[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

35 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Interesting

The musing about scandi heights started back on the 3rd of January buddy some 13days ago with yourself and Battleground Snow and I think even a week before that I discussed this evolution with Catacol so if the GDSM products can nail this period for a second time this winter around a month before it happens it just adds even more evidence to this ever growing meteorological science used for long time forecasting! The hard bit is getting the lag periods and timings right. The 15th was correct it’s a waiting game for the 29th. There’s been so much to learn this winter!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, Crackerjack said:

She was short then Scott  

 

soz I’ll get my winter  

 I’ll just reply with as I think we’re derailing the chat n will get into trouble soon!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, That ECM said:

Think I would have visited.

I tried! Believe me! A week away when I could see the potential I tried to get the time away from work but it wasn’t enough notice unfortunately! Gutted! She bombarded me with pictures and videos on WhatsApp! we split 2 months later…. Think that was the bringing of the end!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

This cold of 2018 was impressive. Still at the fourth of march I was able to skate. The 28th of February had a record cold tmax. Which is in our warming world quite remarkable. 

It was a fabulous spell and it involved nearly all the British isles! The east and south east and Scotland especially hit hard with showers from the North Sea and a normally barren south west and south wales got the mother of all channel lows giving 40-50cms in some parts. My girlfriend at the time from Abergavenny measured 49cms! I was jealous as I was back in Yorkshire at the time!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

You mean 2 weeks? 

Yea typo sorry! 2 weeks earlier!

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - although it would be about 3-4 weeks earlier or even less assuming it gets there in the end! - still a stonker though even if we could repeat it in mid Feb.

Yeah a complete typo! Haha! I’ll edit now! And yes agreed it could very well be the main course and has just as much  background support if not more than the current cold spell had!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This is more than interesting! It’s starting to remind me of 2018. I’d take that 2 weeks earlier!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March.

Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.

I completely agree and I agree about the seasonal as well Aaron. They all point in the same direction February and March. It’s traditional for a Nino winter but we have the added help coming from a weakened vortex and perfect timing from the tropical cycle into the western pacific off the back off a Nino like atmosphere already in high GWO states! I’m interesting winter this one even though I’ve had no snow yet? You must have done well last night into today?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

58 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Not often you see this type of anomaly lurking about Scandi... that's a decent signal.. here we go again !

I’ve been waiting for over a week to see this! Scandi then retrogress to Greenland. Others who don’t have dyslexia can put more meat on the bones with charts. I’ve tried to explain before but I’m sure yourself and Tamara have covered it all properly anyway!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Well that 12z gfs run is just what I hoped to see and on the 28th with a day for cold to rush across the 29th prediction is starting to look like a half decent call. Usual caveats it’s miles out and it’s just a brave punt obvs! I’m no expert!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

The radar looks a good 30-50miles south of the models which may bode better for South Yorkshire later on! I guess we’ll see!

[Model discussion highlights]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm just starting to see some signs of life in the extended,

Would be nice to accelerate towards that solution, ecm does get to phase 7 faster.... So extended EPS may offer some further hope tonight.

Control, attached, alongside couple of the best gefs members, also attached is the mean anamoly.

Let the next chase commence!

Look at that date mate 29th for the change! Surely not 2 in a row! Fits in perfectly with retrogression into the back end of the first week of Feb! 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013385

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Yeah, I agree, there’s nothing happening till the end of the month earliest(cold persuasion)

Yeah 100% this is sign posted by events in the Strat, a move into MJO phases supportive of mild Atlantic weather and ensembles rock solid from the 20th. It’s the following week that will be fun to watch as we see a much better Strat profile, an impending +EAMT event and the tropics quickly moving thunder storm activity into the west pacific. Do we go North East the retrogress or straight North West to Greenland. For me it’s North East then retrogression. Time for chase number 3 this year!

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm interested to see how the retrogression is going to try to shift the tpv away from Greenland as it looks like a beast ATM,

Perhaps some assistance via Atlantic wave breaks?

I'm flying out of the country late on the 28th so the 29th fits well for the next spell of cold weather

A better start profile and movement into phase 7/8 of the MJO will take care of that quicker than you’d expect looking at the models (even though as you say it looks like a beast over Greenland)

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm just starting to see some signs of life in the extended,

Would be nice to accelerate towards that solution, ecm does get to phase 7 faster.... So extended EPS may offer some further hope tonight.

Control, attached, alongside couple of the best gefs members, also attached is the mean anamoly.

Let the next chase commence!

Look at that date mate 29th for the change! Surely not 2 in a row! Fits in perfectly with retrogression into the back end of the first week of Feb! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

I wonder if we can throw this tpv lobe SE with residual height's(white box) to the NE of it in future runs,the lobe already looks negatively tilted.

