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Arch Stanton

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Posts posted by Arch Stanton

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

    If January is anything to go by, it'll all start off with "fantastic" ice age-style deep freeze charts, which will get delayed and pushed back multiple times, before a watered down version will produce a few days of below average and one day of snow before milder conditions storm back in.

    Spot on. 

    There were even references to 1947 & 1963 in the last chase!

    I might be wrong but with SSTs being so much warmer now (~+2.5c) coupled with a shrinking arctic ice-mass, I don’t think it would be possible to repeat those winter now….

    Ah well, let the crazy kids carry on, it’s entertaining

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Its all starting up again in the MAD thread and once again its all FI stuff, 29th Jan and beyond  - its quite sadistic what they're doing to themselves.

    Don't get me wrong I hope it comes off but it seems like you need a 1001 things to be perfectly aligned for it to happen

    Just now, Weather-history said:

    Embarrassing regional weather forecast on Good Morning Britain this morning. I haven't see something as bad as this. This is what happens when you don't do a live weather broadcast. The bulk of NW England was affected by snow as this was being aired.

     

    That is shocking

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Arch Stanton

    21 hours ago, MAF said:

    just seen this on beeb site 

    seems it might get cold soon..... thought that's what winter did 

    Indeed, all of these nonsensical warnings for what in effect are ‘normal to be expected weather conditions’ cause warning fatigue, diluting its message as they become ten-a-penny so to speak.

     

    This is one for the ‘Things that tick you off thread’

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Arch Stanton

    This feels like the wettest 3 months (Oct-Dec) that I’ve experienced in 24yrs of living in London.

    Rainfall figures for Oct-Dec are 51% higher than average:

     

    Oct - Dec Avg 227mm

    Oct - Dec 342mm

    Oct Avg 74.8mm Actual 124.4mm

    Nov Avg 73.7mm Actual 103.3mm

    Dec Avg 72.5mm Actual 114.7

    Its been relentless recently, what a horrible few months 

     

     

     

     

    Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Apologies if this has already been discussed elsewhere, does anyone know why all the Scottish mountain webcams are no longer available?

    Loch Morlich, Cairngorm mountain, Nevis range etc, all of them have a Streamdays logo on them now so it’s not possible to check out the snow conditions anymore.

    For over a decade I’ve used Winterhighland to view the snow up in the munroes and now that luxury looks like it’s been monetised?

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Scottish Snow & Mountain Sports // Ski Reports, Webcams, Mountain Weather // Winterhighland

    WWW.WINTERHIGHLAND.INFO
    Ski Scotland Snow Conditions. Scottish Snow and Mountain Sports, ski reports and webcams

     

    • Like 3

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Arch Stanton
    Typo

    1 hour ago, NewEra21 said:

    As always, once the Atlantic gets in it’s always a long road back to anything cold or dry. We’ve seen it countless times, weak PV, strong PV, good or bad background signals.

    Every year we hear this year is different, Atlantic won’t be as present, background signals are more favourable etc etc.

    The Atlantic always rules in winter (especially the past 20-30 years) and it takes something special to get out of this rut once it gets going.

    The FI charts for the 20/21 Dec look amazing and I really hope they materialise, but we've all seen them a thousand times before, the Atlantic nearly always wins out. 
    Our rotten location means that too many variables need to be aligned perfectly to bring us snow, never mind another another 2010 event.
     

    Lets hope the deep seated cold in Scandinavia holds out at least, if it does then who knows.

    • Like 1

    Autumn 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, danm said:

    Here is the latest forecast for early afternoon:

    IMG_0172.thumb.jpeg.a16155ea829383a9fd29841e9348a4bf.jpeg

     

    This is the current radar.

    IMG_0173.thumb.jpeg.8772ae9dd5b825f93d06a0e9a2cf1ba8.jpeg

    Are we expecting this huge band of heavy rain to fragment and dissipate enough to produce what’s shown on that forecast by 1pm?

