Liam Burge
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Posts posted by Liam Burge
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5 minutes ago, andy989 said:
I know it varies but Is there an average/typical lag time between an SSW and its effects being felt? Asking because I’m working in India for 2 weeks on February and it would be my luck that I miss all the action
I believe the average is 2 weeks, however I could be completely wrong on this.
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A fairly significant cluster of ECMWF ensemble members are going for an SSW during the 1st-2nd week of January. This has been shown for some time, and every day more members are joining this cluster.
FWIW, I do believe that by mid Jan we'll be seeing an SSW.
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New weather-health alerts have been issued.
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
disagree
look below the thick black line is the Op and it is right at the bottom.
In the image you showed, the OP actually has quite a bit of ensemble support.
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For my location in Bridgwater, the latest GFS is also hinting at a possible blizzard with whiteout conditions if that run came to fruition.
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8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later
I personally think next week won't deliver but will help hugely in lowering ground/sea temps for the next event
Yes but messages such as "this is a horror show" add literally nothing to the discussion.
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
The 06z looks perfectly fine to me? Sub 528 DAM air to the south of the UK, even with fairly modest 850's under the slack flow snow would be possible to lower levels either way.
Just goes to show how good of a position we are currently in at this time when such charts are perceived as bad.
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I don't know about "Horror show"
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Could definitely be an interesting (and cold) start to Winter!
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1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Tweet by Judah Cohen.
Definitely exciting times ahead of us.
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2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Models have shifted the winds south today so far, need higher confidence before putting the Amber warning further North, likely tomorrow
True; I expect a further northward shift of the amber wind warning tomorrow and an introduction of an amber rain warning also tomorrow. I don't think any red warnings will be issued; if there was gonna be red warnings then the current amber warning would have been of a higher likelihood.
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I thought the amber warning would have been extended more northward than what it currently is. Maybe they will do that tomorrow.
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Just now, Mapantz said:
UKV has been slowly lowering wind gusts for here.
Down to 50mph now.
Same here. Only 46mph for my location
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Well; I'm thinking of travelling on a train back home Thursday afternoon. Hopefully Ciaran won't be as bad as forecast. Hope everyone on the coast stays safe.
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2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
They have been, but for Thursday unless they've already been taken down, once likely good increases, those are or were in the last impact column.
Oh I'm not sure, I just saw this warning be issued like an hour ago; I can't see any warnings that are in the highest impact column though.
EDIT:
Just seen the yellow wind warnings issued too, and yes they are in the highest impact column.
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Well, yellow warnings for rain has now been issued for what the Met is calling "Storm Ciarán". I thought they'd hold off at least another day before issuing warnings, but I could also see an amber rain warning issued for some areas in a few days; the current yellow warning is just one possibility matrix below an amber warning, so when the track is nailed more I could see this being issued.
We'll probably also see yellow wind warnings issued sometime tomorrow.
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Wonder if we could be starting to see a warming show up?
0z vs 06z
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4 hours ago, Metwatch said:
Would probably also be worth mentioning that 1877-1878 had the strongest +IOD on record during Autumn
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1 hour ago, emmett garland said:
Could we see a tornado
"The combination of high low-level streamwise vorticity and low cloud bases points to the risk of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes"
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Lets hope this storm near Torquay / Paignton bodes well for us lot later on today! Pretty sure no one was expecting any storms of this intensity this early on!
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Ooo this is interesting!! One of the more interesting wordings I've seen on a MetO outlook in quite some time.
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Still looks game on for my location overnight. Definitely looks like it's trying to intensify to the east and die out on the westernmost part of the storm.
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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I’m hating the word ‘west’ this evening
Haha! It's always the case.. either too far west or too far east, never exactly where we want it to be!
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Just now, SilverWolf said:
Line from Truro-Exeter look like a good target soon…
Yep, then tracking North / North East.
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but definitely quite an interesting insight by the Met into what could happen later on in the season.