Polaris
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Posts posted by Polaris
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12 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Current radar against the models for the same time . UKMO certainly under estimating as are others too . Certainly will be a radar watcher this one . Still in the game I think .
Apart from the odd light rouge showers that have moved a little inland over wales, the PPN charts seem to have sorted pretty well and not bad in my opinion.
Arome very well in fact.
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Definitely going to be one of the driest/snowless proper cold spells in terms of cold temperatures I can remember. Kent May get some snow Sunday for our region.
Don’t see any white stuff falling here through the reliable +5 days
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1 hour ago, Seasonal Trim said:
My thoughts on this current cold spell are if we're not getting any snow, then let's get the milder air back in. If I'm going to have to run my heating, then let it be for a lovely snowy couple of days at least.
With you on this. Had to keep my heating on since back from work at 4pm - house is just freezing if not.
If it’s not going to snow then I think I’d rather the Atlantic milder weather back (never thought I’d say that) But expensive energy costs over write that this winter!!
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50 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
I fear you're right DJ. The 12z models confirm it's mainly a Norfolk event. At best a couple of flakes elsewhere. Think I'll eat the carrot I had ready for the snowman's nose.
Cumulative precip by 10.00 Friday Arome
NMM
Confirmed my the latest radar Blessed.
Showers already swinging out to sea after a brief encounter inland ooop north:
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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:
There is a worrying trend in the MOD thread today
Is it to comment and worry about every individual run that shows the cold spell ending?
Hi lassie,
Ive chosen not to visit that forum for a few days.
This is a very cold dry spell with maybe the odd disturbance for a lucky few towards coasts.
Nothing “snowy” in the reliable but the “10 day chart” posts in the MAD thread get nauseating after a while.
Take 9 days ago, posts with apparently the SE to be buried today, it was clear crystal blue skys!!! Vicious circle.
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4 minutes ago, lewis028 said:
Hi all, great to be back so early on in December with actual wintry weather and not looking for a brief cold spell at day 10! The artic air has made its self known today and looks like we could potentially be locking in the cold for a good period! With the cold in place and the surface temperatures tumbling, surely the snow will follow..
Hope so mate.
Great to see the frost set in at 6pm on the dog walk this evening.
Looks very dry for our region in next 7 days, at least it isn’t the Atlantic onslaught. Hopefully something late next week snow wise if the cold air stays in place.-
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New met office 10 day tend. Brilliant explanation from Alex.
Regarding any snow next week here are the met office thoughts:Less likely, most likely!
history tells us these scenarios bring it into France, which Alex mentioned.
After viewing charts many years I have to agree. Just look at 2013 when the Channel Islands / northern France were plummeted.
hopefully if the ppn from a channel low doesn’t happen then we can pull in from some conductive Easterly’s
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Nice to have the Atlantic wet borefest back off. Don’t see any snow in the reliable for our region though apart from windward coasts.
At least it’s not raining so welcoming much the seasonal crisp dry spell for the next 7 days at least
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Mate in Breda across the puddle, sporadic light snow on and off showers. Meanwhile only a 200 miles west sits in cold drizzle/crud for the next 4 days.
couldn’t make it up
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Miserable dark morning. Steady cold drizzle dampening everything with a brisk breeze.
The worst kind of weather in this energy crisis.
At least with the mild rain I didn’t need my heating on.
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Astonishing people calling the snow line boundary the Midlands 6 days away. 90% of the time the closer we get the further track/corrections south of any LP slide.
Could be Northern France that sees frontal snow.
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1 minute ago, Snowy L said:
You might want to check the month in my post you quoted, you got the wrong season.
Haha, yes you’re right Snowy.
was Jan 2010Hands up
I skipped 3 seasons.
Need to slow on the evening
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54 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
ECM ready to drop a Jan 5th 2010 on us at the end!
Need to stop this 2010 redux on a + D10 chart
It is not… Absolutely nothing like the depth of cold we experienced in 2010. Posted before but I’ll post again. On this day in 2010 with heavy frequent snow. None of the models bring this kind of depth into the reliable:-
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26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Remember that this model doesn't go that far out as to what the ECM,gem and gfs show,plus you can see kinks in that flow to the north on that chart i have circled,this would bring the colder uppers in an unstable flow.
Hope so mate. Just feeling a little underwhelmed- whilst the NHF is eye watering, none of the major models bring 850s for snow away from mountains in the reliable. Just hoping it’s a slow burner.
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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Those 850s -8 are still way off. Need a real push for snow to lower levels.
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8 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
The Highlands would be buried at day 10 . . .
I should think so considering they are above the clouds.
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15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Ooh er, Missus... Ten-Day trend and the S-word!
Temps too high over weekend early next wk with snow chance on mountains. Northerly flow later next week (useless here)
Much prefer an easterly
Better than the Atlantic crud for sure.
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Just now, Dj fart said:
Agreed, although I've not yet seen many people saying it's going to be a 2010 repeat. "Best synoptics since 2010" isn't quite the same thing. Personally, I can see too much going wrong still but I'm enjoying the analysis from more knowledgeable people than I!
Not true, go back over the last 20 pages and there are plentiful. Likewise the more knowledgable members giving a more realistic stance on things.
Whichever is being said… 2010 it isn’t. 2018 imo either. -
On this Day 12 years ago. Freezing cold with heavy snow showers. This forecasted easterly is a wimp compared. We struggle to get -10 850s even out of reliable days 8-12. Could be a slow burner but anyone comparing or calling it a 2010 redux/esque is brave:
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3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:
So here’s the update on the 18z pub run
The op is in the boozer, in the corner have a steady few, it’s on it’s way
But it’s brother is on his way home. He’s been chucked out.
Because he’s PARA lytic
Boom
Nice. 13 days away
Imagine if that were T48
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On 21/11/2022 at 22:19, hillbilly said:
Not quite,it hardly rained between March and September,it was always highly likely we were going to get a wet October and November but at least it isnt Autumn 2000.
Was always highly likely that the rain would balance out. Always does
Hey presto… here we are in November with soaking rains past 6 weeks.
This is why I never understood folk moaning and whinging that it hasn’t rained for 3 weeks in the height of summer.
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Really torrential rain here. Feels like it hasn’t stopped raining for weeks.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Interest for possible change to something different i.e. colder and drier more than 10 days away, to be expected.
Everything is Day 10 since I joined this forum in 2019
Reality = Wet and Atlantic +7 Days.
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Raining since 11am here.
torrential rain past hour.
loads more to come this week and weekend.
Welcome to a British winter.
SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Fingers crossed.
Chichester running east NW through, Surrey, Crawley, South London up to Essex.
Hope you guys get some snow, well deserved.