Eagle Eye

Convective Outlook ️ Cloud cover will limit any showers/storm development over Thursday although if cloud cover does break the odd storm could be expected. A lot of uncertainty on when this cloud does break therefore only a LOW has been issued.

A bit of stuff off my camera from recently. P1220260.mp4 P1220431.mp4 P1220762.mp4 P1230163.mp4 P1240001.mp4

Convective Outlook Wednesday A warm front will track E alongside pockets of instability, bringing the risk of the odd isolated lightning strike. Most lightning activity will stay offshore of W Ireland & W Scotland, although the odd strike/rumble could be seen behind the front.

Convective Outlook Tuesday Areas of 500+ J/KG of SBCAPE allow for a few low end slight risks with pulse storms forming in areas of weak DLS. Upscaling appears unlikely and generally thundery showers appears to be the main mode though a few clusters could form along stronger forced areas. A few storms could reach above 20,000 feet increasing their lightning potential with their increased ECAPE. Buoyancy is rather weak though so air parcels will have to stay parallel to the flow for a while to reach that potential height. So generally sparodic lightning is most likely. Strong LLLR's may aid some small hail but given weak buoyancy and small updraft widths, hail would be very small if it does form. Along with the weak MLCAPE. Late morning and early afternoon is when the SW slight risk comes into play with a few sparodic showers and storms along the coastal areas along a falling moisture tongue. Then the risk shifts further east for the afternoon (mid-day onwards to early evening). The SE has SE'ly moving storms sparodically throughout the afternoon and evening whereas the NE has slightly more clustering of storms at their strongest between around 4 and 7 with stronger MLCIN in the area.

Tomorrow is going to be a Level 3, I don't think I have a doubt about it. So let's go into depth; Large SBCAPE with moderate amounts of SBCIN should allow for isolated Supercells to form along northern Italy, south-central France and then the northern Italy storms transfer and upscale across through Austria, Slovenia and Croatia and right into the Balkans. Despite the vast (2,000+ J/KG) amounts of SBCAPE, 3CAPE looks to be mainly kept low in most areas, a few areas may reach up to 300 J/KG but the general risk area tends to stay <50 J/KG. Strong DLS combines with that initially trapped instability to help provide for tall and vigorous convection late afternoon with the DLS suggesting Supercellular formation is highly likely. Once a Supercell forms, it'll increase it's ECAPE naturally and so will become more likely to produce severe threats, especially large to very large hail and a strong tornado or two. With large amounts of below 0 CAPE and a C shaped hodograph when you include the storm-relative inflow, large to very large hail appears likely. Potentially 2.5+ inch hail with some of the Supercells. With very steep EL's, some 45,000 feet tall storms may form. That shows you the potentially immense power that these storms could potentially have. Those types of storm heights are very rare. A hot PBL with a dry mid-level area will contribute to some near and potentially above 1,000 J/KG of DCAPE, which will contribute to the downwards momentum and surface wind response to the energy for significant wind gusts to occur. Potentially 100+ km/h wind gusts in areas and with rough terrain, 130+ km/h wind gusts could occur in areas. Likely, the strong lift will provide for the strong downwards response of the air parcel with steepening LLLR's in the stronger buoyant areas. This also helps provide for the hail response from the strong downdraft winds and large updraft width. The EHI is off the charts in areas with large streamwise vorticity in areas as well which could lead to a situation where a tornado outbreak occurs but it depends because some models show this to be rather weak and some suggest that there is a risk for strong tornado's. However, even if the potential strong tornado risk isn't realised which given the fairly lifted LCL and the potential for storms to form in weaker 3CAPE, the hail and wind gusts risk still look to be a very big event if they end up on their own. The strong tornado risk is best forecast when combining vorticity and 3CAPE if you're unsure. That is forecasted to combine by most models over the 'hinge' between Italy-Slovenia and Croatia but that could easily change closer to time. Here's the ESSL for hail

