SP1986

I thought even the GFS is moving towards the ECM solution this morning, and we will see this reinforced on the 6z I think.. the mild air is still fairly in the balance in northern parts, if the low gets corrected south, which actually is fairly possible, then we could see easterlies again rise over the low for northern areas. The southern areas look like slowly emerging from winter, but the outlook doesn't look to me like a steadfast way out of wintry weather, but it does move in that direction. cool/cold and unsettled is what we will have to contend with now, but it's something we probably need in order to kick start Spring growth.. but settled weather is moving away now (we did actually just have period of fairly settled weather in the north), and may not re-emerge for some time if the ECM is correct, carrying on the pattern of long lasting patterns.

-0.7C already, there will possibly be record breaking minima tonight if it continues to fall at this extraordinary rate (which it will).. it's quite remarkable for April, and no other opening April in my lifetime can boast 6 consecutive air frosts... no year even comes close.

Unfortunately no, not an option, it has to be in an unheated shelter.. even so, it would still be possible to carry it out were temperatures in double figures, but alas nothing on the horizon in terms of that yet here.

Another set of runs where the warmth stays out in the unreliable timeframe, of course it (or something similar) has to arise sometime in the future. This morning all model up to 144 hours are showing the extension of cool, possibly wet, and in the case of the UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM, wintry weather potential also in the form of sleet/hail/snow showers from N/NW. As yet Spring is looming large, but it's looming too far away. The 6z GFS basically keeps northern areas (north of roughly Birmingham) in a similar state to now, except with more cloud and rain/sleet.. generally cold by day and night with temperatures failing to reach double figures, the south however fairs a little better with temperature reaching double figures, maybe the seasonal average for a very short time. I'd consider the outlook to be fairly similar to what I'd expect on an average February day, so by that token, we're still really looking at a wintry outlook.

The GFS 18z now wants to extend severe frosts to 96 hours... is it over exaggerating, or are we looking at an extention of exceptionally, possibly record breaking cold nights in the west?

The daytime temperatures have been higher than they could have been, but minimum temperatures of which I have never seen the likes of in my life for this longevity are set to continue I feel.. Well it's interesting but extremely frustrating... I have lots of seeds I need to plant but just simply cannot do it while the weather is like this... I need daytime temperatures around 12-14C (which is the average for the time of year), and minimas of around 4-6C to enable me to go ahead with this, and even this looks unlikely in the forseeable future.

I wonder if the future few days runs will extend the easterly even further? Or perhaps turn the flow northerly, I think cold is certainly here to stay, and it becomes very confusing because the models pull out a milder synoptic situation, and it's constantly put back.. so you wonder when the situation is actually going to verify, or if it is actually going to verify at all? it must be a fairly tough one for forecasters in a way... the weather certainly makes mugs of us.

I think our area is going to be locked in the cold (and perhaps snowy) conditions for a long time yet.. can't say how long, but I think into May is just about conceivable. To be honest I'm not looking forward to what I'm confident will be another very cool and wet summer! Obviously though one persons bugbear is another persons delight!

I would like a 2004 style summer, generally warm, but with plenty of humidity and thunderstorms.. great growing weather for the garden too.. If I have say what do i think this summer will be like.. well I think cool and wet like the last few, as the jetstream get caught over us and perhaps maybe more south. I definitely wish for a warm summer, but we're in a different climate territory now, and that could mean a series of cold winters and cool summers - as much as I abhor the idea. for what it's worth, I'd happily take a cool or below average summer if it was almost wholely sunny.. but that's very unlikely, as cool or below average summers are almost always synonymous with rain

I'm in full agreement with you here, the models are consistently pushing the milder outlook back into the unreliable timeframes, and it seems at the moment any milder weather coming is akin to chasing a rainbow. The GFS 6z certainly latches onto the idea of prolonging the cold spell, with perhaps, as you say some frontal boundary snowfall, which could be fairly intense and heavy across parts of Northern England, should precipitation come into the mix later on. It does look like frosty nights for the forseeable future, perhaps severe in places where snow settles.. Only in the far southern fifth of the UK do I see anything akin to Springlike, or anything vaguely resembling mid-April.. To my eye, if we discard the usual overly progressive warm ups, the outlook is still decidedly wintry for most. So of course personally, I'm very sceptical that there will be any truely average Spring weather in April, I'm not sure when that will come in all honesty.

