Scott Ingham

January 8

11 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The latest synoptics strongly favour Northern regions with the South at mercy of milder incursions.

Clearly nowhere near as good as the models were showing a few days ago with everything watered down.

Compared to 48 hours ago they have upgraded run to run! They looked a lot worse over the weekend. These are amazing charts you must be hard to please!

January 8

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Getting close to moving onto the regionals later in week as imbyism seems to have crept in recently.Just hanging on to cold? really peeps

I have noticed the same hahah! These models are great for Yorkshire and that’s all that matters for me atm and you I’m guessing lol

January 8

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The problem is that we’re seeing a north based NAO!

Please tell me you now aren’t happy with the ecm chart that has come round full circle to cold again! There’s lots of snow on that ecm where I am in Rotherham and there’s still more room for upgrades it’s a fabulous morning!

January 7

Guys things are about to become VERY INTERESTING for us by this time next week.

Ive seen enough in calling at least 1 week of notable cold and snow from next Sunday/Monday onwards. Will start to look at snow chances by the weekend!

January 7

12 minutes ago, smhouston said:

The white patch right bang of the middle of the UK with no snow is where I live so bound to be true

In all seriousness I'm not going to worry about the finer details like precipitation yet. It's clear though things are going back on track with the ECM steadily improving. Very positive day to be honest. Still think there will be twist and turns and will be compromises at some point, but at least the date in question is still the date things are revolving around

Get the cold in, and in these sort of setups the snow will definitely follow. These next few days model watching are going to be fascinating and tantalising

It’s the model not being able to handle the Pennines it creates a shadow on it it always does this pal

January 7

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Let the upgrades flow.

Yea how often do you see a pattern get set, fall away for 2 or 3 days then come all the way back around to what was stated? I’m seeing Greenland heights upgrading and most importantly prolonging. The messyness for me will go. The shortwave went progged 48 hours ago around the 12th and I feel these on this run will because as it gets close and momentum is upgraded due to it not being modelled very well we’ll see the pattern become more robust further north. The reason I think this is true this time is due to short term upgrades on our uk high. It tells me it’s not picking up on +AAM very well untik we count down to the day.

January 7

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Early EPS ensembles show a rather large upgrade in clustering, far fewer milder members..

Best cluster we’ve had for the 15th so far in my opinion!

January 7

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

I'm not an expert on teleconnections / MJO etc (still trying to learn!), but isn't the suggestion that the MJO may progress into phases 4/5 later in the month, which per this page are generally associated with reduced prospects for blocking, and higher temperatures for the UK?

I don't know what the typical lag is on the MJO though, and whether I'm interpreting this correctly.

Almost all the model runs here seem to be suggesting an MJO in phases 4/5 around the 15th. Would that be soon enough to be responsible for a breakdown in the blocking and a return to milder conditions around 20th-22nd?

Happy to be corrected by far better experts on the teleconnections if I'm completely making a mess of this .

It would suggest a rise in the jet stream north but as Met4 cast says it’s only 1 aspect of a momentum budget and this budget currently on forecast hasn’t dropped all that low and is forecast to rise again suggesting a possible battleground snow event period followed by what I believe and Tamara and Caracol and I think M4cast to be a rise then in pressure over scandi before another rise middle of Feb in Greenland.

Anothher option is a complete relaxation of the pattern followed by another cold period in February.

All in all not bad at all to see out winter!

We also have a ssw potentially occurring at the end of this month which adds even more interest or complication going forward

January 7

Just now, Met4Cast said:

haha bloody hell.

yeah exactly this, they were poor in terms of the lack of deeper cold runs compared with previous outputs, the mean however was still broadly good which was a little odd. I don't think this is resolved yet despite this evenings outputs and we do need to begin discussing the uptick towards the 20th across all modelling, even though it could potentially be pushed back (GFS 12z Det a good example of how that's possible).

I thought as much mate that’s why I didn’t even seem fit to ask you as your in top echelons of ability to read some charts! Yeah I have noticed that around the 20th but atm I’m not overly worried as I believe this will be a battleground period of which traditionally very low 850s wouldn’t be an ingredient anyway

January 7

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Sorry, I think you misunderstand. You said M4cast didnt say the eps were poor...my quote is what M4cast said this morning, its not my opinion its what he said.

That’s all very well but it also has to be said in context. He doesn’t mean poor as in it’s an end to the cold spell and a return to above average temperatures he means it’s poorer than a previous set with more runs trending milder. M4cast is an experienced member I’m sure he wouldn’t look at those ensembles and means and denote them being “poor” for cold weather as it’s the opposite. I think for newbies this is important. Thanks

January 7

5 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Looking at the ensemble means is always very valuable. Identifying the similarities and assessing the differences between the leading models allows the establishment of a baseline of expectation based on a more centred range of the wider ensemble envelope, which can’t be a bad thing to take into account, irrespective of any divergence in the longer term.

The later divergence is also of interest for the same reasons. The models will inevitably diverge over the longer timeframes, but again there will be commonalities in their evolutions, which are worth noting.

