Liam Burge
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Posts posted by Liam Burge
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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Looks like that storm in the channel could be heading towards London way if it keeps it up and not die before reaching uk
Idk what you're looking at but it's going the complete opposite way to impact London. Models have been showing this feature.
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For those thinking they're gonna miss out in the SW, I believe most in somerset will see a massive thunderstorm roll through sometime between 2am and 3am. We can already see the start of it forming in the channel, and it's expected to merge together into a massive storm.
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Is this trying to hook?
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And we have lift off!
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Seems like people in the SW could get a surprise tonight with that little feature! Wonder why the Met isn't issuing a warning for it as this feature has been modelled for multiple runs in a row now.
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33 minutes ago, camturbo said:
See estofex have issued a level 1 for parts of france and southwest England so could be a surprise or two for a few possibly
Seems like a very low chance of any thunderstorms popping up. To be honest, I'm really not sure why a level 1 has been issued, there's no rain forecast for any area in the South West at all for today. They mention "large hail" and "heavy precipitation" but I just don't see this happening.
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13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:
This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.
Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.
That looks like CFS is going for an SSW with reversal in the winds?
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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Just the slight windchill
Gets even colder too
A few frozen pipes on this run!
Lets hope we see this at T0 sometime this winter!!!
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Looks like we could experience a Super El Nino this winter, wonder what that will mean for our cold chances!
BOM has it peaking at 2.9c, and ECMWF is just off the charts with some of it's ensembles getting close to +3.5c above average.
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8 minutes ago, Nick L said:
"A storm will be named when it has the potential to cause an amber or red warning"
So based on that, either they're going against their own criteria or they'll upgrade it to amber as the event is happening by which point it's too late to take notice of it anyway
Yes, I believe that they will issue an Amber warning sometime later, as they have just increased the Impact Matrix to one below the Amber warning threshold, so once models get a better idea of where this will hit I believe that they'll do an amber warning.
Looking at the latest UKV, looks like Exeter could see some quite damaging gusts.
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13 minutes ago, Rich_Clements said:
Morning All,
A change in wind direction this morning it has also dropped which is nice, it seems to have been a windy year so far.
Looks like the wind will pick back up on Saturday as a (possibly?) named storm enters our area. Met just put out a Yellow warning which I could see being upgraded to Amber if confidence increases in this scenario.
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14 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
For south west England , Tuesday early hours looks interesting for thunderstorms
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Probably nothing thundery associated with this, but rain is very good!
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Just now, Chris K said:
Interesting, as most models keep main activity further NE from us. Their rain warning for overnight last night was questionable though, so I'm not getting excited..
Yep. Their rain warning was for a system that was meant to be a lot more intense / long lasting than it was. Guessing the cloud cover and constant drizzle all day limited the risk and then just didn't have the energy to form anything good.
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MetO just expanded the thunderstorm risk to include my area! Guess that's over for today
Today does look very interesting for those in the Midlands, if I could drive then I'd definitely be out chasing today.
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Sun just came out for the first time today here. Hoping to get some storms later on.
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Some cells starting to pop up.
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Looking towards France is this a TBSS?
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Just now, summer blizzard said:
Arome won that round.
Although quite a bit more west than forecast.
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2 minutes ago, Eye to the sky said:
I’m camping out in the garden tonight with my 8 year old lad. So I can guarantee we will get a storm and ruin the bbq.
Hope you have a nice time!
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7 minutes ago, Cain said:
I’m in the circled area so frustrating everything is going south an east of me !
Haha! I'm currently in Bristol right now and everything is missing us too! My sister back in Bridgwater is saying they're getting loads of thunder and lightning, if only I'd planned to come down last weekend!
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Believe I just heard a faint rumble of thunder here in Bristol, although I wasn't really paying attention. Looking on lightning radars it does seem like something is trying to come my way!
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Just now, Sunny76 said:
Well tell the storms to pull their fingers out of their rear ends!
It's only 1pm!
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1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:
Nothing in London.
Probably another thunder less summer coming up for my neck of the woods lol.
Nothing is meant to be happening in London for a few hours. Give it time.
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These storms are very active! Funny how they're outside of any warning as well!
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I think this could be quite the prolific lightning producer if it manages to survive the trek across the channel. The humidity right now is insane, it literally feels like a sauna here in the south west.
One interesting thing to note, is that the whole system is about 50miles west of where it was forecast by the MetOffice