Phil Blake

Yes that would be brilliant for our region. Right at the start of my week off too

Winds would veer northwesterly as they approach Stockton @NorthEastSnow lol

A quick question on MJO while it's quiet before the 6z. The last cycle round saw the amplitude fizzle as it hit phase 6. The projections this cycle are showing it retaining amplitude through phase 6. How confident can we be that higher amplitude will be retained? I am aware the MJO is not the be all and end all but obviously a higher amplitude will have an effect to some sort of degree

Agree. And actually if you look really closely at the end of that mogreps chart for Manchester, there's quite a few members beginning to nosedive again.

Regarding the MJO it looks like it will get its skates on through phases 4 and 5. The last cycle saw it die a death as it hit the western Pacific. Are we likely to see similar on this cycle or are we expecting it to retain amplitude this time?

47 came after a very mild period. 62/63 came after a mild a stormy period. Have not read up on any other severe winters

If I'm reading it correctly not a lot.... Upper air flow coming from a northerly quadrant?

I quite often get lost in Tamara's posts (no disrespect to Tamara) but I appreciate the effort others put in to try and simplify and explain their understanding. Certainly looks like we are heading towards a period of below average temperatures. Wether that will include plenty snow to go around the whole UK will yet to be ironed out

Sorry for your loss @MATTWOLVES 3 but also thanks for your positivity over the past couple of weeks despite everything you've been going through. May your dad up there give us the best mid winter freeze we have seen for years.

TBF to Scott he had previously mentioned 2 days either side of 15th as landing point

Models won't have the timing of the retrogression nailed yet. Expect changes with each run but the general theme is the same

I think people need to bang their heads off your drum. It's hard reading this thread sometimes. The position of the high is still not nailed and output will reflect this. Left a bit. North a bit. Right a bit. The general theme is the same. High pressure generally over or close to the UK before retrogressing mid month. And again the position of the high as it moves NW will not be nailed. It'll be best to view all outputs including means/ensembles to get a broad view. Of course where HP settles is up for grabs and wherever it does could have large ramifications on the surface conditions. And in any case mother nature will do whatever she pleases so pointless getting hung up on ever single deterministic run

The knee jerk reactions is why I normally don't get involved in here. I for one will be happy with a UK high and a general drying out. The models won't have the exact position nailed yet so expect all models to still play around with the position. Retrogression still looks likely mid month as per @Scott Ingham drum. So sit back and chill out peeps

TBF you've mentioned the 15th numerous times a day for about a week now. Charts are looking great today for an extended period of below average temps

I believe nacreous clouds but nice to see this morning

Alot of people feeling very downbeat today and especially around the background signals. From what I had understood we were expecting a back loaded winter anyways so anything before hand is a bonus. Keep the faith everyone. I'm sure January and/or February will deliver something even if the models are showing turd at the moment. Also a big thanks to the ones sharing their knowledge and understanding. Been some great well written posts recently.

Rain totals must be piling up now. Supposed to rain all night too

Very wet here this morning. Temp on the car only said 1c but heavy rain driving to work at 4.30am

I normally judge a winter by the ability to build a snowman. Managed to build 2 and a snowdog. Right at the start of winter too.

Moderate snow here now

Pleased you've managed to join in this time

I'm not expecting anything here tonight. Dry day tomorrow then maybe a bit of snow Sunday night before it turns to sleet/rain Monday morning then we are looking at a cool and wet week next week.

Anything that's made it across so far has been snow here. Al be it just very light but it's given a little dusting. The issue is getting it over the Pennines

Slightly further north please lol