East Herts Snow

ECM at +96 and +120 hours are absolutely stunning runs. Amazing Easterly at +120..... +144 justs continues the cold.... retrogression?

Secretly I bet you would TEITS.......!

The GFS seems to receive a lot of critism, but yesterday's GFS 6z run predicted tomorrows snow event for the same areas (South West and Southern Central England). If tomorrows snow event transpires in these areas, then it deserves some respect.

Surprised at the downbeat comments this morning and thought the charts would look horrendous........ After viewing the ECM & GFS charts all I can see is the cold has if anything been prolonged. The Atlantic lows just keep undercutting the scandi/UK high, reloading the cold and snow potential all the way out to +240 and beyond. GFS has the cold extending thoughout its whole run. Any one of these lows with the right track would produce heavy snowfall for many areas. Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.....this is how the great winters of old would have looked. ^^Just seen John's post above and agree totally^^

Thanks for the link. Wow....wasn't expecting that, could be very interesting by the end of week for many areas.

In the medium to long term the High is situated on top of the UK, bringing with it dry cold weather and no sign of the continental low. However as you say the GFS introduces another different run in FI.

Indeed this is a cracking run for Southern most counties for snow potential if this run was to varify. Nice Channel low developing with plenty of ppn tracking along the Southern most counties. 2m temperatures look okay as well. NB - This is not ramping by me, as I don't live anywhere near these areas and simply explaining what the GFS 6z run is showing at just 3 days out. Apologies for the back to front order of the attached images (I can't seem to edit them to the correct order).

Your quite right LomondSnowstorm, Scotland keeps getting looked over. Probably down to the fact that us 'Southern Softies' presume that the folk in Scotland are used to cold weather! Just shows how much uncertainty there is at the moment, due to the unusual synoptics associated with the very rare weather event we maybe facing in the next few weeks.

Very true Steve and at the very least the country should be alerted to the 'low/medium possibility' of a sustained very cold period is very near. People should at least be prepared for the negative impact that severe weather can bring. This is surely the whole point of having medium to long term weather charts that show possible outcomes on a sliding probability scale! This cold spell may turn out to be very expensive for the Government in cold winter payments......

This is the chart sert-up I was referring to from 7/8th February 1991 that produced the best snowfall I've ever seen and also the best weather forecast I've ever seen....! Anyway a long way into FI I know, but this is a possible outcome that the charts are showing at present.

Must admit I'm surprised there is no ramping for +192 hours onwards. The Denmark low slips SW and produces a heavy snowfall set-up for most areas. This is really starting to remind me of the 7/8th February 1991 setup, where a low tracked Westwards along the English Channel and produced heavy snowfall for many areas. However this is in the lower resolution run and purely FI, but could this be a more likely outcome?

In the short term is looks a better run for Western areas, with PPN pushing down through Wales and Western England between +78 & +96 hours. This run is slightly different, in that a second low forms and slides down Western areas and into NW France by +96 hours.

The control is one of the warmest runs mid range, but becomes a very cold outlier towards the end, unless it is picking up on an even colder evolution trend? That could be record breaking cold, but must be a cold outlier. NB - Off topic, but look how cold North America is going to be this week, even in central Florida night time lows look to be -3 by mid week.

London GFS Ensembles 850 Hpa temps mean is even lower and is now touching -12.

Possible Thames/North Sea snow streamer developing between +60 and +66 hours. Nb - Sorry Steve Murr, just noticed you had already pointed out that PPN has pepped up at +66 hours!

LOL, a low develops North of Scotland at +168 hours and slides South bringing heavy snow across most parts. Although this is mainly in the low resolution part of the run. Another superb run, hopefully ECM is a better run later.

Must admit yamkin, there is much more PPN on this run, looks like a decent snow chance for a lot of the country on Tuesday as well. Will the 0h ECM run come back on board later?

Just had a 5 minute snow shower in Buntingford.

Hope TEITS is looking at the 6z run.... GFS developes a bitterly cold Easterly by +216, straight from the Urals! Okay I know this is not strictly true, but it originates from near The Urals vicinity.

On planet Earth, maybe just a 0.01% variability, for the UK about 20%!

