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Valleyboy

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Everything posted by Valleyboy

  1. Valleyboy
    I’ve been banging on all week about everything correcting south, but yesterday I must admit I had my doubts. I think it’s a case of the pro’s struggling with the block, which they always do in these set ups. I’ll stick with my original thoughts, that this will be an M4 south snow event, well until tonight’s ECM.
  2. Valleyboy
    Not a done deal. Hold on to your horses.
  3. Valleyboy
    I’ve been banging on about a southerly correction all week. Ignore the GFS, it will correct south, and it won’t be a bowling ball. This is looking like an m4 corridor event, snow m4 south with convective showers elsewhere. ECM will show the way. Anyway, even if it doesn’t work out this time, we still have loads of winter left.
  4. Valleyboy
    Nope, it would just be a northerly, travelling over too much water. Will be rather cold, not what most are looking for.
  5. Valleyboy
    I found the Met office update contradictory and sitting on the fence. They don’t know either, and they don’t want egg on their face. Icon looks encouraging but still a long way to go before this is settled.
  6. Valleyboy
    Mmm nothing wrong with mentioning westerlies if that’s what an individual member is interpreting it as showing. It can be frustrating hunting for cold and snow, but realism must be maintained.
  7. Valleyboy
    5 hours, 15 minutes for toys to be thrown
  8. Valleyboy
    Problem is, the high has never been in the right place, so far. Unless it’s over scandi, it’s pretty useless. Being so far west, is just giving us a feed that stretches over so much water, it’s modified greatly. That’s why temps next week are showing 6, 7 degrees. I’m looking for a scandi high, to generate a true cold spell from the east, not what’s on show at the moment, which would be a damp squid for most. Sorry, just saying it as I see it.
  9. Valleyboy
    Lol. Remember that one well. Had to drive from Waterlooville to Weymouth that day, all the warnings were for Dorset. By midday, the warnings transferred to Hampshire and raised to red. I had to abandon my car in Hampshire due to the snow depths.
  10. Valleyboy
    It will, trust me.
  11. Valleyboy
    As expected, and if the southward correction continues, this will be a southwest and southern snow event, may reach as far north as the midlands.
  12. Valleyboy
    That low is too far north unfortunately, would be a rain event for most.
  13. Valleyboy
    In these situations, you will find things trending south closer to the time, sometimes the Uk misses out, with the snow ending up over the channel isles. Too early to predict where the snow will fall this far out. Snow forecasting this far out is rarely correct.
  14. Valleyboy
    People need to chill. There are so many runs to look at in a 24 hour period, and there are members in here taking each one as gospel! The models are playing with with ideas, and the good thing is they are generally cold ones! This will keep changing, so best not to get too hung up on any one output.
  15. Valleyboy
    Quite right, there is no signal for a Bartlett high. Scandi is looking the favourite.
  16. Valleyboy
    I would advise caution all around with snow depths. I would suggest less snow will fall due to lake effect not being maximised. If the uppers were lower, then yes, we would see more snow.
  17. Valleyboy
    Well, northern Japan, you don’t want the south.
  18. Valleyboy
    I'm not sure the low will be barrelling in at the end of the week as shown. With this kind of set up, any breakdown is difficult to predict until much nearer the time. The met Office don't see any breakdown next week, saying that any Atlantic systems will make little progress. Definitely snowmaking scenarios playing out next week.
  19. Valleyboy
    It’s too far out to know for sure. Hants normally does well in these set ups. I said earlier that spots that currently look favoured will change. Chances are that the places not looking so good at the moment will end up getting plastered.
  20. Valleyboy
    Too far out to look at snow chances. Places that look primed now will change in the coming days. Remember what the uk met are saying, fronts making little progress into the UK. At the moment, and based on history, I would suggest southern and western England and South Wales are favoured areas, but best to get the cold in first. Snow chances will change from output to output.
  21. Valleyboy
    That chart doesn’t look summery
  22. Valleyboy
    Not true, you are probably thinking of a Russian high, which can be a party spoiler. If you look at history, you will find Scandi highs are generally involved in Uk winter freeze ups.
  23. Valleyboy
    The problem is a Greenland high isn’t a guarantee of cold weather, some members believe it’s the holy grail. What we need is a Scandi high.
  24. Valleyboy
    That could fire up the Atlantic, which might be bad news for the UK.
  25. Valleyboy
    A complete dream for cold fans, unfortunately. There is no way we will get an easterly and accompanying uppers that will be acceptable to coldies, without a Scandi high in place. The Synoptics being shown are incorrect. This will unravel in the coming days. There is a chance of a pressure rise to the northeast, and this Is what we should be looking for during the coming week, for the real deal to happen.
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