Valleyboy

There are more examples, jan 1982 was also the real deal, and more extreme than 2018.

That’s a big snow event for southern and southwestern England and South Wales. Depending on speed of low and whether the low stalls, you can be looking at snow depths any where between 15cm and 40cm.

How do you know it’s wrong. You assumed it was correct when it picked up the cold spell!

Erm I haven’t seen any deep fetch winds from Siberia showing, yet.

Get the cold in, then snow can break out at short notice. Plenty of opportunities and surprises.

Unfortunately there’s no such thing. Just too much moderation with the large expanse of sea.

Remember, it gets moderated when it moves over the sea.

Never a good direction, if it’s snow you want. Low pressure from the north will nearly always bring lowland rain. Hopefully we will see a more continental feed later, with low pressure coming from the southwest.

Plenty of time, as this is completely wrong. It will be further south and nowhere near as deep as it’s currently showing.

Yep, looks like EC will drop a few snow bombs in various locations.

It will move through and should give some fun & games.

Agreed. How can a comparison be made when the cold spell hasn’t even started yet!?

We really need the low pressure to move south east much quicker, if it does , then it’s game on, if it stays anchored over the UK, then it’s rain, apart from high ground.

Has it?

Isn’t that why we are on this forum?

Come back to me when it’s raining cats and dogs next week

Lowland rain, hill snow

Nothing changed that much. The problem with northerlies is that they always get moderated so much by the large expanse of sea they cross. I can go back 50 years and remember the same frustration. That’s why I don’t rate northerlies. Easterlies for me. The only good northerly is one that becomes established for a longer period. Thats when lower temps can lock in.

Based on the models that I’m viewing and 50 years of weather watching Experience. I’m not normally wrong but wish I was, as I am a coldie. The thing is, you have to keep it real, no matter how annoying it can be.

My money is firmly on a mobile weather pattern. Cool / cold blip latter half of next week, then milder westerlies to take us into the new year. The cold plunges into the USA are going to power up the Atlantic.

Problem is, a 5 year old would be more accurate with a sheet a paper and crayons if it’s more than 5 days out. After years of ups and downs watching various models in forums, it’s no wonder members get frustrated. How the cost of these super computers can be justified I’d beyond me.

That’s because no one has a clue

Not sharing the enthusiasm for a mediocre northerly. Always looks great on paper but they rarely deliver. I’m looking for future upgrades, to something giving more of an eastern promise.

My main point was about the weather, as this is what the forum is for. However, re our dependence on power, that hasn’t changed much since the 60’s. I was born in 1961, so too young to remember the winter of 63. I do remember all the other winter events, especially from the late 70’s, the most memorable being Feb 78 South west and South Wales, Jan 1982 south west and South Wales. Living in Cardiff we experienced what was probably the blizzards of the century. The thing is, through the 70’s there was little snow, and then blizzard after blizzard through the late 70’s and then through much of the 80’s. Regarding power dependence, I lived through the miners strikes and experienced power cut after power cut, forcing schools and factories to close, so no different from today.

Very blinkered view and incorrect on many points. Look back at the UK weather records and you will see many mild winters registered. You could look at the 1800’s and see 3, 4 mild winters in a row. You mentioned the 70’s winters being cold, not true, there was a snow drought for much of the 70’s which ended in 78. You say beasts from the east won’t happen. What about 2018! To say that snow is a thing of the past is madness, it’s only 10 years ago when we had the coldest December in over 100 years! If you look at the history of the Uk weather, you will see that it’s variable, due to our geographical position.