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Battleground Snow

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Everything posted by Battleground Snow

  1. Battleground Snow
    So close @Scott Ingham at 252 needs a little shift south east still, and keep Iberian heights low
  2. Battleground Snow
    Hopefully the icon has gone off on one, sometimes it seems a decent model, but looks wrong in the semi reliable compared to ukmo and GFS at 144. Approaching the key 192-240 timeframe now @Scott Ingham , fingers crossed griceland
  3. Battleground Snow
    GFS looks a smidge further east at the early stage to calm the fear
  4. Battleground Snow
    This is what could put us into a west based NAO, Russian high definitely foe in this set up, backs the pattern west. Need it to do one east or north
  5. Battleground Snow
    It will be very interesting to see if your call of a griceland high comes to fruition in the first week of jan, the 06z was close. Will be watching the 12z GFS at 216 hours intently to see if we can get the potential Greenland high to shift south east by a few hundred miles.
  6. Battleground Snow
    The OP and control are very similar synoptically, but the difference for the UK is massive is terms of weather felt on the ground, I think there will be some emotional highs and lows over the coming days until this comes into the reliable, Btw good post snowking, hopefully will stop the relentless over analysis of the 850mb temps at range.
  7. Battleground Snow
    I don't think he's a fan of North Westerlies or northerlies, only easterlies usually does the job for Kent , not bad for us Midland folk though
  8. Battleground Snow
    Here we go again, usually you wouldn't take to much notice of the GFS at this range, but the way it's consistently modelled the area around the ESB and Greenland has been very impressive recently.
  9. Battleground Snow
    Looking good... It's why we shouldn't get hung up on uppers until we get within 96 hours
  10. Battleground Snow
    Trough a tad more south east here at 168 and it looks like it will have another go at a Greenland high towards 216 again.
  11. Battleground Snow
    Would have loved to see a ECM day 11, it's definitely following the GFS path from earlier
  12. Battleground Snow
    Much improved ECM at 216 compared to the 12z, Greenland high incoming?
  13. Battleground Snow
    It's the fun of the chase, look at this chart for new years day, would have killed to have this last year.
  14. Battleground Snow
    Very quiet this morning considering the output, GFS is very close to something special, won't take much adjustment east of that "true Greenland high" I have been impressed with the consistency of the GFS, can't remember so many runs where it churns out similar output past 192. Ukmo looks decent too, will be interested to see the ECM at 192, I suspect it will move to the GFS again.
  15. Battleground Snow
    Hopefully when it comes to next week uppers gate will be a distant memory. Icon has the trough further south, but not east yet.
  16. Battleground Snow
    Hi @bluearmy, how far do the 06z and 18z ECM runs go out to and I don't suppose there is anywhere you can view them without a subscription?
  17. Battleground Snow
    Nice, it's why I think we need the heights in Russia to move east so real cold can sneak round the back
  18. Battleground Snow
    Nice adjustment east of the high... Re the Russian heights, I'd rather they moved away east too. The chances of a link up with Greenland heights would be low and high risk, don't want it sitting in Southern Russia / Ukraine again for weeks blocking cold uppers from reaching our shores
  19. Battleground Snow
    Ecm 120 Nice amplification
  20. Battleground Snow
    Based on historical patterns, you would say the GFS will model the trough as more of a shallow feature nearer the time, which would mean colder uppers, but less precipitation. Ecm will be interesting, I think it will be Inbetween the gem and GFS, which may be a very good outcome for coldies.
  21. Battleground Snow
    It looks like the Russian high will be back around the turn of the year according to the GFS mean. Can it be friend rather than foe this time around? On a positive note this may help with the potential SSW.
  22. Battleground Snow
    For those worried about uppers at 180-240.. we have seen a drop of 2 degrees within 72 hours for Xmas eve.. not impossible for them to come down again at longer ranges, plus this is just one model op run. Let's wait to see what happens once we bring this into the 72-96 hour range with higher resolution short range models before we proclaim it will all be cold rain.
  23. Battleground Snow
    The lack of energy over North East Canada is a positive.. like @CreweCold says, if we do get unlucky with the trough not clearing enough south east of the UK, then we should be 3rd time lucky on the next wave of amplification.
  24. Battleground Snow
    A half way house between the GFS and ECM would actually be ideal in this scenario
  25. Battleground Snow
    I guess we would want something like p19 then Nick? High further east around Greenland which nudges the trough further east too, which allows us slightly colder uppers over UK
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