Scott Ingham

January 9

Just now, Snowmut said:

No sniping mate...Factorama!..This morning I posted Gem and Gfs ens... both showing crap outcomes and was called insane!.....If that's what you need to do to get a ticket to the nut house then God help us all!

They don’t show crap outcomes though snowmut. Repost them now and let people decide. There was more support for cold than mild 15-22nd. I’m not sure what you are getting at?

January 9

Just now, winterof79 said:

No need for snipes its a model watching thread.Take it to pm.

Thanks mate this is why I post more in regionals the past 2 years and not on here because everyone is far too emotional and sensitive!

January 9

2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Theres a fine line between being over confident and coming across as arrogant, simply just dismissing other peoples views when they show charts backing up that point with a sweeping remark cutting them down is a bit low!... but there you go each to their own!

One gfs op isn’t a chart to back up a view though. An ensemble pack that shows 60% support for a run that is a different story. It’s important not to get caught up in one run out of about 200 over several models. That’s the key point I’m trying to make. If you look at all available means for the 15th to the 22nd does mild or cold have the most evidence to support it?

January 9

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Either MOGREPS, UKMO and the ECM/EPS all have this wrong and somehow the GFS det is correct despite the GEFS being a complete and utter mess with no discernible signal, or the GFS is just rather useless.

I know which camp I'm in. We'll see on the overnight runs, can't discount the GFS but the evidence is certainly against it.

It’s a case of looking at its emsembles again vs ensembles for all the other models (which are out and very good) and if the gfs ensembles again show little support it’s just another run in an atmosphere that has a shed load of things going off. Like you say onto tomorrows runs now

January 9

38 minutes ago, LRD said:

Scott - got to challenge this. EC46 has been consistently showing a mild week 22 Jan. It's also been consistently showing colder potential after, too, which I've pointed out most evenings on here too.

It's a model from the respected ECMWF and this is the model thread.

It's funny that people are allowed to look miles in the future for cold but we're not allowed to look at what might happen after the cold (I was actually looking for signs that it might extend into the week of the 22nd)

The irony is that I've been one of the most steadfast on this cold spell happening when others have panicked and given up at the slightest hint of things going wrong in the day-day runs!

I’ve never said it won’t turn mild after the 22nd LRD I’ve been focused on a pattern change to snow and cold from the 15th which is now coming into the semi reliable. 15th to the 22nd has been a big win for those who use gdsm products to predict this some 3 weeks ago. The 22nd is all to play for but we do have support from the met office. This week is a watching brief. Like I say all to sort out is severity and longevity

January 9

18 minutes ago, Paul said:

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions.

Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table.

Oh I agree this morning I posted that a cold spell with some snow was nailed on and that the only thing to sort out was how severe and how long. That’s the bit now coming into the reliable timeframe but I certainly feel confident considering the 60-75% ensemble support depending on if you look at GEM or EPS ensembles that some of the horror runs showing one day of cold and transitional snow is highly unlikely

January 9

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

If folk scrutinize enough output they'll find a breakdown.

Wether that be the EC46 which moves about all over the shop or any other individual projection.Better to look at all the available output and make a decision.

100% yeah this is all emotions and past disappointments scewing proper analysis of what’s going on. All the available data points in the right direction bar like you say the odd run.

Incidentally this icon looks a great run it’s the first one to pull away from a trend of west based -nao and another step towards the nirvana charts shown a week ago look at heights rebuilding up the eastern seaboard like they were forecast to do before

January 9

Just now, That ECM said:

No, they read @Tamarapost and went with the shuffling high. The lady has been awesome. shuffling high or not. Although she has made me start to look and read what she talks about and often my head hurts. When I joined net weather many years ago I didn’t post in here for a few years until I had an idea of the models. Going to be a while before I reference what she uses but hey the journey has started.

It’s taken me 3 years to get my head around gdsm products but once you’ve got it you’ve got it! For 9 months straight I’ve been able to forecast 2 or 3 weeks ahead and get the macro pattern correct so it’s an important bit of learning if you have any questions on anything you don’t understand your free to pm me and I’m sure Tamara wouldn’t mind either as she helped @Met4Cast to get a fantastic understand of this newish science as well. It’s a learning forum after all! Inclusive to all backgrounds

January 9

32 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Extended cluster 2 looks very similar to the extended METO update.. interesting times ahead.

It has to be said that the met are very bullish about heights to the north west holding on. Especially when there is no sign of this on any of the models for between the 24th and 6th of February. Are they thinking when the cold sets in it will be harder to shift than the models are letting out? It wouldn’t be the last time this happened

January 9

1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Hopefully we dont go mild and await a new direction as we don’t want ‘Bites of cherries ect’

Yeah I understand this. However the atmospheric set up that gave clues to this spell 22 days ago looking back at when I first posted about you could argue should still be followed with consistency as it’s looking ever likely that the gdsm products used have been very helpful this time so I’ll stick to a certain level of confidence again and if it goes wrong as ever look and work out where and why for next time.

January 9

35 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Looking at next week on gefs anomalies.We can see the cold air has moved well south into the UK by,yes,15th so right on schedule.

The second and third images the 850s and mean sea level pressure anomalies for day 10-- the end of next week(uk/Europe view),

In spite of the ups and downs in the differing operational runs this Wintry pattern continues to be shown.There looks to be some real snowy interest next week,but where will this be is to be decided nearer the time.

