[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

5 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

Met4Cast posted it on X

That’s just one ensemble member I think…

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

I think even the most optimistic posters in the MOD forum have said a relaxation in blocking is probable in late Jan…

I don’t think the updated are bad at all, they’re only hedging their bets on some milder incursions into the south - none of the typical “later in the period we see a return to milder conditions”

it’s all “average” at worst

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

METO Long range text does now include “cold easterly” for next week - good to see this level of agreement

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Light snow in Lewisham definitely not heavy enough to settle

 

impressive to see consecutive days of falling snow this early in the season, last time would have been 2010 (I feel like that was potentially more impressive…)

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Light snow Bromley 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Much bigger flakes again, doing their best to settle

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Light snow in Lee just now

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Radar doesn’t seem to be picking up the snow I still have in Bromley - very fine but still snow

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Not really seeing where this move south is going to come from? Surely the system itself is still moving north but I am possibly just reading wrong… Is the wind direction expected to be ENE?

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Definitely have 2 inches now in Bromley - still snowing but it’s light

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Nice steady snow in Bromley - covered the roads over the last 20 mins

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

7 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

METO confidence for Sun/Monday's event is high

Their confidence is very low in fact , it’s just if it happens it will be disruptive

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Yellow MetO warning for that system on Sunday…

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just now, Downburst said:

How can we go from this

To this

In 24 hours?

 

I expect FI is well and truly about 180 to 190 hrs on the GFS 12Z

These are runs from different days, the top pic is yesterdays…

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Would you believe it, with all these forecasts, the Mauna Loa (world’s biggest active volcano) has just decided to erupt…

If it turns into a major event, how might that in Hawaii affect the atmosphere? Any clues?

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

It’s on the mild side

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

UKV temp Mon/The hot hot hot..

 

43 again… surely not…

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO day 7

  

Again a race in terms of getting to approaching the record maxima before cloud and thunderstorms develop. The 20c isotherm basically covers the whole of the U.K. Monday night.

That’s a ridiculous chart

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Southeastern trains looking to stop all services now… ABSOLUTE FLOP! WHY IS MY HOUSE STILL STANDING?!?

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Well, I guess it’s look to the stratosphere time. That was a really good shot at blocking with strong signals, but you’d have no idea looking at the charts. Surprising to see with all the drivers in our favour. I have a bit of an all or nothing feeling about this winter, when will we get these drivers again in such a combination? Anyway winter in the UK pretty much begins in January so let’s see…

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

26 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

JMA 18z - switch to ecm. Night all.

Ah, was fearing that

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Very interesting end to the ECM, maybe our fail this time is just one of those teasers we need to get to a main event… However I fear the MJO falling away might put a stop to that

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

There has to be some sinister motive to these models… I was all ready to take a few days off here expecting a 100% flip to mild for the next week. Yet here I am pinning my hopes on the GEM… My hunch is for the GFS solution to be right but I’ll keep hoping

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Can’t believe I’m saying this but I think ICON may have won this spell… consistently not backed it recently 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

The mood is soooo despondent, and it seems like it’s based off this 18z. Let’s see where we are in the morning. This low going into France isn’t all bad, and especially if you’re midlands southwards I’d still be hopeful. We’re at the point where hi-res models will play around with ideas until the time, we’re only at the end of Tuesday so a long way to go…