It’s possible. The evolution looks like heights up through or to the west of the UK migrating East, then West to Greenland. Similar to the 2018 evolution when the western conveyor belt hit a brick wall out of nowhere. The chart you posted is certainly an early crumb towards that

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Now we’re seeing signs of the wedges advertised by an atmosphere that in all fairness is still in a high GWO orbit. A case of not taking models at face value all the time. We could see an extension of the cold for a day or 3 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Tentative signs on the eps of scandi euro ridge which should in my view push into scandi when we get the movement into high amplitude western pacific phases. 
 

Very encouraging!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

why does it stop there and not carry on?

It fizzles out after two more frames so nothing else to show 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The 18z icon shows the shortwave the met are talking up 5-10cms about. This works its way south east giving snow to both north and South Yorkshire. The bigger amounts for North Yorkshire but this is still too far out for any degree of certainty! Shows what can crop up however!

Some very bright echos on this. It only last 4-6 hours at most but the intensity will mean a decent snowfall for many in these areas

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well I said I’d wait for the 12z eps to check out rogue runs and on a hemispheric level they have delivered 

whilst the low spread persists around low heights over Greenland, the remainder of the polar profile looks very broken vortex with plenty of amplification and high level blocking. . Of course that Greenland vortex is a problem for us but it doesnt necessarily persist there into week 3 and the mean vortex is actually west of Greenland so that’s already a positive. 

whilst the breakdown days 8/10 is a poor end to the weeks chase, I made my peace with that a couple of days ago 

the next chase comes into view - maybe a height rise east of the meridian which then retrogresses 

Encouraging! Every day there’s something that throws out a clue to this period end of January into February. A height rise east of the meridian fits MJO 6 and a high base state of the GWO retrogression as tropical convection hits the West Pacific at decent amplitude!

Chase number 2 at the starting blocks waiting for the gun to go off……

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

At pains of wishing all our lives away and a cold spell right on our doorstep am fascinated right now between 

1 Something like this from 06z GFS - which in isolation - you stopped any of us and said - What kind of winter was this? Would most probably say - Vortex in control Strat-Trop connected, ridging into Europe - the worst of Winters.. etc.

2 Vs - Right now we have an imminent cold spell, granted it has been a long, long , model weary countdown, but the anomalies and progression are probably the *best advertised since 2010 ( Note not same synoptic). And, that we are now into the realms of shorter range modelling tools.

Then, we have the contrast of such a long lead to eventuality, coupled with the last 10 days of Jan being a period where the regimes shift, yet, everything points back to re-load ( seasonals / MJO / AAM / Strat), Nino-expected, QBOe, it really is a winter where everyone on here has been on a roller-coaster.

The point being - it's a new roller coaster, it is not one we have entertained - the Canadian warming perhaps heralded that given it's strength back during Nov, significantly beyond the envelope and very rare in terms of historic dynamics. That's on top of everything else mentioned.

And now, a cold spell and it will be cold - brutally so in some places and noteworthy - is it a stick on for the cold counter part snow - no, and it never would be - this was always the way in any of these winters we herald, there was not wall to wall snow EveryWhere All At Once. And to tonights 12z another variation - EC slamming Scotland with snow has now dipped 300 miles south - we are in a Nowcast scenario.

Do we have tentative beginnings of Scandi things ahead... January and now may be the appetiser - the real deal may be Feb.

Great post! I’m fascinated to see if Scandi heights do come to pass as another test of long range forecasting tools. I’m with you as well. February has the potential to be the main course of this winter 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps for the peaks but majority of population it’s dry…

ECM precipitation charts are awful. Looks better on the higher res models mate.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

ECM doesn't look bad for snow Tuesday as well

Decent wind direction.

 

Yorkshire look like doing fairly well out of this shortwave! 

I can see where the met get 5-10cms from!

id be concerned if I lived in the south but troughs etc can be picked up inside 48hours for everyone 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

50 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

GFS ensembles are interesting at 96hrs for the first time they are many that go below -12hpa some as low as -16hpa. These were not there earlier and at such a early timescale This is for Redcar at 96hrs

Yeah I spotted this it’s what I’ve taken away. It shows there are possible upgrades to come!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, Rexx said:

Got one of these I can put up for you.

that’s the community spirit! I knew I could rely on my Rotherham brethren!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Have you got anything planned for the big day Scott? Hopefully someone in the village has put some bunting up with your face on.

I live in Rotherham mate we can’t afford bunting!

Someone might craft somet out of the local rag!

2 minutes ago, Rexx said:

What kind of dog is it? I can help if it's a big one.

Oh it’s a big dog hahaha! It’s a Labradoodle! Full of ADHD!