Arch Stanton
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Posts posted by Arch Stanton
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3 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:
Being someone in the procurement profession, I remember them re-tendering this service and the Met Office losing out in the tender process.
Lowest cost never equates to greater value. Be interesting to see who wins out when the contract is re-tendered. MeteoGroup have been pretty awful when forecasting cold I’ll say that much.
Agreed, Meteogroup are dreadful. I noticed a long time ago how their forecasts, in particular their graphics for snow showers are way off the mark. It was a few winters back and we were under a mild westerly with +7c to +10c temps for the majority of England & Wales, but Meteogroups graphics looked like something out of Narnia with loads of 'white' shower blobs all over Wales and Dartmoor; it was complete fantasy and nothing could have been further from the truth.
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1 hour ago, Frigid said:
SE folk must be satisfied with this winter so far. A pretty good snowfall in December with a severe cold spell, snowfall on ground for around a week. And another cold spell in January with notable mins. Only thing that let it down was the mild period mid Dec to Jan.
Its a change from the dull, nondescript winters they get over there.
Yes agreed, apart from the drenching that came after the Dec cold spell. Indeed, some recent winters here had barely any frost on the ground throughout the winter, whereas this winter (well since November) I've lost count its been so many. I prefer it with snow on the ground but I'll take it over perpetual mild days with plants not knowing what season it is. This is good for my garden so I'm happy, but not good for my next energy bill!
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20 hours ago, Don said:
Same here and although I was only 5 years old, I remember it surprisingly well!
I think the record low was somewhere near you in Shropshire
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The best winter of my life, sub -20c was recorded on the deep snowfields near the Welsh / English border, snow drifts up to my back bedroom window and everything paralysed for a month (no school from Dec 21st(ish) to Feb high up in the South Wales valleys.
I doubt that will ever be repeated again but I feel so lucky to have experienced it.
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Cold / Snowy in South Wales.
January 1982
Jan or Feb 1985
Apr 1979
Dec 2010
Dec 1981 was good but the snow (a foot deep at least) melted rapidly as milder air came in from the SW and turned it all back to rain
1979 was freezing
1984 and 1986 had a good snow events but I can't remember the exact months. Pretty much every winter we got sent home from school because of the snow or because they were shut from the off.
Mild,
1989 S Wales
2019 - 2020 (London) and numerous others
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First ice-day for me for several years, temps only dropped to -1.6c last night and peaked at -0.1c about 30mins ago, they are sliding downward again, I love it but these old houses are bloody freezing!
Ps Snow in garden hasn’t melted at all which has helped
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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:
What a pathetic wintry spell here in Berkshire!
I feel your frustration! Hopefully this band of snow makes its way to you, this could slide south later on who knows, fingers crossed for you
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The snow is easing up now, it’s very powdery snow and drifts very easily in the wind that was quite gusty on my walk earlier.
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Just been out for a walk in the snow, simply beautiful, I really wasn’t expecting this. I’d say it’s 10-12cm deep at least and it’s still snowing an hour after I took the photo
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How much effect will this cold spell have on SSTs to the north of the UK as well as in our immediate vicinity?
The fact that there is little or no diurnal solar warming of the sea at high latitudes should suggests some cooling should it not? Especially with the Greenland & Scandi high influencing wind direction?
If so, I hope that any NW sourced weather activity later on in the winter could produce more snow potential?
I remember a NE flow last winter and it only brought snow to high elevations in the north and rain near sea level, so with colder SSTs then hopefully the chances of snow are enhanced?Wasn’t sure where to ask this so apologies if it’s not in the right thread!
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And now the Azores high is starting to appear on some charts, we really are in a terrible spot to get sustained cold winter weather, it feels like a million things have to be exactly aligned to have sustained cold, and if one thing falters or back tracks then it all collapses, and then we’re back to our usual winter dross
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What’s the situation with the Azores high? Could it rear its ugly head and spoil things or are the models in agreement that it won’t?
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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I've often pondered that one myself, Arch, and I came to the conclusion that the coldest part of the day (under the conditions you mention) is an hour or so after sunrise -- until the sun reaches a certain angle, outward radiation will still exceed what's coming from the sun?
That makes sense Ed, thanks
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At first light I have seen grass with a dew cover, but as it gets lighter towards sunrise the dew sometimes turns to frost - why the dip in temperature?
Is it as simple as the coldest part of the day in such calm anticyclonic conditions being the the minute before sunrise?
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Decent
Not a fan of 30c+ temperatures but I appreciated the fact that not one planned bbq was cancelled by rain
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I'm hoping the upcoming switch to a more West/ N Westerly regime of weather will bring lasting snow to the Scottish Mountains. If it does then it will be 2/3 weeks earlier than in recent years (I'm sure it was around 10th-15th Nov last year)? To have it in October would be a bonus
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7 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:
Scotland is now snowless, the sphinx has melted (as documented on Iain Cameron’s twitter and the aforementioned Facebook page).
Bleak.
Cannot wait for a this winter, hopefully a better winter than last. Surprised the Sphinx managed to last as long as it did
Very sad, it’s happening all too frequently these days
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Models continue to signal a change to colder unsettled by mid month, azores high kicked west and ridging north, UK moves on to the cold side of the jet. In the meantime we remain locked on warm side.
I know its early days but do you think this will cool down Europe as a whole as well? Are there any signals that suggest this?
In my opinion, If the continent is in double-digits all the way to Central-Eastern Europe then we can forget about any proper prolonged winter, all we can then expect is short-lived transient cold.
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On 25/09/2022 at 18:35, Norrance said:
You can follow Iain on Twitter and there is also a Facebook group run by him "Snow patches in Scotland".
For those interested there should be some decent snowfall in the next few days particularly for the Northern Cairngorms. Whether it will be enough to save the one remaining snow patch in Scotland,the Sphinx on Braeriach, is very doubtful as lasting snow very rarely arrives in September, the last time being I think in 1976 when it actually did save the Sphinx snow patch, the only survivor that year after the roasting Summer. Incidentally the second last patch this year on Aonach Beag probably melted yesterday or today.
Thanks, unfortunately I’m a social media free zone, so I’ll just have to make do with what I read here and view the WebCams of Winterhighland for my mountain snow fix
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It’s a shame the old Winterhighland website isn’t being maintained anymore - it was brilliant for observing and reading first hand accounts of snow conditions across the Munroes
Iain Cameron (Snow patch researcher extraordinaire) was once very active on it
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30 minutes ago, weirpig said:
One clap of thunder a brief flash of lighting now just heavy rain
Same here up in N12 / N20
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Very loud claps of thunder a 5-6 mins ago after a brilliant flash that lit up the living room with curtains drawn..
Nothing since
Rain is very heavy
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It took 65mins (1605) to reach 30c and now at 1630 it’s 30.2, the peak should be within the next 30mins I’d guess
Humidity 34%
it’s hot but not oppressive
- that was the peak, it now 29.8 at 1725
2018 Beast From the East
in Historic Weather
Posted
All this widespread snow and there was barely a flake in Manchester