable. But I really do feel the frustrations of those looking for it, as we just eat months away with nothingness. And that’s the case for summer and winter.

Anyway only a few months until the cold chase begins, so I say bring it on!

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

6 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

To the coldies and winter lovers. You are curently having a 6 and a half month winter. Surely you can't be all that fed up ? 

That would be fair, if we actually experienced proper winter weather. 

Like I said a few posts above, all the seasons are pretty much alike. We don't really experience true seasons. All just pretty bog standard nothingness all year round.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I know it's our climate and things will never be how we want them. But this is the frustration with the UK weather and seasons.

We never really experience what you'd want from each season, it's pretty much just the same old thing all year round. Just a touch milder and a touch cooler. With the odd hot or cold spell.

All just very meh!

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Been saying it for days, but this whole so called cold spell was going the way of a wet fart for the south.

The real cold never even really reaches the south coast, where initially it was shown as sweeping down into France. Hence the initial northerly was looking strong and full of convection throughout the UK, but was downgraded run by run.

For what could have been, this is a sorry excuse of a cold spell. But Scotland will do well, but is that really news worthy?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

How is it curtains exactly.It is turning much colder .It is going to snow in places.Their will be severe frosts.The end of the next week was always trending less cold,but if you think the models have nailed the pattern 7 days ahead then you obviously haven;t been looking at weather charts very long.

I've been looking at weather charts long enough to know when things are going wrong, unlike some in here who are throwing out BOOMS and remarks of this could rival the most severe March cold spells of all time.

I just feel this thread needs a dose of realism sometimes.