Battleground Snow
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it's good our options currenly somewhere between a little bit cold and snowy and cold and snowy -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The mean is MUCH better at 180 compared to the 00z run, the jet tracking much further south. Expect big swings ahead. Best guidance is to watch the EPS in my opinion for less drama in FI -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmmm, the control and mean improve the pressure around Iceland in the early stages too, hopefully the 00z runs were just a small speed bump -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
However the para sticks to its guns with the pressure at a lower latitude, lots of entropy going on at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pressure stronger around Iceland on this run compared to the 00z, will we swing back to the faster progression to a Greenland high here? Edit: even bigger difference at 144 -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps a battleground with mild air to the south trying to get in and cold from the north east pushing down, with snow in the middle (midlands)? -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold sneaking around the back and coming in faster from the north east on this run, will it make it though? -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, I think it would have went on to regress with the low pressure to our south -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon getting a bit close to a UK high for my liking, it is quite a bit different from its 00z run so maybe no need to worry yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The para did start to show these quicker evolutions in FI before the regular GFS, so maybe it could be strat related as the para has a better handle on events up there? -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS continue to strengthen the heights to our North on every run. 168 v 174 What a week ahead we have of model watching. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There are a few stunners around the 300 hour mark, some serious cold pools on some of them, hopefully see a few more in the morning including the OP -
Cold Spell Discussion
Battleground Snow replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Possible if it comes down heavier than forecast, probably wouldn't hang around very long though -
Cold Spell Discussion
Battleground Snow replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I was thinking that too, but it is modelled to move more SSE than east -
Cold Spell Discussion
Battleground Snow replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cold for the foreseeable according to the GEFS, mean pulled up at the end by some extreme mild members too -
Cold Spell Discussion
Battleground Snow replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, the para has been building pressure in that area faster, will be interesting to view that when it comes out shortly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No drama's so far on the GFS here at 135, looks good and should be another stellar run as we head in to FI -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The WAA in eastern Europe is the only annoying thing.. probably won't make a difference long term -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tbf it looks alot like the EPS from this morning. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This showing on the para for the 4th of Jan too. I'll let the more knowledgeable than me decide if this will split or not -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Battleground Snow replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still going strong at the end of the run, the pattern seems to always want to re-amplify over eastern Canada. If this keeps happening could be a long period of below average temperatures