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Arch Stanton

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Posts posted by Arch Stanton

    Drought Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

    As stated - I think we're overdue a drought year/years. The UK rainfall levels have usually always been episodic with 2-5 years of very dry weather being followed by very wet weather - however, this hasn't really been the case since the exceptional rainfall of 2012. We've had dry periods (mid-2016 to mid-2017 springs to mind) but no real proper dry periods like 1988-1992 or 1995-1997. While I wouldn't particularly want a repeat, it wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this may be the start of a drier couple of years. Or in typical fashion, it could revert to very wet sometime around autumn and lead us into a wet 2023. Time will tell...

    It is very, very dry out there though. We had some light rainfall in the past few days but nothing to moisten the ground or green the grass. Here in Islington, much of the parks are starting to go very dusty and brown - I haven't seen that since 2018. It's been perpetually dry here since September 2021. November onwards its been particularly dry. Only February has since brought rather near average rainfall and also a few wetter days in June. 

    Not sure about it being perpetually dry since last Sept, the ground was absolutely saturated in February this year, but it’s definitely been drier than normal since May and almost drought like since June.

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Yeah that's not happened has it. That would give a dewpoint of 37c! Even somewhere like Doha (surrounded by the Persian Gulf at 28-30c) 'only' sees humidity around 50-60% during the height of summer. Northern Spain would probably be fairly low humidity in hot weather due to the landmass. Probably just felt humid with that level of heat.

    I was in Mundaka and that was what the barometers were saying.

    I couldn’t give a toss if you or anyone believe it or not - not my problem 

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, danm said:

    Noticeably fresher today, but still feeling very warm in the sunshine. A lovely sunny morning so far.

    After experiencing an unbearable 40c & 41c last Fri & Sat in Northern Spain (with 80% humidity) I'm grateful for this freshness we're experiencing

     

    Spring and Summer weather moans

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Arch Stanton

    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Any other hayfever sufferers finding today is off the scale bad?

    I took my usual nasal spray and anti-histamine tablet when I got up at 6am. By 7am when I was at work I had to blow my nose about 6 times, and my eyes were itchy beyond belief. My nose/sinuses also feel really inflamed today. It's noticeably a lot worse than recently.

    A friend of mine deliberately (occassionally) stings himself with nettles on his arm or hand, and he's reckons his hay-fever has completely disappeared - apparently, nettles are a natural anti-histimine.

    I laughed when he told me, but he swears by it and no longer uses sprays or tablets. Might be worth giving it a go as crazy as it sounds!

    • Like 2

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, minus10 said:

    Classic case of ambiguous/unclear/misleading information on the bbc weather app symbols. Today , just now 11:11am on 24th it is showing heavy snow showers for London. When you click on it you see that the chance of precipitation is ....9% ??

    So just looking at the symbol  you would get the incorrect impression that we are in for heavy snow showers today. Less than a 1 in 10 chance of it actually happening. I think that percentages should be shown next to the symbols so that people have a clearer idea of 'the balance of probabilities'

    The MeteoGroup graphics for snowfall are always exagerrated. I've seen vast swathes of white over central and southern england with air temps of 4-6c, they are completely unreliable and belong in the Daily Express!

    December 1981-January 1982

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    From Guardian of 2nd Jan 1982

    fIM96hs.jpgslWhuaQ.jpgXgg6v0h.jpg

    3rd Jan  

    aphlqFT.jpg

    4th Jan

    YV3zhqv.jpgWR3fVU7.jpgHKiUffD.jpg

    5th Jan

    v3VjNx4.jpg7Q1rSJo.jpgnllftWS.jpg

    6th Jan

    NBfBbE9.jpgShiKMzb.jpg

     

    7th Jan

    j13uQpD.jpgYfT59bq.jpgtByr3rz.jpg

    That’s brilliant, just out of curiosity have you actually kept these newspapers by any chance?

    What’s striking are the 13c temps 3/4 days before the blizzard and no general inkling of what was to come judging by the understated weather outlooks - it doesn’t seem like it was predicted at all

    I wonder how todays models and this forum would have coped 5/6 in advance?!

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Cold air crossing a relatively warm sea... "the worst"?.... Not if youre in the East, and if the breeze backs just a little to the Northeast then the East Midlands/East often gets a lot of Snow... Here in Derby its our most favoured direction.

    Continental air in winter is good for cold, but snow isnt guaranteed as the air is often dry. February 1986 was such a case for most of the Country... weeks of biting, penetrating frost - no snow.

    In his part of the world its Continental Air that delivers the goods, especially when atlantic fronts run up from the SW against it like in 1982. For S Wales that Northerly set up you describe hardly produces anything south of the Brecon Beacons so he's right in that respect for his part of the world

    December 1981-January 1982

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    The BBC have put up this great video of South Wales and the unforgettable winter of1981/82:

     

    It's up there with 1947 and 63 as far as South Wales is concerned although not as lon lasting as those other two. It snowed continuosly for 36hrs with an easterly gale and then on and off

    for 6-7 hours more. There was a snow drift in my garden that went up to the roof do 5m high.  I can't see how modern Britain could cope if this happened now, I'd love to see it happen though but

    I doubt it ever will.

     

    Anyway, Happy Xmas, enjoy the video

    _122363522_snow1.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Snow in Wales: Remembering 1981's white Christmas

    WWW.BBC.CO.UK
    The BBC's Neil Prior was three at the time and the snow is one of his formative memories.

     

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Watching temps on the near continent tonight..

     Already falling and -2C in Calais and Bruges, even lower in Belgium and Denmark where temps of -2 -4C . Most of N France is now also freezing.

    Northern Germany under cloud, but still falling around -3C,  Much colder further East  -4C in Poland and -10'sC in Western most parts of Russia.

    That is what we need to see ahead of Friday, for if we do pick up an easterly.. 

    MIA 

    A cold continent is always key, when Germany & the Low Countries are at 6-7c then anything we get is usually short lived or transient 

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