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Polaris

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    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The public must be wondering what a ‘cold weather Alert’ actually means? According to BBC a few days of chill then ‘Quote’ Helen Willets latest TV forecast “Temps eventually recovering later next week” 

    So that’s 2 days tomorrow and Monday of temps of 4-6c then near on double figures approaching later next week. 
     

    Other countries must laugh at us 

    5C0A28A0-506F-4EF6-A889-8230225C1079.jpeg

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, CharlieBear9 said:

    Exactly what I thought, but some seem to enjoy moaning about people more instead.

    I'll be sure to moan, ramp and chat about those awful raindrops that landed on me today instead. Its a weather forum with 100% human being comments, not the raindrop that fell on my garden. 🤔

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, johncam said:

    I have commented a few times and got shot down for saying what the charts are showing. The real cold is still at the end of the rainbow but from this weekend it will still be dry.

    Same here, As long as LA LA Land charts give folk posts to quote in comparison to 63, 2010 have know chance to reason with them. Yet the cry and toys will happen 80% of the time. Quite ironic really. 

    • Like 3
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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

    Just take it one piece at a time. . . It's a '47, '63, '79, '81, '85. . . di di di dee! :drunk-emoji:

    🤣

    Tomorrow waking up will be another depressing MAD thread with folk wondering why the signal for a 63, 2010 has a disappeared even though it was  A DAY 13 CHART

    Never ending cycle... 

    • Like 9

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Still after a many year reading a viewing the MAD thread I still cant believe the OTT - 1963 repeat / 2010 type posts at a D13 chart when only 10 hours earlier showed nothing of the sort.

    Its our hobby I get it, but its also equally comical. Its like a complete blind mask is on to ramp, only to fall off a couple days later and a big old cry from the very members that truly believed a D13 chart would verify. 

    The excitement for a chart on 15th January is just bizzare to me on 3rd January. 

    Is it really the weather thats a hobby or a never ending chase? Of course anythings possible but come on... for anything remotely to get excited about has to happen within Day5

     

    • Like 1
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Well, of course it's tongue in cheek to make the 1963 comparison, as we are all aware that the GFS fun and games are deep FI for now.
    For serious forecasts it is indeed wise to stick to charts within 120h.

    However, with the background signals as they right now, and with what we've seen in many ensembles over the past week, this extended GFS scenario is at least more likely, better supported than the one you showed for mid December, which was an extreme outlier in its ensemble that went against the expectation of a more mobile pattern setting up mid December.

    Thats a brave call at 13 days, We've had convincing background signals at a shorter timeframe along with stonking ensembles lots of times before in winters. You only have to look at this thread early this morning to realise how flips happen. 

    But history tells us that the 'not cold' or 'not so cold' flip usually wins. 

    As you say anything serious HAS TO COME INTO the 5 day (120hr) 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

    I am sorry John but you just cannot post a mean chart 16 days away and expect that that will be the outcome when there is so much happening just 6-7 days away🙂

    Whilst a 16 day mean chart may seem insane.
    So does a D10 model run chase that we’ve been in since beginning of December. 
     

    Rewind 14 days from now and we were in a Christmas blizzard. Reality was one of  the mildest Christmas’s on record. 
    Away from the highlands and northern Scotland (groundbreaking that) 

    I’d go with John’s chart as is a higher probability! 

    • Like 2
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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, SunSean said:

    Nothing to look forward to weather wise at the moment as we have the most boring weather type- 5c to 12c and overcast skies! Lovely jubbly! Lol. Only plus side is that it will be a bit less wet. 13c plus and dull is at least pleasant to be outside in, despite an unfortunate lack of sun and 4c and below is at least pretty fresh and even pleasant if the sun is out, below 0c is fun if it's snowing but this 5c to 12c and overcast malarkey? It just bores me guys! No probs with people who enjoy that and it may even save a bit on the heating bills etc but I'll be damned if it isn't boring lol.

    Amen, Absolutely nothing Wintry on the horizon apart from a D10 chart. UK remains the mildest in Northern Europe whilst 200 miles east has already had 2 snow events in the past 4 weeks. 

    Despite the MAD thread few posters promising another 63' or 70 blah blah blah - Deju vu anyone??????

    Cringe......

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Weather-history said:


    How quick people forget....someone posted this, this year

     

    One of my biggest weather ick’s in the summer months. 
    Folk scream and cry that we are the new Sahara after 10 days of no rain. 

    Makes me cringe every year. 
     

    It’s like the the soaking wet flooding autumn/ winters of the U.K. are vanished from memory. 
     

     

    • Like 4
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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Years ago this 'cold' spell we're in would be a standard thing for late November...we've seen so few frosts and relatively cold air in past Novembers the bar has been completely reset. Then again model watching can get your hopes up which was never the case back in the 80's/90's...sometimes wish we were back in those times without all this technology.

    Ah the good ole days. 
    Agree, this cool spell would have been a fart in the wind in the 80s/90s 

    Then social media and technology took over and we are now naming 50mph wind gusts calling it a storm. 

    • Like 4

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A real shame that the LP forecast on Thursday is now heading into central France. Snow chance bounces back to zero as always. Hopefully Kent can get a scrape but even that is hoping 

     

    Can’t get my head around how folk in our vicinity are happy in the MAD thread that the LP that could have brought our region some white ppn is going south into France.
     

    Unless an unexpected disturbance/trough pulls through it is bone dry and cold. 
    At least a respite from the deluge of past weeks. 

    • Thanks 1
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