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Liam Burge

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Posts posted by Liam Burge

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, agreed in the sense that if it is on the models, it is permitted by the laws of physics.  That is not the same as it being plausible, though!  Need to wait until we see what the models show when it comes into the reliable.  

    Any which way, this is turning into one of the most fascinating periods of model watching I can remember!

    Yep. Has been a very fun week or so watching these models, not without some frights though! If this mega low were to happen then we'd certainly see some good snowfall accumulations in certain spots.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, John88B said:

    Is that low even feasible Mike and is that the main threat to a longer cold spell?

    I will quote something I said in PMs earlier:
    "If the storm were to happen like the GFS models it, then it would mean that the 'storm' is deepening by 5mb every single hour (as it dropped 20mb in 4 hours). I would argue that something like this, in the environment that it's being shown to form in is impossible. Not even in the most perfect of conditions has there ever been a system that has deepened 20mb in 4 hours, at least not that I can find."

     

    However, saying that I am not quite sure how rapid the deepening of the low is on the ECM as I haven't checked out the model run (just woke up). However, I would say it isn't feasible given the environment and wind shear that is present.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168 and unfortunately the effects of the tropical storm starting to be felt here, means uppers getting more marginal.  The 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Accessories, Outdoors, ArtCould contain: Plot, Chart, Accessories, Art, Pattern, Outdoors

    What’s the pressure in the middle of that thing?  950 hPa?

    FC2445D5-795B-4795-9520-593E5DD2F759.thumb.jpeg.2ecd81fe7bae917e949f0e1ccd2f83e9.jpeg

    Bizarre at this time of year.

    Not sure. This output has seemed weird to me since the start when ECM showed it a few days ago. I feel like the models are just throwing every single possible solution at us because they have no idea on how strong or where the low pressure system will be. We'll have to wait for it to start forming to see where it goes and how the models resolve it. Until then, it looks like we'll be seeing a plunge into some pretty cold and potentially wintery days so we have this to look forward too.

     

    Also, on an unrelated note, I have noticed that the MetO changed their wording for the South west outlook for 3 days time.

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Staying mainly dry with much brighter skies than on previous days and some sunshine for most. Isolated showers, these turning wintry by Thursday. Turning much colder with widespread overnight frosts.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 12z (Left) GFS 18z (Right) for my location shows a further swing towards colder conditions for a longer period of time. Less solutions seem to be going for that low spinning up milder air, although there are still a few that develop this low. We will have to wait and see how the models develop this and if it could even potentially become favourable for us in terms of a snow storm.

    Could contain: Blackboard, Chart           Could contain: Chart

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Liam Burge

    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Much talk on here about that mega gfs atlantic storm and even more talked about discounting it as an impossibility. However, it's only 24 hours since THAT ECM which depressed a Friday evening on here (attached to jog memories). It was this same bomb system (all be it a more watered down version) that broke the cold spell on that run. Maybe it shouldn't be discounted totally if it has been showed by the ecm and gfs within the space of 24 hours. 

    ECH1-168.gif

    ECH1-192.gif

    I'm not discounting it, however I do believe that the models are overdoing the strength of this system. Like someone earlier posted that it deepens 20mb in 4 hours, which is just unprecedented deepening even in the most favourable conditions on the planet, and not some Atlantic ocean that is just a bit warmer than average. We just need to monitor this system and see where it tracks in the next outlooks, and I am 100% expecting the low to be weaker on runs going forward.

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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Kasim has every right to a opinion, regardless of how popular or unpopular it may be.

    Although it remains outside the reliable timeframe it's something to look out for.

    I never said he didn't have an opinion. Just very confusing on where people stand when they keep changing their mind every single model run ⛄

    • Like 12
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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Waiting for the more extended control buddy then they gona be flying all over your screen!!!!😉

     

    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    You got the link mate?

    It will likely continue to be cold with further showers for much of the UK, which will fall as sleet and snow across the north leading to some accumulations of snow across higher ground, showers falling as rain or sleet more likely in parts of the south. Away from coasts there will likely be a good deal of fine and dry weather with sunny spells at times in the south, but with some sharp overnight frosts expected. There is a small chance that some less cold weather and rain could push up into the extreme south later on in the forecast period. On balance, however temperatures remaining cold or very cold everywhere in the UK throughout.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Just to think only a few hours ago some were ready to jump off Dover cliff...some perhaps even drowned there sorrows with drink...some even resorted to not talking to the missus (you deserve credit for that one) but hell fast forward a few hours and a splendid GFS run and now I can almost imagine what you may be doing right now! 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art

    giphy.gif

    100% live reaction of me watching GFS roll out:

    happy-too-happy.gif.5792a7a532ee34dc920f596d3c145a56.gif

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I know I am not very experienced with models/weather/how everything pans out, but the current OP runs seem a bit unrealistic to me. Wasn't the atlantic practically dead like a day or two ago? And now the OP runs want to blow up a low and get it to almost hurricane strength? Just seems unrealistic to me and we will need to wait and see how this is resolved.

    I am both excited and nervous right now; the ECM was an outlier, however other models are starting to go along with this trend of creating a hurricane out of practically thin air and just bombarding the UK with it. Not sure if this is a fake signal and the models are just overdoing it, or it's something we legitimately need to be concerned above from a view of both the cold and potentially damaging wind if these model runs were to be believed.

    Without a doubt we are currently in one of the best positions starting winter that we have been in the past decade, and I get people's upset when they see the OP run just fall apart in front of their eyes, however it is still multiple days out and anything could change in that time, for better or for worse. Reading through posts before, it seems like the models always do something like this when a cold spell is due? Guess they just want to keep us on our tippy toes right until the end!!

    Anyway, sorry for this long and ranty post but I just wanted to get my feelings out there, and I'm hoping for the best and expecting even better! Happy Holidays everyone, and enjoy your weekend!

    • Like 6
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