Scott Ingham

January 10

7 minutes ago, Zero Visibility said:

I know mate, thanks for the reply It was just tongue in cheek. Oh and thanks for all your input on here, have learnt a lot.

Hahahaha I hope we both get the snow mate and thank you for the kind words! Your welcome to pm me if you ever have any questions or wanna learn anything you don’t fully understand

January 10

1 minute ago, Zero Visibility said:

How much can I trust the GFS, I'm right in the sweetspot.

Whether it be the GFS or any other model now an awful lot when it comes to this stage in all honesty! Inside 48 hours then maybe! It’s all very exciting however!

January 10

7 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Wales and Midlands get the pasting from the snow on this run…would even catch a few inches here

Fantastic. It can stay there

January 10

6 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Oh mate, you can't use the name yourself!

I just did! Hahaha!

January 10

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

For anyone interested this was GFS output 6th Jan for the 15th

Vs todays 12z for the same date.

Trends are your friends in between wobbles

Scott Ingham day still looking good! Although could be a day or 2 out in regards to largest impacts!

January 10

Fantastic post by Tamara highlighting the fact the angular momentum and the gwo phases never really bottomed out which is something we looked for in terms of longevity. If we can stay in a cold pool then the height rises to the east and back west forecast as the next stage to look for look bang on the money.

lets see it play out like next week has done from musings 3 weeks ago

January 10

4 hours ago, bradymk said:

Quite noteworthy imo that GFS is persisting with the increase in heights again to either our west, north / north east day 10 +

Especially given it's tendency to revert to 'normal' at that stage and given that only a few days ago, it was showing a return to flat unsettled pattern at the end of GFS runs.

Yea this next build of heights suggested by gdsm products is gaining a little traction. Only hints though atm but fun to watch

January 10

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Agree this is about the limit of the semi-reliable at the moment. UKMO and ECM have been consistent with the cleaner profile to the ridge in Greenland, which probably does mean that GFS is making a mess of things here. Add GEM to the UKMO and ECM camp this morning, at T144 (the GEM is actually a very good run):

It is at this point we lose the long reach northerly and things get a bit more convoluted - and the models go their separate ways with that, but what’s changed this morning, is that the cold air seems more likely rather than less likely to persist through that messier evolution T144-T240. Which gives some chance of persistence, and, snow!

Indeed this is very snowy this ecm run somewhere with cold air still over us at day 9!

January 10

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Midlands South I reckon..

I agree that’s my best cast only because historically I’ve seen so many of these track further south

January 10

Just now, stewfox said:

In some of these battle ground scenarios height is always useful.

I'm off now to take up my position for next week. Happy model watching.

Hahahah sounds like a plan Stew!

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I think a slight downgrade in the synoptics / high latitude pressure has increased the risk of very disruptive snow events.

For longevity I agree but as far as snow is concerned it’s fantastic! And next week is still on course for a cold and snowy spell

January 10

Wow fantastic runs again this morning! Someone is going to hit the snow jackpot but who?! All to be decided and should be fun watching the snow line rise and fall each run

January 9

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I second what everyone else is saying in that your posts are very insightful Scott and always greatly appreciated! Who cares about those who can't appreciate posts, they're irrelevant. We're all here for the same reason and that's to discuss our beloved weather.

As you can imagine work is quite busy at the moment, but looking at the models it seems like around T120 is a key point at the moment. It's whether that initial push of heights towards Greenland is sufficient to set-up that northerly which then precedes the frontal rain/sleet/snow at Day 7. GFS consistently fails with that initial push and the resultant boundary of rain/snow is further north. The majority of the other OP models have a stronger initial push of heights towards Greenland which manage to hold, allowing colder air to get in place before the slider low moves across Southern UK. I feel we are on the right side of the boundary at the moment, but that may well change so will be interesting to watch.

Really appreciated Ben!

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Told you to say 14-16 approx rather than 15th. Scott, don’t worry about the doomsayers, still a week to go and look at 18z compared to earlier runs …..the game is STILL ON. You made the call, you stick by it….due to the science you’re learning and for me it’s a hit no matter longevity which I’m sure tomorrow will look mire potent than today…

BFTP

Thanks mate I’d understand it if I was the met office or something but I’m an amateur finding my way!!

January 9

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Blank em bud.

How do I block on here? I’m trying now

January 9

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

Come on, don’t be childish, I really enjoy your content you post here, so please, don’t let anyone make you go…

tell you what, in comparison with the wetterzentrale forum this place is like a ponyfarm, over there we fight till blood, it’s like a battlefield between coldies and warmies right now

and still, it’s just weather…

Thanks again for the kind words mate I also enjoy your content btw you’ve brought something good to this forum this year

January 9

8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

That will be such a waste, just ignore the baby wetting in here, it gets to me too but you and the other knowledgeable folks in here is what makes it the best weather chat on the net

Mark thank you I just have a lot that goes on in the background in my life and this hobby is supposed to be an escape and an opportunity to learn something and then you get personally attacked ……

January 9

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Sorry don't often post off topic, but Scott 99% of us are really enjoying your posts, we'd be delighted if you kept going, don't be put off by the jealous few

(Mods I appreciate you may choose not to keep this up but wanted to give others a chance to support the post rather than use a PM)

I really appreciate that thank you mate! That’s cheered me up a bit I did think there was a little jealousy involved but I don’t wanna stir owt else up. I’ve pm’d who I need to. Again thanks for the kind words

January 9

1 hour ago, Phil Blake said:

Could be one of these times the gfs finds a signal. Looses it and brings it back closer to range.