    Your radar pic from this morning and what actually happened at 1300 are very different for areas west of Swindon, so even 3.5 hrs out it was way off.


    Regarding the BBC, ever since their partnership with Meteogroup, I've found their forecasts have gone downhill rapidly.
    They seem worse in the winter, especially when we have brief Polar Maritime air incursions with bands of showers on NW winds; their graphics often show snow showers all over the UK, even in places like Cornwall and SW Wales when the air temp is 8/9/10c. Its like reading a Daily Express weather headline, a load of tosh.

    1300hrs.png

    • Like 2

    Best location for outdoor sensor

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    On 09/11/2023 at 13:51, TSNWK said:

    I would agree with that.. I'm reasonably confident you be much closer.  Please let us know:)

    It worked, my minimum Temp was 5.3c between 2-3am last night , that’s 0.2c more than the NetWeather virtual weather station page.

    A combination of latent heat (as you said) and close proximity to my kitchen window was skewing things 

    Thanks, you’ve saved me a few quid!

     

     

    • Like 1

    Best location for outdoor sensor

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    I would certainly think about using the fence post before trying other interventions.  The place by the window would be at risk of latent heat through the brickwork..and this would only be increased if sensor within a plastic bag..  think greenhouse effect   

    So long as fence is shaded I reckon you will a lot closer to other readings

    Thanks, I’ve now moved it back to the fence, the sensor is covered and the back  is not resting on the soaking wet wood, the temperature has fallen 0.4c already which is a good sign.

    If the overnight minimum is still out by 3-4c tomorrow then I’ll need to go shopping again unless they offer me a replacement.

    Best location for outdoor sensor

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    I currently have a Youshiko YC9481 weather station and I’m having issues with the sensor in that it’s over inflating the outdoor temperature. 
    Last night for example, according to the virtual weather station page in NetWeather, the minimum temp in my postcode was 4.8c. Now allowing for a margin of error of 1c, my unit recorded 7.6c as the lowest min, this is too far out to ignore.

    So unless they send me a replacement (it’s 11mths old), it looks like I’ll be buying yet another weather station soon).

    I have attached a photo of the only 2 spots I can place the sensor, it’s either on the wet wooden fence on the right or half way up the window, (this is where it’s been until now, I think the single pane window is allowing heat from my kitchen to affect the temp reading).

    The sensor is covered in a Royal Mail money bag to keep it dry, there is no sheltered spot out there but at least it’s in the shade all year round.

    The height of the sensor is around 5ft up from the ground so that’s good. 
     

    Am I right in thinking that positioning the sensor on wall near the window is unwise?

    Also, am I right in thinking that even when the outside of plastic money bag cover gets wet, it will also affect the sensors temp readings as the water slowly evaporates?

    I just don’t know where is the best place for a sensor. Any help / advice would be much appreciated!

     

     

     

    IMG_3315.jpeg

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Late Autumn / Early Winter cold across The British Isles normally establishes from the north rather than the continent. A big immovable Scandinavian High ? Its a long time since one of those sent prolonged cold into the UK. Yes, I prey for one as well. Good for you but not so for the Eastern Alps !

    C

    I live in hope!

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Evening all. The Polar Jet Stream out to this weekend continues  to show a more southerly track than normal with the British Isles on the colder side. Several models have shown developments of  slider low in the vicinity of Southern Britain to move towards the Alps during Sunday as indicated on the chart below. Beyond that the models still ebbing and flowing with a continuation of the prolonged unsettled spell against some form of build in high pressure being more influential to the forecast for Mid - month.  I have a feeling that a rather colder scenario getting established by then. This is mostly based on a continuation of the more southerly tracking jet shown by the models.

    C

    ARPOPEU12_114_1.png

    Unless the near continent gets properly cold then any wintry weather over the SE is usually short-lived. Its good to see Scandanavia cold & very snowy so early on, I'm just praying for a big, immovable Scandi high this winter.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
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