There does seems to be a definite trend away from milder weather now, well there is a slight warming up with double digit temperatures, but still below average.. with night frosts. I can't say what the future holds, but I think we have to entertain the possibility that below average temperature might be here throughout this month, and beyond.. it's a reasoning that is right to be criticised however, it is not being challenged by the unravelling season at the moment. if we continue with frosts throughout the rest of the month, then Spring growth may be as late as its ever been.. bare trees into May would be a record I think? Anyway musing aside below average for the forseeable future is the headline I think.. and I did suspect this may be the case after the models did something similar in mid-late March. I would expect similar FI warm ups to be discarded for a colder regime this month, we're just on the wrong side of the jet streams and undercutting is rife as had been said in previous posts!

minimum temperature on Saturday, probably exaggerated this time, although the GFS has got some of them right recently, admittedly, but I doubt that this time.. I feel the 12z has actually got a more realistic look to it, it's now binned those southeasterly hot airflows in FI and replaced them with something that, in my opinion, based on the pattern change about to occur, looks more likely. Atlantic lows with ocassional weak ridges of high pressure mean a typical pattern for our shores; aka, rainbands, followed by sunshine and showers, and overnight frosts. In general a cool outlook as well with temperature average to slightly below generally. longer term, perhaps increasing suggestion the jetstream will stay south? I do think were overdue an exceptionally cold year as whole.. even if it's not the most popular outcome!

The NAO as I understand it, does not cause the GFS outputs, but the NAO is a product of the model outputs, therefore, it could easily change back to negative (-NAO) and to my mind that's in a way what the GFS 12z moves back towards. As to whether we move to a outlook showing average temperatures, well I think that's 50/50 at the moment. The 12z shows pretty much below average temperatures throughout! We can't really say its going against anything though as it actually may be correct!

This is quite remarkable..

March is historical this year, many records have been beaten, all cold based records.. to say they have been dropping like flies would be an understatement.. at the bottom are a list of records broken. March generally started dry with chilly nights but mild days, in fact it was rather springlike.. you'd say March was fairly typical for the time of year.. the odd frosts, temperatures near or above 10C. From the period of the 10th to 13th, 3 nights of harsh frosts arose, harsh for March anyway, but this time temperatures took a tumble. In mid Month there was some heavy rain but soon after the drier weather came back, and with some nights escaping frost altogether. The 22nd was a notable day not only for suppressed daytime temperatures, but also some record breaking March snowfall, which having fell over the space of two days, culminated in some large totals.. in my case, 24cm of level snow. The days thereafter were cold, nights often held just above 0C due to cloud cover, however the easterly wind was a notable feature, which windchill temperature measured around -7C owing to the origins of the icy blast. From the 25th March, daytime temperature started responding to the strength of the sun, and although well below average, did feel fairly pleasant in shelter away from the light breeze. The nights however delivered some extraordinary temperatures for the time year including another record breaker on the 30th March. The month itself had very few precipitation days, but any rain, and snow amount that fell were fairly significant. All in all, an exceptional March for cold and snow, and historical locally, beating some very long standing records. The fallen records are indicated by by the mark * The fallen records are based on my own 15 year record set. Below are the statistics for my weather station during the month of March Mean Maximum: 7.5C Mean Minimum: -0.1C* Overall Mean: 3.7C* Monthly Rainfall total: 35.5mm Rainfall days: 5 days Max rainfall in one day: 11.9mm (16th March) Total Snowfall: 24cm* Snowfall Days (snow falling): 2 days Max snowfall in one day: 21cm (22nd March)* Highest daily maximum temperature: 11.4C (5th March) Lowest daily maximum temperature: 1.5C (23rd March)* Highest daily minimum temperature: 5.9C (8th March) Lowest daily minimum temperature: -4.5C (30th March)* Days with Ground Frost: 25* Days with Air Frost: 16* Days of falling snow: 2 Days of lying snow: 8* Thunder days: 0 Temperature frequency breakdown Maximum temperature: 0.0C to 4.9C: 4 days 5.0C to 9.9C: 23 days 10.0C to 14.9C: 4 days Minimum temperature: -5.0C to -0.1C: 16 days 0.0C to 4.9C: 13 days 5.0C to 9.9C: 2 days Compared to the Colwyn Bay average (81-10 average = 7.2), my average comes in at 3.5C below the Colwyn Bay average, making it a well below average month Notable Records Broken in March: - Coldest mean minimum - March overall mean - Total snowfall - Snowfall recorded in one day. - Lowest daily March maxima. - Lowest minima/all round March temperature. - Most airfrost days recorded in March - Most ground frost days recorded in March - Days of lying snow