Convective Outlook Monday CAPE builds slightly ahead of a decaying southwards moving occluded front. This CAPE especially looks to build along the south coast, perhaps locally in excess of 1,000 J/KG of SBCAPE. This occurs along a Theta-E plume with lots of moisture and energy. Along with fairly good amounts of SB lift and moderate amounts of shearing as it gets towards late morning and early afternoon. The occluded front moves through, very weak in the early afternoon so hampers most activity beyond mid-day. A few storms could get beyond 20,000 feet and with the amount of energy avaliable, fairly frequent lightning may occur for a time. However, that assumes a good amount of ECAPE and DLS to reach that height. These are forced along a small PV lobe, as generally most of these types of slight risk setups are. That generally means widespread showers and a few storms form so cloudcapes could be quite good.

I was outside playing football in it in my back garden, perfect weather to play football in.

I've just remembered I have a friend in Bosnia who appears to be the local storm destroyer. Notice the split area in Bosnia, I think he lives in there. Look how many Level 3 risks there have been this year; 9 level 3 risks, look how many there have been around the Italy across to Croatia general area.

Nothing currently to me suggests we're getting out of this pattern anytime soon. Heat buildup is unlikely throughout the July period. However, eventually that'll be released slowly and so will the handbrake on summer. Once the NAO settles down. The activeness of the Greenland anomalies is not good for us in Summer. It looks to flip the other way into the future but I get the feeling that if the Pacific WWB's settle down then so will summer. August seems to be our best chance of recovery. For now, the next week or two continues to look grim with our resident low pressure settling in. However, if the NAO settles down into August, then I don't think this will last for the rest of Summer. Early Autumn can still bring good heat as well.

Incredible scenes here considering I was told that there's no chance of thunder when I asked if I needed to do a discussion for today on our mini forecast group chat, yesterday. I tend not to look at the models unless I'm told there's a risk then I'll work out where it is, which can occasionally be detrimental. Looks quite thundery for what just brought torrential rain. YouCut_20230720_123808871.mp4

If people disagree with your post, reacting disagree with it won't actually make anyone understand why they disagree with your post. i also think it'll be used in a more," I don't like what you're telling me even if it's true" reaction.

Nearly every one of your reactions to mine are thanks rather than likes, I'm honoured.

Convective Outlook Widespread 75+ J/KG of 3CAPE with locally 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE with a mainly surface trapped energy source should allow for sharp showers to form along a mainly surface-PBL PV lobe. Localised QG forcing should allow for increased ECAPE in areas and sharper showers modified by terrain. However, the flat lands of the risk area generally means this will be very minimal around hilly areas. The occluded front may act to help localised QG forcing areas from East Anglia up to areas just north of Sunderland area, given current occluded front track forecasts. A fairly big depth of the warmth of the environmental temperature means that most energy stops fairly low down in the atmosphere, weakening total CAPE and lightning potential. Though QG forcing and the shearing may aid storm height development, it has to make up quite a lot of room to be above 20,000 feet which at this time of year, is a benchmark I tend to set for any good lightning events. Buoyancy loses strength rather quickly with weak lift especially post PBL, again weakening vigorousness of convection. So lightning potential is weakened further despite the initial mentioned 3CAPE. Buoyancy is typically a good measure of hail risk when combined with LLLR's. I'd say some small localised hail is plausible but not much beyond about 1cm. Fairly large PBL moisture is typically a good sign I find of the strength of rainfall and given the strength of 3CAPE, some heavy rainfall appears likely but lightning is likely to be sporadic at best. This, along the back edge of a moisture tongue which is moving south throughout the day but showers are not necessarily transferring south with it. Shower development will generally be sporadic along the moisture tongue, more associated with localised features and typical sea breezes than the moisture itself, so the theoretical strongest storm potential for tomorrow is unlikely to be maximised.

Convective Outlook 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE will allow for some post-frontal storms to form. In an area of moderate DLS, the back edge of an occluded front and behind it, a few storms could form. Rather weak lift should limit storm strength and hail strength as well. So generally storms and hail shod be rather weak. However, some hefty showers given the strong Theta-E tongue, appears possible. Most likely, this will occur along a PV lobe and so clustering up appears likely. This given the PV and SBCAPE maxima.

