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Liam Burge

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Posts posted by Liam Burge

    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pages and pages to get through this morning!  Glad I didn’t watch the pub run yesterday!

    ECM perfect this morning, and well backed up by ensembles.  Here’s op and mean anomalies T240:

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    I have to say, given the ensembles are 51 runs, and the anomaly plot is therefore diluted by virtue of different individual runs having the block in slightly different places (hence it is more pink and less red than the op anomaly chart), it is a very strong signal and there looks now a high chance of the block being situated and orientated in a way to bring in a really decent, prolonged easterly.  So if it isn’t cold to start with, it will soon get colder.

    Just a word on the op runs.  At the timescales we are interested in at the moment, the op runs will be churning out runs within a large envelope of uncertainty.  You can see roughly what that is from the ensembles, clusters etc.  So just because the 18z was a bad one doesn’t mean GFS has flipped or anything, it could be any of the other models that roll bad dice next time.  So while it is interesting to watch the individual runs come out, it is best done with an idea in the head of what that envelope of uncertainty currently is.  If an op run throws up a solution way outside that envelope, then take note, otherwise just expect a few good ones, a few bad ones and the occasional peach like the ECM op this morning - until the uncertainty reduces and we can see the way forward.

    It's not just a small or weak block either. GFS showing a 1060mb high with very cold air just to our west and even getting into the country by the end of the run. Not sure what would shift that high to be honest. Definitely an interesting time to be model watching! I think we'll see a change in the Met's outlook presto.

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    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Definitely not a bad start to the crossover between Autumn and Winter. MJO phase 6-7, a faily good looking AAM, weak zonal wind. We've seen worse positions,in fact you could argue we haven't seen a better starting position for quite a few Winters as I don't think 2020/21 started like this. If we keep the up for a month or two and don't get decent cold, we'll have to have been really unlucky.

    We've already got 1 possible setup and we aren't even in December yet. With the MJO phase 6/7 lag, WAA is pushed up towards Greenland and possibly flips us to a -NAO style pattern over us and some early season colder air.

    It's very weird considering the time of year and the oceanic La Nina phase. Like I said, there are worse positions to be in. @MattH a few posts above tells the story a lot better than me, as I'm just an interested 15 year old and I'd advise listening to him this Winter.

    You're only 15?? You're extremely knowledgeable and your posts always give me something new to learn about how our weather works!!

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    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    What better weather modelling computer systems do they have access to? Looking at the UK Met Office ,they use the ECM for 10 day forecast along with their own and the GFS. I often read this in here, they have access to some other system, if so to what end? Is this seasonal model perhaps and actually software they run. I am totally with you that they are professional, and I'll take their output 100 times over some others on forums, but not sure about access to other systems.

     

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/weather--climate-guides/weather_facts.pdf

    • Like 5

    Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

    Weather has no rules which has been shown many times not least by the winters of 2008/09 - 2012/13 by saying we are on for the warmest year on record are we saying this will continue indefinitely....no just noting the period of colder winters we had not that long ago.

    Im not by any means saying we are going to have a cold winter but what i am saying is there is no reason to discount it. Even some longer range models are showing at least some interest of the cold persuation which is like hens teeth in itself.

    Come back to me in mid jan and if nothing has changed i MAY concede 😊

    That wasn't what I was trying to get at, sorry

    Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, SteveB said:

    I agree with all you say, but...... we haven't had a below average month this year, we are nearly into November and looking at almost record breaking high temps for the time of year. 

    It would be some turnaround and at the best time of year, to flip the above average temps to below average temps.

    Maybe I've had my fingers burnt far to many time over the last several Winters looking at the models to believe any of them when they show blocked cold synoptic.

    Until I see snow falling outside my window,  nothing the models say or show will make me think cold is on the way.

    I'll be looking out for record warm temps this Winter, and satisfy my weather interest in that, rather than chase fantasy beasts from the East.

    That's true. Looking at the CET we're on track to have the hottest on record:

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    The last time I (and probably you) had a proper snowfall was during the BFTE in 2018. We've been so agonisingly close to having some proper cold spells over these past few years, however they just haven't happened. Take for example the 'cold' winter of last year that wasn't to be. We can remain in hope to have a cold winter, but it's really a guessing game at this point. 

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