Skyraker

Current Netweather radar for anyone interested;

It's a slack flow to be sure but Christ on a bike is it cold. "Build it and they will come".... get the cold in and then look for snow.

I'm sorry but that's just not true mate. Look - <-- Heights to our north, just because they're not yellow. I'd crawl naked over broken glass for that to verify. That low to the NW is heading SE under the HP, carmageddon follows. Now go have a happy pill and play nicely with the other weather folk.

Just needs propping up a bit. Where is that low to the NW going then? aaaaaaaand… BOOM!

Great, I’ll wake the missus up and tell her... brb... yeah, that went as expected.

Morning ladies, There is still time for the UKMO to move west a touch, it really is about fine margins. Im looking forward to the FAX when they are updated, still on 12z atm.

For what it's worth NOAA model discussion: Model solutions show only minor differences during the initial 36 hours of the forecast period across the CONUS, which includes the deep layer cyclone offshore the West Coast that lifts gradually north off the West Coast through Thursday, and also the progressive shortwave and associated surface low that lifts from the southern Plains to the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. Thus a general model blend should suffice through about 36 hours. However, by around 12Z on Friday, more substantial differences in the model mass fields begin to emerge. In particular the 00Z GFS and 00Z CMC are seen as slow outliers with the next negatively tilted trough and intense surface low offshore of the Pacific Northwest which ultimately advances northeast into British Columbia on Saturday as a trailing cold front crosses the coastal ranges of western WA/OR. The 00Z NAM for its part appears too weak with its surface low evolution. The 00Z ECMWF has trended a bit weaker from its very strong 12Z solution and has strong support now from the 12Z ECENS. The 00Z UKMET is also very close to ECMWF/ECENS mean camp. Meanwhile, farther east, the guidance continues to struggle with the details of the amplifying shortwave trough that ejects out across the central/southern Plains on Friday and then advances east across the OH/TN Valleys and the southeast U.S. Saturday into Sunday. The 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS are on the faster side of the guidance as the energy advances east of the lower/middle MS Valley, and the 00Z GFS overall is a bit north of all of the guidance with the low track and is also seen as being a bit faster than the 00Z GEFS mean. The 00Z UKMET/CMC/ECMWF solutions are conversely a bit slower but are noted to have trended a bit more progressive with this latest cycle. Overall, the UKMET remnains the slowest solution. The 12Z ECENS mean generally favors the slower consensus, and is quite close to the deterministic ECMWF. There remains a fair amount of ensemble member spread with the low track when looking into the ensemble plots of the GEFS/Canadian guidance, and to some extent the ECENS suite which suggests a limited degree of confidence in the details of the low track timing and latitudinal placement as it moves into the eastern U.S. this weekend, but there has been at least a modest convergence of the guidance with the 00Z cycle. Based on the latest available trends and guidance, a solution toward the 12Z ECENS mean will be preferred across the Western U.S. and offshore the West Coast after 36 hours, with a solution toward a compromise of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS mean and 00Z GEFS mean across the Eastern U.S. after 36 hours. The incorporation of the GEFS mean will be out of respect for the more progressive trends at least seen out of the NAM/GFS solution over the last 24 hours.

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it. Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Or it could give us this: Feb 1991 Morning forecast Francis Wilson

Yup, didn't even check the forums, knew what would be waiting in there.

Do you beat them with exclamation marks? * I'll get me coat.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in your house on Christmas morning. *Alarm goes off* Froze were the Days: "Well it's as far away as it will ever be". All in good fun mate, just pulling your leg.

*cough* remember your lines chief.... You wait for one UKMO and two come along together

While we're waiting on the ECM, here are the Euro 4 +48 850's and DP's (presently modelled) as Fridays front slithers by.

I might put the tree back up.

Sorry blue I ballsed it up, it's correct now.. well 120.

Ladies.... UKMO FAX +144 12z *edit* sorry posted +24 by mistake, here's the +120, cant find the 144 for some reason.

UKMO +144 FAX - Radar time Look at that 528 DAM line, Dew points largely negative... C'mon FROSTY, here boy!

What time do the FAX charts get updated usually? Will show any corrections if it’s “on one”.

@Kirkcaldy Weather Wonderful post, thanks for taking the time. Cheered me right up.

I’d ask for your money back if I were you. Dreadful service.

North of a line from say Cardiff to oooh…. London.

Soon be time to start analysing the UKMO FAX to what if any corrections are made by hand. Not too fussed with the GFS Op, it just makes it up as it goes along lately. The Parallel on the other hand will make good viewing. Do you like my hat?

GFS a warm outlier > day 10, otherwise a cracking set of ensembles. *edit* Ice Day beat me to it.

Remember Ian Brown, modern winters and years without the 528 dam line breaching the borders? Those were dark times.