The models are consistently showing the same thing run after run, but the truth is the mild continues to stay out in the unreliable timeframe. I'm aware the models show a gradual warm up but to be honest I just don't buy it, not until all models jump on board. In fact I'd say there was an equal chance of true cold conditions continuing on throughout April. No real sign off change yet unfortunately

Well the GFS wants to bring the cold air flooding back in with, I presume, locally record breaking consequences as the-10C at 850 males another appearance. Though this time I suspect it'll be out on its own. That said any warm up is still a fair way away!

The other thing that has not been mentioned is that it may be very dry come mid April when you not just factor in high pressure but the low humidity associated with it. Western Scotland may have some extraordinary scenes come that time.

Well April may not necessarily have any warmth, we will have to see. For now though I'd ignore FI runs like the GFS is showing as it really has no support. The cold is very impressive but I think come the end of April, perhaps the dryness will steal a few headlines.

Still no chance of mild weather for the forseeable future... however those who criticised the GFS temperature predictions were largely correct. GFS predicting -6C or -7C at midnight.. nowhere near currently. I suspect the GFS is exaggerating some of the patterns in the longer term (the colder patterns), however it will remain cold well into British summertime. I also think the ECM is exaggerating the high pressure ridging from the Azores.. fine lines in this one, but so balanced there's no room for change at the moment, in the broad pattern.

The problem with these minimum temperature is that they were being shown for the last few days, and didn't materialize, so it's doubtful they'd occur.. and also once maximas rebound to around 7-8C it's unlikely it'll fall to -5C anyway unless you're in a frost hollow - the nights are simple not long enough anymore. But looking at the pattern, if indeed a northerly does occur after it could be there for a while, and then of course back to an easterly (northeasterly), as had happened in the past. Generally I can't see any hope of getting to the seasonal norm (which for early April is around 11-13C), for a long time..possibly into May. There's also no guarantee of course that staying in the same pattern as we have now will drag warm air in over time, certainly there's as much chance we maintain this well below average outlook for a while. Not that I'm championing what the models show, but what other option is there at the moment - there just isn't one to be honest.

I can't believe it.. that's all I have to say to be honest.

We do have to entertain this fact that this cold could be locked in for a long time yet, I would consider May, and whilst that seems unbelievable, this pattern is well and truly locked in, for a while yet. I was wondering if it's possible that Meteorological Spring would not happen this year at all.. and to be honest based on some outputs, this won't be far from the truth.

To be honest, anymore here would be the worst thing.. I'd make it into work, but not out.

Just across the border in Heswall (Wirral), looks like we were under the same stuff as those in Mold and Buckley and the general Flintshire area... none by the coast though really.