LOL, the monster easterly appears between +252 and +264! Massive Scandi High... Shame its deepest FI, oh well maybe a trend to watch for.

For the last week very snowy open fields, but all melted now! Incidently Bristol could be in the prime spot for decent heavy snow next Tuesday, I think you deserve it!

I posted this earlier after the 6z run, as it is frustrating to see some of the downbeat posts tonight. I think nowadays we are spoilt for choice with the amount of weather charts that we can now access on a whim. I recall the days when I would be constantly refreshing the teletext weather page on TV! Now I can access up to date pressure, dew point, ground temperature, air thickness levels, upper stratosphere charts at will. However as the atmosphere is so chaotic, charts that are showing events 96 hours out tend to not happen, or the event turns out to be a watered down version (as is possibly happening for next week). We were originally going to receive a couple of blizzard type events across a large area, but this now appears to be a watered down one snow event for a smaller area. This is not having a pop at the various meteorological organisations and their computer programmed outputs, what they are trying to calculate accurately are probably the most complicated mathmatical/phyics formulas known to man! The more into the future the projections are, the lot less accurate they will be, i.e a volcano erupting in Indonesia can totally change the worlds weather patterns almost instantly. I tend to now only concentrate on charts up to a maximum of 5 days (apart from snow forecasts which I only look up to 24 hours), anything after 5 days I use as a rough guide only. Also look out for regular postings from the more senior technical posters (I refer to them as the Old School mob), AKA John Holmes, Glacier Point, Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Nick F, Kold Weather, The Eye in the Sky, Blast from the Past, Thundery Wintry Showers). They mix their technical skills with good old previous experience. I sometimes find the experience helps more with these cold set-ups than possibly deciphering the many technical charts(although I have learnt so much from the above posters that I can now form my own basic weather forecasts for IMBY). NB - Apologies if I have left anyone out from my Old School list of posters! Remember past memorable cold spells tended to appear with very short notice.

Secretly I think a lot of people would agree with you. I think nowadays we are spoilt for choice with the amount of weather charts that we can now access on a whim. I recall the days when I would be constantly refreshing the teletext weather page on TV! Now I can access up to date pressure, dew point, ground temperature, air thickness levels, upper stratosphere charts at will. However as the atmosphere is so chaotic, charts that are showing events 96 hours out tend to not happen, or the event turns out to be a watered down version (as is happening for next week). We were originally going to receive a couple of blizzard type events across a large area, but this now appears to be a watered down one snow event for a smaller area. This is not having a pop at the various meteorological organisations and their computer programmed outputs, what they are trying to calculate accurately are probably the most complicated mathmatical/phyics formulas known to man! The more into the future the projections are, the lot less accurate they will be, i.e a volcano erupting in Indonesia can totally change the worlds weather patterns almost instantly. I tend to now only concentrate on charts up to a maximum of 5 days (apart from snow forecasts which I only look up to 24 hours), anything after 5 days I use as a rough guide only. Also look out for regular postings from the more senior technical posters (I refer to them as the Old School mob), AKA John Holmes, Glacier Point, Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Kold Weather, The Eye in the Sky, Blast from the Past). They mix their technical skills with good old previous experience. I sometimes find the experience helps more with these cold set-ups than possibly deciphering the many technical charts(although I have learnt so much from the above posters that I can now form my own basic weather forecasts for IMBY). NB - Apologies if I have left anyone out from my Old School list of posters!

I'm surprised with the downbeat comments this morning... The coldest part of winter is still a month away. The GFS charts are showing an initial snow event (for the Southwest in particular) and then a more settled, but colder setup. A lot of the winters I recall in the 1980's would begin with a bang, a lot of snow would fall and then it would quieten down. However snow showers would affect Eastern counties (which is projected to happen on this run between +114 and +150 hours) Eventually fronts from the West/SouthWest would begin to try to push in, as is projected to happen at +192 hours, but to begin with the cold dense air tends to push these away, leading to repeated battle grounds between Mild and cold air. For the rest of the country, the real fun and games begin at +204, when a low approaches from SW and hits the entrenched cold air. However this is so far into FI (Fantasy Island), but just something to be aware of.