[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, throwoff said:

With the new Met warnings this is looking like what they are leaning into. 

06Z will be massive today, could break hearts or build confidence.

Or could do neither and be just as clueless as everything else.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Freezing Dew points are chasing down the precip now 

I wonder if some people could wake up with a surprise snow fall! Met predicting rain here with 2c.. Could I get lucky?!!?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, UKSnakey said:

Have the models ever struggled at such a short time frame? This is becoming a nowcast instead of a forecast if there's no agreement by the 06 runs

It's always a now-cast situation with snow for England, especially with setups like this where a shift just 20-30 miles north/south can have big consequences/rewards for IMBY.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

9 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

Thoughts?

Follows in line with what the MetO said in their outlook on Youtube. A 60% chance of a channel-low type scenario happening which would favour South West England + South Wales.

It does seem that the GFS is following that scenario again, and in my mind is probably the most likely scenario to happen based on past events.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Okay GFS!! I'd take that in a heart beat. Perfect bullseye for Bristol!

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

North East and West England and Yorkshire is now in a **Level 3** cold weather alert, with the rest of England being in a **Level 2** cold weather alert. I'm expecting all areas to be in a Level 3 cold weather alert sometime this weekend/early next week as we're looking to see increasingly cold air come in from the North. Snow showers are possible just about anywhere, however it's more likely to be rain the further south you go.

We are also looking at the possibility for a low to impact the South-West next week which could cause some disruptive snow or some rain depending on the track.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I don't even need to look at the models this morning!! I'm guessing a run was a cracker.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Which really is a thinly veiled 'I haven't blocked anyone but i am throwing my toys out the pram because i can't hack others opinions'

I mean, this is a model output discussion thread, not a lets throw all our towels thread. Pretty sure most of these comments should just be moved to the moans chat.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

I think you might be right - Siberian temps this year hit record lows of -60 degrees - finger losing and toe losing type weather LOL - but it does look like the ARTIC TRAIN of cold will be doing it's best to FREEZE us possibly Feb/March 2018 Redux or even longer with a December 2010 REDUX - batten down the hatches - get the supplies in - and HUNKER DOWN! Best advice to give! Exciting stuff!

Yep, get into the shops before the panic buyers. Can already see how the papers are gonna present this. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

50 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Much that I love your enthusiasm you do realise it’s always day 10? The amount of day 10s we have had lately should be around day 2 or 3 by now! Let’s hope these charts do make it before the end of March but time will tell. If in another week it’s day 10 I really would just start looking for day 10 thunderstorms and heat personally 

Because the main event isn't happening until after 10 days? It's been steadily counting down each day. As you can see by most model runs posted on here, around the 4th or 5th seems to be go which is in around 10/11 days time. However; this signal for around the 4th/5th was showing 5+ days ago, so would have been in around 15/16 days time. The signal is there for something very good for us, and I'm getting excited about the countdown.

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Morning. Anyone looking for serious cold ,is looking for Fools Gold. Really cannot see anything going to materialise from this...Anyway Im ready to throw the towel in now, Roll on Spring.....!

Throwing the towel in 10+ days before the event is meant to start? You must be pretty confident! All signs I've seen so far have been pointing to cold from around the 5th of march, so my towel is staying firmly in place.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

showing a chart  right at the end of its run that finally shows something similar to the 00z run,and before that it looked a complete mess and you wonder why people think its useless.

Carry-on if you think the gfs is so wonderful

Around the 5th/6th is when it's expected to become interesting re the effects of the SSW?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

WHAT A  crud run this is after the 00z runs.Typical gfs ,thats why looking at fL on  gfs whatever it shows is a waste of time,and it never verifys either.

Failing to see how this is a 'crud run', please explain instead of just throwing the usual insults at the GFS.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I thought this was the model output thread not the model bashing thread?.. Can we just save the snarky comments until after? Getting bored of seeing so many posts like

"GFS junk continues to embarrass itself.." or 

"Think we might have a 'That GFS' moment on on our hands unfortunately."

Is just annoying and serves literally no purpose on this thread.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Once again, the GFS stays consistent with a very cold easterly flow. How many runs in a row has it shown this exact same scenario happen?? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

GFS has been very consistent on this theme for quite a while now.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Snowing in Bridgwater now. Won't set due to the rain we've just had.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Level 3 alert issued for our area, and the whole of England.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Lets hope this snow warning delivers! I'm up in Bristol currently but going back down to my home town tomorrow afternoon.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Just hoping we can get a few days of dry weather before this cold spell/snap happens. If not, it's going to be an ice rink pretty much everywhere in the south west with standing water / flooding in multiple locations. Also just got issued with this so will add further problems to travel and further increase the height of rivers around here. 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Certainly a welcomed upgrade from the GFS this morning. Brings quite the snow storm to my area and most of S/W England. Of course this is only one model run so we'll need to look for consistencies, but it's getting interesting! Paired with what is happening high above us in the stratosphere it's quite the time to be a weather enthusiast.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

This rain is mental.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Rich_Clements said:

Can anyone recommend a lightning tracker app?
 

 

Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map

MAP.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

---

See lightning strikes in realtime nearby your area. Get free online access to maps of former and current thunderstorms. A contribution by Blitzortung.org and contributors.

 is what I use.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Just had a massive boom of thunder, my whole room shook. Literally.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

o.o