SP1986

My garden is at serious risk.. given the type of plants in the garden. That said snow is thermal cover, so would protect against severe cold and frost... but the damage from snow comes from the weight of snow on branches etc.

I agree with your reasoning, but the GFS has got the distribution of cold totally wrong if that's the case!

The one thing that strikes me though is the GFS had definitely run its course now, despite the snow, the GFS continues to pump out unrealistically low temperatures later into next week.. by which time the snow will largely have melted.. so there is no reason for those temperature to feature.

Some strange comments in here today... given the band of snow is coming from the southwest, despite the easterly wind, there will not be a rain shadow over Manchester, not a significant one anyway.. saying were only going to get 10cm really is hair splitting.. especially considering we struggle to get that in winter normally.

As we know with snowfall amounts, forecast often turn out to be rather conservative. The BBC graphic showed rain and snow interchanging here, I thought.. "I dont think so"

Looking out of the window and thinking.. this is the last time for a while I will see green... ironic really given the time of year.

I suspect if things are right as they stand, more than that. Yes, though I recall time when Wallasey and Birkenhead had much more than Heswall.. but that's usually when it's not borderline between rain/snow. I think this time though given the estimations; 10cm in Wallasey? Which would cause havoc for sure.

To be honest Jesus, it'll be a nightmare trying to get to work from Runcorn to Warrington if the models are correct.

one things for certain, Heswall will get the most snow in Wirral as we always do.. height advantage. If the estimations are right, then 20cm is possible here, which would break records for March snowfall!

I would go as far to say had these synoptics occurred in early January, they would probably surpass the intensity (although not the longevity) of some of the 'great' winters of all time. Obviously it wouldnt surpass the great winters of the 20th centur, like 1947 and 1963 in a broad sense because they lasted so long but perhaps in severity (you get the idea)

Surely the ECM is exaggerating the extent of the cold.. I can't really get my head around that.. it would deliver snow and cold of historical significance to some. As much as I hate that in Spring, even I have to stand back in awe and look at the ECM with my jaw collapsed on the floor. In relative terms it's more severe than December 2010 because of the time of year. So either; the models have it wrong completely.. which is unlikely, the models are showing historical winter spell in March, and who knows the probability of that.. or this will downgrade into a more conservative spell... I don't really know, but the ECM does show the most extreme output Ive seen in a long time, relative to the time of year.

In that area yes, but when you move towards the coast it warms at a faster rate, for example the record for late March here is around -6C.. if that gets broken it's a new record.. so in this situation its far easier to to break records by the coast than inland.

I don't buy the milder conditions myself, if anything it's just another potential for cold.. the GFS has consistently pushed back the mild into FI, and this seems to be a long running trend (after a few years back it was the other way around), so I would not be surprised to see any milder weather being kept in FI long into April! Things happena bit earlier here than that, usually trees are looking fresh with new growth by the end of April into early May (remembered from my many bus rides to uni!)

Yes those temperatures are just the GFS being the GFS, it's done it for the last 3 years or so, I'm pretty sure there's an algorithm in the modelling the compensates for certain factors, temperature could be one of them.. Ive lost count of the amount of times GFS has over-exagerrated the depth of cold this winter.. recording -8C when it turns out to be -1C. That said, I agree nature will be asleep for a very very long time.. I wonder how long trees will be bare for.. is there any known records?

There would be date records broken for individual places if it came off. Especially around the coast. I'm not saying national record will be broken

Whilst I accept the pattern is suggesting long term cold, maybe well beyond March and April, I'm not sure I buy the models tendency to make everything extreme, record breaking temperatures here there and everywhere.. I just don't buy it. We will see, I suspect a moderation of these extreme synoptics as we go towards the time in question. Still it will be cold for a long time.. but not extremely cold or record breakingly cold, like the models are suggesting currently.

For those that haven't seen the proper development of daffodils, there is a chance they may actually abort if this cold weather continues. Daffs are driven by seasonal timing rather than warmth, but obviously do need a certain amount of warmth to flower.. however if this cold spell last into May, or June, then Daffodils may abort. I've never known this to happen before, but if it does, it shows how rare this situation is! ps myself, I'm not sure I hold the warm summer theory, so I wouldn't be too confident in CFS forecasts. The way i see it is that were having influence by continental and blocking northern High Pressure, I think in the law of averages, and considering the individual pattern we see tend to hang around for a long time, I would put a small bet on the Atlantic returning in June to give a cool wet summer.. obviously I don't know that, but for me that's the logical evolution after this type of spell.

If the ECM turns out correct, as I suggested not last, night then this would be the coldest March mean minima in my life time here by a long way. Even the GFS and UKMO show a reversion back towards a prolonged cold scenario now. Is it feasible spring might be cut significantly short this year or maybe not occur at all? Might seem in the realms of fantasy but given how clear it is that northern blocking will be around for an age yet, it's not so far fetched

I'm surprised everyone is so quick to dismiss the UKMO, given actually I've found it fairly consistent and relatively accurate this winter, so far. The ECM has often been very unpredictable in nature, so I'm certainly not buying into it... I did recall reading somewhere, the ECM ensembles often will shadow the ECM operational, and certain in my experience of following these things, there is rarely a time when the ECM ensembles show something vastly different to it's operational run, so the ECM ensembles showing 'support', doesn't exactly suggest to me a higher chance of cold in the overall situation. I think perhaps this may be a meet in the middle situation, indeed the GFS 18z is showing the hallmarks of that potential evolution.. not to the extremes of ECM, which I would, at a risk, discount.. but nor as mild as the GFS had been showing. What this would mean is a messy, not very pleasant concoction of low-mid single figure temperatures by night, and mid-high single figure temperature by day, a distinct lack of sun and a wet, Autumnal/wintry feel to things. Eventually the Atlantic will take control but whether it's in 1 week or 1 month, is open to question. For now though, I would marginally favour a move away from exceptional cold.

Never seen them here, and my eye is always on the sky!

Nothing here, just dark skies... I don't think the Northern Lights have ever been viewed this far south.. certainly would make sense, as Ive never seen them myself.

clear skies and as a result the temperature has dropped into freefall.. currently -1.8C

Looking at it, I can only really foresee a southeasterly 'undercutting' taking place, this may well serve to prolong the cold conditions, perhaps into April. I'm not sure I buy the 'round low' scenario that would push milder air in more quickly.. time will tell though.

Already below 0C, looking odds on for the coldest night since December 2010 tonight

I'm expecting a summer containing the usual dross.