There are also of course the changes that occur between runs of the same model, which are useful to observe for the purpose of identifying trends.

In addition, over time, with experience, we develop an understanding of the leanings and biases of particular models in certain situations.

This is a great example of why it’s very worthwhile keeping an eye on the ensemble means.

12z GEFS yesterday for day 13 vs 12z GEFS today for day 12.

Yesterday’s loss of Canadian Arctic heights and merged PV - dropped in favour of today’s maintenance of heights, Greenland ridge and well-separated lobes of the PV, and as a result, downstream a deeper Northern European trough, its core low heights held back further west.

A very different perspective may be derived for the potential longevity of the forthcoming cold spell.

Over the next few days, keeping an eye on the development of these aspects will inform our expectations for the Northern Hemisphere profile that will underpin our setup for week 2. It doesn’t matter even if the means for later in week 2 are indeed way off the mark right now.

Studying the way that they gradually converge towards a consensus first with each other and then with the operational runs is valuable not only for the enjoyment of it, but also both as a learning exercise and to hone our interpretation skills, particularly for this specific type of scenario, and of course, precisely because the models are struggling with it in the longer timeframes.

Couldn’t agree more

January 7

Just now, KTtom said:

Here is what he said.. The poster was correct.

"There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS."

In your opinion. Not mine

January 7

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Perhaps your right but there's no denying any ppn is beyond day 10. I guess let's get the cold in first and see what happens. Overall a very good day model wise

Get the Greenland high in and it’s inevitable! The colder air is earlier on other models they are playing around with timing. The pattern itself is being brought forward

January 7

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Much improved and synoptically stunning! But uppers are still delayed yet again to Day 10

Forget uppers at that range! Look what’s just happened to tomorrow uppers. It’s the bigger scale we’re looking at and it’s upgraded in the 120/144 mark. Todays been a good day

January 7

Miles better run from the EC12z slowly slowly! Catchy monkey!

January 7

ECM coming onboard! Never in doubt was it this winter period

If someone gave you that ECM144 hours chart in October for the second week of January would you take it? I know I would!!

January 7

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks for coming back.. so at least I’ve learned that eps suite and ecm ensembles are same.. funny how same data can introduce different views….

anyway let’s hope for no ambiguity with the 12z eps suite and all are same in thought calling them crackerjack bonkers!

Yeah it’s the same it’s the ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction System. This won’t happen I don’t think for at least another 48hours. Wednesday could be a crackerjack bonkers day!

January 7

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Look for pressure rises to the ne Tamara suggested.

Yep! North east then back to scandi is the potential track to take us to the middle of February. Potential only though…..

January 7

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Posted 9 hours ago

There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS.
is the post I was referring to from met4cast

Bloomin heck -6 as a high on the 17th across midlands and south

I really would not be calling these poor at all….. it’s normal fluctuation within a chaotic developing pattern with lots of support for a period of cold weather, if your hoping for 1963 then I’d call it poor!

The daddy of all the means is the 500s that John Holmes posts and these are as good as it gets really!

I struggle to see how anyone on this forum can be remotely negative currently on what’s showing on the models off the back of fantastic background signals…

January 7

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Liking the control Ali

Scandi inbound?

Yes here we go….. Iceland first….

January 7

Just now, kold weather said:

I think thats also a fair point. sometimes when looking at all the eye candy and then you see something not so good its easy to lose heart. In truth most runs from the GFS ensembles will be cold through to day 10, and sure, most aren't as good as what some of the other models are trying to do but there is probably only a couple that I'd describe as being outright 'bad', most have at least some redeeming elements to them.

That’s it yeah and when the cold is in it’s all eyes on the higher res models. I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t receive a good fall of snow from this period of weather! We are just trying to work out how severe and for how long and in my opinion the background signals back a period of cold far longer than models show right now. Tamara summed it up in beautiful language why that is.

January 7

Just now, TSNWK said:

Hello. On eps suite.. there was a post this morning saying that ecm ensembles were poor @Met4Cast I think.. I thought the ecm ensembles are the eps suite? So a little confused as you state they are very good.

unless ecm ensembles are different to eps suite

He didn’t say they were poor and they are far from poor. There were just a few more runs that went milder but the vast majority show what we’ve expected for over a week now. I really wouldn’t be worrying too much.

January 7

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Yep certainly can't argue with that mean up at day 8,

But Tamara's post was also interesting regarding not expecting the extended ensembles to have a very good handle on things at range at the moment

Unbelievable mean!

January 7

Just now, PiscesStar said:

I can vouch for that not one single flake in this south Eastern corner.

You have a chance of maybe 11 flakes tomorrow

January 7

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z geps eject the n Atlantic ridge rapidly through to the pacific side days 10/12. Leaves us in a cold/cool zonal pattern

People say this every day

the eps suite is more important than the op days 8/10. The op is important days 5/8. We want to see if settle down in line with the Ukmo and gem

This is the most sensible post today, if anyone is new to this game that last paragraph from Blue is really excellent advice. The eps suite btw up to now is very good! We’d take it any winter!

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