Battleground Snow

Further deep cold creeping into Northern Scandinavia... A good trend to keep going, if we do manage to tap into the north east at some point

GFS looks more amplified to me than the Ukmo still at 144.... Should be another good run.

Sorry I should have been more specific... A few more have better amplification near Greenland.. still need them to improve

Indeed and more importantly there are a few more ensembles following the OP compared to the 00z run... Could improve the long term mean slightly going forward

Deeper cold filtering into northern Scandinavia on this run

How it ends. Would be at the top of @bluearmy envelope for cold prospects?

Icon looking nice and amplified at just 126 hours

Nice control run for NYE. Still lots of potential outcomes via ensembles as others have mentioned. That low out of the ESB is providing big swings in the models. On to the 12z runs we go!

Wow, what a time to sleep through the 4am alarm! Always feel like something big Is brewing when the overnight runs upgrade cold! Come on ECM , join the party over the next hour!

Got to give credit to icon and ukmo, they modelled the Azores low getting cut off first and also had the low on the ESB further west too which gives us better amplification. Can we finally get big improvements at a relative short range, when it usually goes the other way? Anyone else setting the alarm for 4am for a quick glance at the icon and ukmo?

Will it topple into scandi or become a UK high?

Next frame will be interesting at 168. Ecm split the low at 144?

*insert randy marsh computer gif* Ukmo Looks even better than the icon at 144!

It does just stay far enough west! Can't complain about this for xmas day in my opinion... Can't wait for the Ukmo shortly

Slightly better heights around Iceland, due to the low to our SW... Need that low over Greenland to stay further west for a better sustained heights though.....

Thanks for the reply... I am guessing when the MJO is not active, the la Nina imprint should be dominant, but I have seen some posts saying the atmosphere is acting more el Nino like, rather than la Nina. Very confusing

The MJO is really struggling to gain any amplification and looks like being in cod for a while... A question for the more knowledgeable, does having the MJO in cod for the rest of December lower the chances of blocking in the Northern hemisphere?

A wide range of outcomes in the ensembles out to 180... GFS struggling to resolve movement of that low out of the states.. I wouldn't rule anything out untill we get ECM and ukmo down to 144 for the Xmas period. P16 is good again.

The low under the under the Azores high at 192 might help with a 2nd phase of amplification later on... I feel it's gone wrong after 144 though

The further west that low goes up Greenland the better!

Not much change on the 06z icon from the 00z, the low in the states is further west, maybe it will track further west up Greenland to help with amplification in the Atlantic later on?

So a swing back to a colder prospects on the 0z runs so far.... Generally I usually find the overnight runs tend to swing away from a colder outlook for some reason, so this is encouraging for coldies. Here is the 144 Ukmo. Not A bad chart... We need the low near the Azores to prop up the high and the low near the ESB to intensify and move north or north west to help pull the high directly northwards... Still time to squeeze a little snow for some parts for Xmas Eve and Xmas day... I think the ECM will look a lot better than the 12z in an hour.

Still a fair few decent ensembles out to Xmas eve (180 hours) P16 for example... It will be interesting to see the 0z Ukmo at 144 before being too disheartened by the 18z GFS

The jet taking energy slightly more south south East in our locale too? Small changes can have a big impact further down the line

Thanks Mike! Yes some battleground Snow would be great around the festive period.. I live a mile away from the centre of England at 185m ASL, so have had fair few dumpings of snow over the years where the Atlantic meets the cold from the east. Only one hour until the 18z icon! (Hopefully)