Excellent summery Phil for newbies that is

January 9

8 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

If I get snow and cold from 15th to the 23rd and couple that with the 5 days of snow on the ground I had early December then I will count this winter as a triumph. Regardless of what happens in February.

Yea for uk standards that’s a more than reasonable winter! I’d be happy with one big snowstorm and disruption and a second helping in February. The rest of winter can do what it wants then!

January 9

31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Clusters this evening are not helpful, just one cluster in both T120-T168, and T192-T240. As much use as a chocolate teapot, or maybe the EPS have it nailed.

T264+:

These headed into post-block territory. Cluster 2 has an exceptionally southerly jet which could allow the UK to hang on to the embedded cold. Cluster 3 has another go at shifting the block to Scandi. Cluster 1 could be interesting initially in this timeframe if there is cold air in place.

Cluster 3 is my best guess. Battleground with cold just winning out then high pressure pushing north and east through the uk into scandi with us keeping any snow and cold within that high pressure a best case scenario. Alternatively we go milder for a week before cold again

January 9

Just now, Bogman said:

Interesting times ahead, and right on the coat tails of the hottest year on record.

Agreed it’s been a throughly interesting winter to see unfold and perfect for any of us trying to learn. Still waiting for that first op to show signs of a height rise into scandi or Iceland but we are miles away yet still

January 9

15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while. Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February the Altantic won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd's suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.

If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!

January 9

46 minutes ago, Catacol said:

UKMO excellent, GEM not bad. ECM looking very good at 192, longer range to come. And I have returned from work to possibly the greatest MetO text update in many a year. GFS the odd one out this time around and consigned to the naughty step.

Loved today. It was sunny, clear and cold. Gritters out and the usual media overhyped top temperature for the day undercut by about 3 degrees. Reckon it didn’t break 2.5 here.

It really is game on. Having quite a detailed Met update back the signals I have stuck my neck out for has brightened things further. If only heating oil was a bit cheaper I’d be grinning ear to ear.

I have to say i have that same feeling of being on the right lines this year seeing things play out it’s really reassuring! I can’t wait for next week!

January 9

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

No we can't just bin output showing us what is physically possible given it wouldn't take much to get to GFS/GEM point on current UKMO/ICON solution. Weather forecasting is not black and white it is a probabilistic assessment.

You can make a guess based on odds tho if it’s 80/20 in favour of other models.

January 9

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Let's officially consign the GFS to the bin.

It’s always been in my bin it’s great for picking up long term trends but it’s positively schizophrenic in the 120-192 phases

January 9

41 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Why is everyone shocked like this weren’t being model, it was being model/trending on the GEFS yesterday. And a few did mention this onl to be dismissed

And rightfully dismissed the means are spreads eps etc are rock solid. Yet again it’s a reaction to a rubbish gfs run

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GFS det is way above the ensemble pack and verging on outlier territory, majority of the GEFS remain below the mean line.

No worries from me. Onto the ECM!

Yep people need to breathe

January 9

The mean is fantastic the ensembles are rock solid! What a great day of model watching to come! See you all for the 12z!

January 9

Just now, That ECM said:

Good luck with only the south coast missing out this far out. I think you’re missing my point but hey ho.

Good luck to you to

January 9

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

But you have said it’s great for us in Yorkshire, great for us in the north. Those are best served in the regional thread. Please don’t think I’m writing that based on me living in Bournemouth.

let’s say Yorkshire was looking like rain and someone was from Aberdeen and was saying wow it’s brilliant for us?

As I say we need to see what unfolds. There’s enough in the various output to cause doubt.

Living where you live will always be a lot harder to get cold and snow in. For what it’s worth these low pressures nearly always correct south nearer to time.

ill give you the fact the very far south or at risk of being on the wrong side of cold but for everyone else it looks fantastic

January 9

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yes cold is nailed on snow is nailed on but the detail is not i.e. where how much and when are not especially as now we see ourselves facing a messy complex synoptic pattern.

Unless people were expecting weeks on end of cold like 1963 people should be happy! A week of cold and snow in this country is a big deal

January 9

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

GEFS/GEM and now the ECM has moved North. I think you are misreading my posts slightly I am not claiming the cold has been shunted away just that the dynamics now look slightly different with more influence from the South West / sliders as opposed to textbook blocking. The issue we run into (which could also be our fortune) with such a pattern is the proximity of milder air to the south. Temporary milder incursions aswell as a more robust push cannot be conpletepy ruled out I would like the GFS/GEM to move towards the ECM later today. The ECM00Z shows where the sweet spot is with the push from the South West. This is a finely balanced, changeable synoptic of which to say is nailed on this early is not particularly realistic in my view.

For me the cold is nailed on snow is nailed on what isn’t is who gets the most snow and for how long will it last. The chances of us in northern England being too mild for snow next week is very slim imo

January 9

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I hope you’re right. The professionals have low confidence and looking at the various outputs you can see why. When someone has made a forecast and been strong in their wording about it, I’m not sure they take a pragmatic view of all the output if they’re showing a different outcome.

I would say that there is doubt what will unfold and I will cheering on the euros.

Doubt from what professionals exactly? I’ve seen no doubt other than the met wording how they always will do a week out

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