Valleyboy

All marginal, similar to what we have today, weather wise. Incoming rain with snow on elevation. The uppers are not cold enough, as shown on the charts. Could change closer to the time, that’s if 10 day charts ever become reality.

Its not that they don't understand, its that they have been here before with models backtracking, and that often starts with the delay of any cold.

I only follow the ECM, so can’t comment on the other models. The latest ECM output looks completely plausible and I expect it to be correct. We do have a cold spell coming, but any low ground snow will be marginal. High ground will do well again. My advice is to stick with one model, and view it once a day, this will keep you grounded and help with your sanity. There are too many emotional ups and downs on this forum. Remember, it’s only weather, and with bigger things to worry about at the moment, it puts everything into perspective.

If this winter panned out like the day 10 model outputs, the UK would’ve had a winter colder and snowier than any previous winter ever! I’m giving this winter 4 more weeks, before my attention turns to spring, warmer weather, vaccine roll out etc.

I love the comments. When the Ecm shows a total freeze up, it’s the king of the models. When it shows milder conditions, it’s the worse model out there, and it must be an outlier!

Regardless of any background signals, i.e. SSW, one thing that is rarely mentioned but is a constant, it the earths rotation. This is the main driver. Now if we could just reverse this, we would be in a great place!

There should never been an amber warning.

You are in a good place, there could be an amber warning for the south east.

Although it isn’t great viewing this morning, I would wait before getting too downbeat about cold prospects. I believe we should look north east for a pressure rise (Scandi high). Too much has been made of the Greenland high prospects over the past few weeks, but I believe there will be a westward advance of the Russian high, which will be a game changer.

I commented yesterday that the models took a backward step for a cold spell. This trend is now firmly on the table and if this continues on the next few runs, then we’ll be looking at a much milder outlook. It’s fine to drool over charts that are 10 days out, but it’s going to be a long winter of model watching, we’ve all been here before, when eventually that freeze up that’s 10 days away, takes us into spring time.

If you like wet weather. We need a continental feed.

All the charts are disappointing to be honest. All looking marginal on low ground.

Latest charts underwhelming and a step backwards. I think we’ll get there, but need to see timescale reducing. This 10 day stuff will take us to spring time if this carries on

Rather cold with rain incoming. Difficult to say after that. Very confused picture at the moment.

I'm not sharing the love for the ECM charts. They look ok but we want better than the recent cold spell, which hardly delivered. We want deeper cold than whats on offer tonight, hopefully we will see upgrades on future runs.

There’s been a lot of booms this morning. My advice is to wait for the main models to agree 4 / 5 days out, then confidence can be high, especially if UKMO is on board. You can then boom away!

That’s got SSW written all over it.

Yep, that’s what we want, a true beast with incoming snow.

Past experience makes me think that easterlies will show up at short notice, so 5 days out, rather than 10 days out that we keep seeing on the models. The next seven days of model watching will be very interesting as the models sniff out a genuine cold solution. I think most on here would be delighted with a severe cold spell, at least it would keep people at home.

I didn’t mention detail. Viewing that chart in isolation, would suggest marginality for much of the UK. It could evolve into something much better though.

Unfortunately we would be back to marginality, which is not what most people on here want. The air sourced from the north is always moderated to a point where people get frustrated, especially the southern contingent. A step in the right direction though.

This is the evolution I would expect, my only concern is any knock on effect if the USA goes into the freezer, which could power up the Atlantic. I guess the SSW would counter that.

We would probably have imported colder air by then so 2 - 3 degrees daytime max. The lows could help bring in colder easterlies, so it is difficult to read so far out. You can’t compare it to today’s meh air flow that is still producing rain showers. Different scenario. I would suggest it would be snow.

Looks perfectly positioned.

Interesting to see the models picking up a trend for a channel low. Something to keep an eye on.