Liam Burge
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Posts posted by Liam Burge
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Let's hope it lasts until it gets to Bristol!
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We might see an amber rain warning issued soon for this. The met just updated the rain warning to increase the impact matrix and give higher rainfall totals. I'd bet the amber warning would be over the higher ground.
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Quite incredible to go from dreamy hemispheric charts everywhere you look two weeks ago to standard winter fayre now. As some warned back then, when it flips it really does flip.
there is very little to hang a hat on moving forwards. The next two weeks look v unlikely to bring anything notable - always a risk that we bring some of those low heights south if a wedge positions itself well but that’s not particularly expected. Scottish hills should do ok outside the warm sectors.
so we wait for something to happen later week 2 …… for a ridge to move northwards if the polar profile allows. in the meantime, the treasury is happier than it was !
Always happens in the UK!
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Just now, Easily sled said:
It’s south, it’s north , it’s south again, can’t keep up! Just going to look out of the window I think!
It’s south, it’s north , it’s south again, can’t keep up! Just going to look out of the window I think!
It’s south, it’s north , it’s south again, can’t keep up! Just going to look out of the window I think!
It’s south, it’s north , it’s south again, can’t keep up! Just going to look out of the window I think!
It's currently more north than the models predicted. However, it is moving SSE.
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Just now, Dorsetbred said:
With these temperatures?
If you're near the coast then you're probably just going to be getting rain, however if you're inland you could see snow or sleet.
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Just now, khodds said:
Isn’t it meant to go on through the night too?
I believe so. Some areas could see some good accumulations from this. Although not everyone will see that, some areas (especially on the hills) could see around 10cm+. I believe most of us in this forum will probably see between 1 and 5cm.
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5 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:
Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see
It's going to be down to now casting tbh, none of the forecasts are showing snow for my area however I do believe we are going to be seeing snow in around an hour to two hours.
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47 minutes ago, offerman said:
Mass of rain off SW as that comes inland it should be snow. Anyone care to guess how much we could get from this?
It looks like the band of rain is way more north than the models are currently predicting. For example:
Current radar:
What it is meant to look like:
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1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:
@Liam Burge is this 'assault' from the opposite direction to the weekend yielding better results?
Yep, it snowed for about 10 minutes, we've got a tiny bit laying on the ground now.
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4 hours ago, The Enforcer said:
@Liam Burge did you manage to see any falling/settling snow?
A bit of freezing rain and some very icy surfaces this morning but no snow haha
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Somewhere between Burnham and Weston is gonna be the sweet spot for this I think.
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ruh roh shaggy. going too north for me.
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2 minutes ago, matt111 said:
It's heading towards me too. Just I'm probably about 100 miles too far west, you'll have taken all it's got before it gets anywhere near here
I will send you pics if it comes here. It's gonna be sods law that it misses me too, but at least it gives me an excuse to stay up wrapping these presents!
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STREAMER setting up with my town in it's target???!!
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Almost there!!! Looks like another shower is popping up behind this one too.
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Hang in there little buddy!!
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1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:
Incoming top left:
lets all watch it die out just before it hits me
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Guess I'll be staying up for another 82 minutes
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Hey all!
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but the 'Cold Weather Alert' by the Met has now been upgraded to a 99% chance of cold / severely cold weather, which is just 1% off a national emergency declaration. If we read what each region can expect, there's been some quite significant upgrades:
What is also interesting to note is the Southeast/London discussion, "There is currently a 30% risk of up to 5cm of snow on Sunday 11th December around London and the Southeast, please keep a watch for any National Severe Weather Warnings that may be issued by the Met Office if confidence on this event increases."
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24 minutes ago, irish1 said:
10% chance now so I think we can be safe it won’t be blowing cold away. Slide baby slide
However NOAA does say significant development of the system will take place and hurricane force wind warnings are in affect for the seas.
'significant non-tropical development of this low is expected during the next couple of days, and additional information, including hurricane-force wind warnings'
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New NOAA outlook has dropped the chance of a tropical system forming from 50% to 30%, however the end of their outlook also suggests a possible rapid strengthening of the low over cold waters.
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since last evening near a large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. However, the system remains embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become more pronounced later today as the low begins to move east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, while the system could show some subtropical characteristics today, its chances to fully transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is expected during the next couple of day
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I love cold as much as the next person, but these temperatures would just be ridiculous and dangerous. -6c with a feels like temp of -11c. I know this is unlikely to happen but it just goes to show the true potential that this cold spell may have. Bear in mind, this is in Bridgwater which is very far south, so cities more north could expect to see temperatures much lower than we are being forecast.
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
Almost!!