Approaching heavy shower which is now over me and producing torrential rain. YouCut_20230717_114755885.mp4

Had to make a quick and by no means up to scratch map for todays risk. Should be back to normal for the next risk.

Sorry, I cant do the forecast for today.

Playing at my local pub and hats were flying everywhere today.

Convective Outlook Locally, 3CAPE in excess of 100 J/KG could allow for a few moderately active storms to form, especially in areas of strong forcing. This is combined with fairly weak buoyancy in most areas but locally enough ascent for some locally strong storms to form. The pre-event moisture transportation is still mostly there in a way and so over saturation shouldn't be an issue in most areas (quick note just for Netweather, this is given that the moisture at different levels is pretty well distributed). Some areas in the south west could be over saturated but mostly, it doesn't seem to be much of an issue for risk areas. Not a major event by any means but could be some small hail in places. This is given very strong LLLR's (low-level lapse-rates) really. Which suggests a fairly low 0°C line mainly but not much CAPE to use it up. A mid-level warm nose may also disrupt the storm progression. Hence its quite a low end event in general.

Thought it would though a bit later than I expected. Quite proud of myself for spotting the possibility of the specific forcing mode a day before it happened. " Some elevated storms to the north of initial surface based storms along a Theta-W plume with some post APBL WAA. A lifting occluded front rises with the Theta-W along a QG plane, forcing stronger convective forcing in a line along the PV lobe with widespread 700+ J/KG of MLCAPE and locally sourced 1000+ J/KG of MLCAPE could provide for some high LCL embedded storms." . I guess, given they're elevated, I should've expected later initiation (what is it with elevated storms and later initiation?).

Thanks. I find it rather calming from the anxieties of life, to try and explain the future and try and get my discussions as accurate as possible. It's a group of us who decide the map but I add the discussion flavour because I think it's the best way to learn for me.

I don't make the maps just do the discussion so couldn't really tell you loads but the "SVR - Black outline" is basically saying that a severe weather risk would have a black outline. Don't know why it's surrounded by the white outline though. The severe-low risk, that is a severe risk because of the wind gusts but a low risk of lightning. They can both exist at the same time because technically they're sort of separate. What I mean by that is that the severe risk is not due to the storms happening but is what would happen anyway because of where the low pressure is and the low risk that area is in, is because it's at a low but not below 5% risk of lightning (mainly due to uncertainty). I don't really decide the exact severe risk criteria, the exact strength of strong wind gusts seems to change day to day with us, generally 1 inch and above hail is enough for severe and if the risk of surface flooding is above about 20% then we use a severe for that. A tornado risk above 5% also warrants one.

At the local pub, was hard to get a job elsewhere because people generally want to employ 18+ year olds but the local pub landlord was nice so we knew I wouldn't get messed around by them. The chef's are nice and helpful and the food smells nice so you won't get a bad smell from the job, I think I'm lucky to get a job inside a fairly soundproof room with the chef's and me the dishwasher (and sometimes potato peeler) because it means we can put on a Spotify playlist full of rock and not disturb the people eating and drinking. Fingers crossed for your son's trial with Folkestone Harbour.

Convective Outlook 3CAPE in excess of 150 J/KG with locally 200+ J/KG along the inner portion of a jet streak with large and suitable moisture transport for some active storms to form. These will likely form on PV lobes and from orographic forcing. Local QG forcings with pressure deformation will allow for some active storms to potentially form in areas. Despite fairly weak SBCAPE because of local surface buoyancy maximas associated with Quasi-Geostrophic forcing mentioned before, pulse-type storms could become active in areas. Clustering may occur with +VE PV rolls stretched in a line given mostly QG forced storms, however, that tends to weaken storms I find. So the less clustered they get, the better for forecasting verification. Along the jet streak, strong wind gusts could take place and given the moisture advection, surface flooding may also occur. An isolated brief tornado may occur given the extent of LLS in some areas. Very strong LLLR's could give the risk for some non-severe hail size.

Well it did happen this evening. Had a good shower go through but when I was at work. Now I know how the others who have storms at work feel.