I didn't really get the @Scott Ingham day thing as you had mentioned a few times the cold could land couple of days either side as you can't pin down the lag exactly. Anyway keep it up.

I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning.

January 9

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

It does make sense as the strat (and ultimately trop) vortex shifts back west.

Makes sense from a tropical perspective mate as well. An AAM surge and quick move towards phase 6 of the MJO would make sure of this but tbh it looks and feels 10 days too early for me and so it’s messing up with the current pattern

January 9

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Bang on.. the evolutionary trait of the gfs after 108/168.. is somehow disturbing!!.. it deviates in a Bipolaric slant…. Then by way of narssasism, goes from zero to hero….

Yeah how often do we see model chaos once a new signal is picked up and rushed through? It happens a lot!

January 9

1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

Great to see a model play with it as an option. Last nights pub run had a look at scandi too.

Even earlier on in the run it moved towards the ecm solution; it’s not as simple as a bit of the ridge collapses to Europe and the spell is over. If remnant heights remain to the N and the jet stays well to the south then someone’s going to get pasted. This run is showing us how that could then translate to a much longer spell, even though the ens haven’t really been keen on the idea.

Brilliant to have your input on here Scott. It’s an open forum so people are gonna have their own views but don’t let it stop you sharing your knowledge and putting your time and rep on the idea to actually make a forecast. The more high quality posts we get on here, especially ones which offer direction on the future based on evidence - the better the experience is for everyone.

Yeah it is! It’s something we discussed I think a week ago with input also from Tamara Catacol and Met4cast. I won’t let anyone drive me away mate. My input is all about 2 or 3 weeks down the line and I’m being called arrogant because of a running joke about Scott Ingham day on the 15th I’ve made more bad calls than good just like everyone else that is amateur and I may seem excited about things playing out but what some people don’t understand is when for 3 years you’ve been learning and perfecting a science and just one run follows a script that you had in your head after hours of learning it’s rewarding! Anyway I post for newbies myself and for my own learnings and passion for the weather! I genuinely think some just don’t like to see other people get better at something!

January 9

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Just had an hickup,....really?

i love this chase ha ha.

This feels like it’s picked up on the next stage of travel into Scandi and has rushed through the outcomes forgetting we’ve got a large blocking high in Greenland!

January 9

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

Don't get leaving this forum!

It’s tempting mate!

I will just post in the regionals I think tbh from now on

January 9

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

We've learnt hard lessons over the years that you dismiss a run at your peril. Time and time again I've seen one run pick up a trend, it looks isolated at the time only for others to follow. We need proper sustained heights over Greenland. If we don't get them I'd bet my bottom dollar that cold will unravel at record pace

Well that’s your opinion and time will tell but for me looking at everything from all models and signals I’m confident for next week

January 9

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair there's a bit more to it turning colder with chance of snow from 15th through to 22nd than just gdsm products.

We have had a good attack on the strat from a warming event not too long ago, we have the Canadian warming and we are in an El Nino winter, not to mention the met office have been hinting at this for a long time. As well as a few other factors at play.

Mate every man and his dog have been hinting at the middle of this month being the time when things get much colder with chance of snow. Just they don't harp on about it every 5 minutes trying to get the accolades. Constantly changing the criteria of 'accuracy' themselves through carefull wording.

Even I predicted this from before Christmas but was it skill?? Was it chuff it was just me scanning the available tools and data and coming to an educated guess.

Just give it a rest it is becoming very tiresome.

I haven’t claimed anything of the sort like that I’m an amateur forecaster who’s managed to guess a date 3 weeks in advance that would go wrong usually 99/100 times. Your educated guess is exactly what I’ve done so I don’t know where your getting this from tbh?

January 9

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's several op runs in last 48 hrs. GEM and Jma last night and 2 runs on the bounce from gfs. The ensembles on 12z gfs also. Cold still favoured, but the trend towards something milder has actually gained traction in the last 24hours. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's certainly deserves discussion and comment

An op run is one run out of a lot of runs. No disrespect but unless you see a trend in the ensembles for a mild outcome then it hasn’t really gained traction. In the last 48 hours we’re talking about 1 model in 4 showing a crap run depending on it being 0z 6z 12z 18z and this is perfectly normal in the lead up to a complicated cold pattern. The point I’m making is yeah discuss it if you want but it’s not really strong enough evidence to suggest we have a trend. That’s misleading. Im a balanced poster if I saw big swings in the ensembles I’d call them out myself. Anyway everyone has a different way of doing things I’m just trying to help newbies out as forecasting not taking means and ensembles into account is for me a mistake looking forward

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Posts posted by Scott Ingham