East Herts Snow

GFS starting to become more consistent with showing a easterly in medium term. At +114 hours the low begins to track S/SE across France bringing the possibility of snow across many parts as the cold air digs in (which is closer to the UK on this run). Excellent run so far if you are looking for snow in the medium term. Oops, well it was looking good at the start, LOL.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the GFS 12z run. Upper temps are higher, with much more energy and precipitation throughout, but we could just be on the right side of marginal for snow and a lot of it.

Snow is one of the main reasons why a lot of people contribute to these forums in the winter and in the medium term this run brings good snow potential for many Western and Northern areas between +162 and +186 hours. Not such a good run in the longer term as good old GFS reverts back to its usual default zonal pattern, but does produce several 'battleground situations' between rain and snow. However it regularly does this in its low resolution output, so I only view them to try to spot a new trend.

Great run for cold weather coming up here, nicely shaped Scandinavian High at +120 advecting colder air into the UK.

I must admit these charts really remind of the early 1980's cold spells, which lasted for several weeks. All of the rivers in North London just froze solid and stayed frozen for over a month. Winters do seem to be getting colder and snowier since 2001/2002.

Live right on the outskirts (near to the ford, but further up the hill going towards Layston Church and why I have a slightly higher elevation).

A couple of pictures from last years snow (5th February 2012), hope we get some more in a few weeks time The snow was deeper in 2010, but the deepest snowfall I've seen was 1991 in North London where over a foot of snow fell on that famous day!

Lol, Perfect Storm, it even made the newspapers (well local Hertfordshire newspaper) and put Buntingford on the map (well it did in East Hertfordshire....). Funny thing is we had heavier snowfall a couple of years previous, I measured over 20cm (think it was back in either 2009 or 2010). Well the top of my house is 10 metres higher (its a tall house).....

Lol, you know that Buntingford was in the news as having the deepest snowfall on 5th February 2012. "At 0900 on the 5th a snow depth of 16 cm was measured at Malham Tarn (North Yorkshire) and Buntingford (Hertfordshire)" http://www.metoffice...2/february.html

You gotta love the GFS, it then finishes with the polar vortex over the British Isles and a massive blizzard at +384 hours! It seems to always want to default to an over the top raging zonal pattern in the deepest low resolution Fantasy Island (FI).

ECM at +216, one of the best charts I have seen for cold weather ;-) http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0 Just a pity it is nine days into the future!

When all the conditions are right, Cornwall is in one of the jackpot zones for the heaviest snow the UK can receive. From +144 onwards, there is a much stronger High over Greenland and block holding, better angle for a slider English Channel low..... The potential on this run for snow is huge.

Had around 20cm of snow in Buntingford, East Hertfordshire.

Agreed mate, we are well over 5 inches now and 1 foot drifts. Actually this is much better than I thought it would be! I think NW Essex, North Hertfordshire seem to be the highest accumulations tonight. This probably has a lot to do with altitude, as our areas are higher than most places in the South East.

Snowking, I am about 10 miles West of you and already have an 1 inch dry of powdery snow. I think being located on the East Anglian Heights, the extra altitude is helping to intensify the snowfall.

First snow fall here in Buntingford, East Herts (about 20 miles North of London).

Funny thing is, it looks like you could be in the best sweet spot for snowfall!

Would agree normally, unless this snow fell quickly, as was the case back in 1996. During a football match between Notts Forest and Spurs a squall line pushed South resulting in 3 to 4 inches falling in about an hour and the game had to be called off. I was living in Enfield, North London at the time and remember blizzard like conditions for about an hour. Also remember the M11 incident back in 2002 when about 5 to 6 inches fell in a couple of hours near Harlow & Stansted. Motorists were stuck overnight and this was just 10 miles North of London! If you are not used to driving in snow it can be quite tricky.

Love the articles reporting from different parts of the country. Cambridge 19 Jan 1881: "The streets and roads are almost impassable, the snow being several feet deep". Amazing how life still continued almost as normal, if that happened nowadays the country will just be at a standstill and a national disaster would be declared.

Well the GFS 6z run is showing small differences with the block slightly further West. However small changes can bring big differences, with the Atlantic lows sliding further SE by +120 and colder uppers across more of the UK. Greenland High looks better as well. I personally want it to warm up, but for cold lovers, this run looks like being an upgrade. Edit: By +144 hours this run is an upgrade for cold, could be interesting for the Southern most counties (especially along the South coast), with the possibility of a English channel low.

Will snow, but how much in Herts? I noticed that the BBC showed the heaviest snow running Southwest wards, but the GFS charts showing heavier snow more Northwards. Will this leave a more dryer sector through the middle? I think its down to nowcasting as TEITS has indicated already and checking the radar to where the main PPN is moving to.

The wind gusts of the North East coast of Norfolk are showing as 29mph and predicted to be over 32 mph. To be fair if you are outside and its strong winds with moderate snow, it would seem a blizzard, but maybe technically speaking its not a blizzard. Anyway for those that want the snow (I actually don't want it to snow), enjoy what is coming .

XCWeather site is showing winds of 30 MPH and higher off the East coast with moderate snowfall. This would constitute possible blizzard conditions. As a result I would attend to agree with the posters from the East coast of Suffolk (Ipswich area).

To be fair predicting snow streamers is usually down to micro weather forecasting in a very small area. You would rarely get this on the national weather forecast, or even the local weather forecast (which I find are sometimes worse than the national forecast!). These forecasts tend to just deal with a 'broad overview' of what the weather will do for large areas (especially for metropolitan areas). You will still find smaller areas receiving a more severe version of the broad forecast, even if they predict "accumulations up to 15cm" some smaller areas will receive higher amounts. You will only ever get detailed local micro weather forecasting on sites like this and long may it continue!

I've noticed that the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) has increased in the last half an hour of the NE coast of Norfolk allowing more showers to develope. Something that TEITS & TWS have highlighted.